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I seriously believe that there is no chance at all of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict being resolved peacefully. Let me explain by showing how terrorist conflicts slowly build up.
In the 1960's, the Russians tried to get a terrorist war started against Rhodesia. They trained people and sent them to infiltrate the country. But, the security forces found out, chased them and killed them. This scenario repeated itself a few times but each time it ended in total failure, and peace was restored for a few years. Then in December 1972, a much more serious attack started. Within a few months it was obvious that this time the war was not going to stop. Eight years later, it was all over and Mugabe was in power.
A similar pattern occurred in South Africa. During the 1970's there were various infiltrations but they were taken care of. In 1976, however, there were massive communist-inspired riots in Soweto where they managed to get black children engaged in violence. This sparked serious unrest for a time, however, it was contained. All was quiet for the next six years. Then, in 1982, troubles began again. The communists had regrouped, come up with new plans and were on the attack again, but this time, it was clear there would be no end. The troubles continued for months, then years, until eventually, twelve years later, the ANC was in power.
Look at Israel. They've had problems in the past, but never have they had a conflict which continues on and on like the current one. The Palestinians, since 2000, have been in the same position which the blacks were in Rhodesia in 1972, and in South Africa in 1982. The current uprising is not ending. It has been dragging on for almost 3 years now. It should be clear to everyone that although Israel is winning the battles, it is not winning the war. Exactly the same pattern is emerging, one of world isolation. The Russian propaganda machine is hard at work portraying the Israelis as an "Apartheid state" - no doubt making the most of their successful campaign against South Africa. Israel is losing friends all the time, and the international pressure on it is increasing.
Rhodesia only had one friend - South Africa. When South Africa decided to start pulling the plug on Rhodesia, there was no question that defeat was inevitable. But, in later years, South Africa only had one friend - the USA - and it in turn pulled the plug on South Africa and brought much pressure to bear on South Africa to hand over power to the ANC.
Israel has one friend - the USA. If the USA pulls the plug on Israel, then Israel will be overwhelmed. The Israelis are outnumbered about 20:1. Alone, they will be overwhelmed by the Arabs who are armed to the teeth.
Israel is walking the path of defeat as surely as Rhodesia did, as surely as South Africa and Namibia did. The defeat of Israel is inevitable, unless people wake up and realize the many dangers. Israel may at this time appear to be militarily strong, but so was South Africa.
An Israeli correspondent wrote to me recently saying that he is concerned about the possibility of a Jewish Civil War. He said that there were strong forces at work as the Israelis were torn between war and peace. The left wants to make more concessions, and the right wants to stand and fight.
I find it difficult conveying to Americans and Europeans what it is like living in a country which is under massive clandestine communist attack. People under such attack are put under a psychological pressure which is soul-destroying. The aim is to wear you out, to divide you, to cause people to crack, and others to flee. The psychological pressure, which never ends, is aimed at dividing you internally, and depriving you of friends externally. Americans are starting to get a small taste of this as they pursue their war on terrorism. But the Israelis are far more advanced along this process and they are now in the thick of it - but more is yet to come their way.
In my book, "Government by Deception", I speak of how the weak defeat the strong. How small armies wear down a bigger opponent through low intensity war. Meanwhile the Russians use all the clandestine means at their disposal to turn up the world wide hate campaign through the mass media so that the target country is isolated and has no friends. Meanwhile, the enemies play the dialectic game. They offer a carrot - a deceptive carrot. They say "We can have peace... but first you must give us this... or give us that". They bait you. This divides one's society.
The communist propaganda portrays their allies (PLO), as the good guys, and the Israelis as the enemy. They play on the "atrocities" of the Israeli army but downplay the massive slaughter through suicide bombers. As usual, they use twisted logic and blame PLO violence on Israeli violence saying that if Israel were not the oppressor there would be no violence at all.
Israelis are now struggling - the left with the right. Should we give more? Should we fight? Such is the clever trap in which they find themselves. The USA says "Make a concession" - this might bring peace. And so it goes on.
War wears people out. The main effect of low intensity war is that it tires people out. They become war weary because the news is bad, day after day. It continues for months and then for years. There is no end in sight. People get tired. Is there a future for us? What will we do? Should we leave the country? What about our children? These are the questions flashing through one's mind daily. Thus, the enemy comes and offers you a false carrot. "Give us the West Bank, then we will be happy." Then you give them the West Bank... But I can tell you now, having lived through all this sort of thing that this is NOT where it ends. First you give this, then you give that. It never stops. People become more desperate because such concessions can be big and can weaken you militarily. Like handing over the Golan heights for example. With each negotiation, you are weaker than before.
In Government by Deception, I write about the futility of negotiation. This is a crock. It is a TOTAL WASTE OF TIME. Do not fall into the negotiation trap. Negotiation is just another word for gradual surrender. You surrender this, in the hope that it will appease them, but then you find it does not. Then they demand more. So it continues until finally you hand it all to them on a plate. So don't be fooled - negotiation is a sure path to surrender and total defeat.
The other enemy angle is to go after the main nation supporting you, in this case, the USA. If people in America can be convinced that Israel is evil, and that its behavior is morally indefensible, then of course America can cut military aid and then Israel is on the fast track to total wipeout. Thus we see, a myriad of stories about Israel, about how Israel is spying on the USA, how Israel is involved in 9/11, how Israel is an Apartheid state which murders the babies of the Palestinians. The psychological attack is on. It is on the Americans now, telling them what low-life and scum the Israelis are.
The moral attack works well. It worked on Africa. It caused the USA to stand back and let the communists dismantle all of colonialism in Africa. The USA stood back while the Russians put one dictator and one party state after another into power there. The USA was too morally pure to defend colonialism. So, Africa ended up on skid row in a mess of unbelievable proportions because no major Western country wanted to support the anti-Communists of Africa.
One must not fall for these psychological tricks, for the smearing of the Israelis. Remember, the other side is just as filthy, nay, filthier, but much of the time they hide their crimes so well you don't hear of it. Don't be fooled. If doubt is sown in America's mind about the morality of the Israelis, then that is a major enemy victory. Sadly, I see so many Americans falling for this. This must be resisted people because, rest assured, YOU AMERICANS ARE NEXT! The propaganda is already out there about how filthy capitalism is and how capitalism enables you to steal from the poor countries. You folks should stand by the Israelis, because the Israelis will stand by you. And there are a few others, like myself, who stand by the both of you because we know that in time to come, the communist propaganda will turn on you, and you will need every friend you can find. Make no mistake, we are ALL in this together, and all this propaganda is aimed at dividing us so that we do not support each other, so that the enemies of the West may slowly carve up Israel, and later America.
On Friday, I appeared on the Ridgeback Report. Robby Noel, (see www.Eaglesup.com), is the host. He is a Rhodesian now living in the USA. One of the callers spoke of how evil the USA is. I told the man to take it easy, and I warned people not to believe all sorts of slander about the US Government. This is enemy propaganda aimed at dividing people. The purpose is simple. Destroy the faith of Americans in their own system so that they do not support their government. Destroy the faith of people so that they will not enter the armed services to fight for their national interests. My word of advice to people is: Whenever you hear weird and wonderful stories about how evil your government or military are (e.g. supposed invention of AIDS), then take a deep breath and count to a hundred. Don't believe everything - no matter how good the supposed evidence. Don't rush to condemn your own country. Nine times out of ten, what you are hearing is a lie or carefully crafted disinformation. Remember, the enemy is very clever at concealing their own evil. You virtually never hear what THEY have been up to. They may be doing things 100 or 1000 times worse.
Be careful in what you believe. Let me tell you how communists operate and let me use the words of a black man who has lived through this. Jay Sibanda of the Concerned Foreign Based Zimbabwean Nationals, wrote in one of his pamphlets something like this "When we tell our leaders that we are hungry, they tell us that our stomachs are lying to us. Then we believe them." This is how the communists work. They try to make you believe that good is evil and evil is good. They mess with your head. They are trying to prove, through lies and slander, that the USA is an evil nation. They do the same with Israel.
Remember, they did all of that to us too folks. Rhodesia, South Africa, Nambia - none of these countries were anywhere as bad as YOU CAME TO BELIEVE THEY WERE. But the communists made you believe it. Now you think it is fact. But they are doing exactly the same thing to you right now, day after day. They want you to believe Israel is evil. They want you to believe you are evil - even though the success of your society stands there in front of you for you to see. But they mess with your minds and they make you believe things which common sense and everyday experience should be telling you is false.
Now you hear the never-ending story about George Bush and the oil money. A Jewish friend of mine was telling me yesterday that his sense is that capitalists want a war in Iraq. I told him to get a grip on himself.
Forget all these things. The USA and Israel do NOT want war. They are rushing off to "make peace" (false peace), which actually is helping the enemy. But it proves that they want peace - contrary to the bunk you are hearing. The ones who want war are the enemies of Israel. They are happy to engage in terrorist warfare because there is little risk of anything going wrong. They know they can slowly crank up the handle of violence. But, the transition from guerilla warfare to conventional warfare is a very dangerous thing. It can backfire tremendously. Take the Tet Offensive in Vietnam. The terrorists thought they could "go conventional", but they misjudged. The US military slaughtered them. However, the communists managed to save the day by pretending, through propaganda, that they had been successful.
The Russians and Chinese no doubt want the Arabs to overrun Israel, wipe it off the map, and have a clear victory. But, they know, that going conventional against both the USA and Israel can backfire badly. The Iraqis performed badly in the Gulf War. They must be careful that a conventional war does not result in an American/Israeli victory which could set back their efforts in the Middle East by 50 years. So they have to tread carefully.
They are cranking up the heat, and Saddam Hussein is playing a masterful game of brinkmanship. A recent book, "The Cost of Peace", describes how in February 2001, there nearly was a nuclear war in the Middle East. Saddam Hussein sent forces to the west of Iraq. Intelligence sources discovered that they were making preparations to fire missiles at Israel. The USA and Israel immediately put their forces on alert and the US even launched air attacks. The only thing which caused Saddam to stand down were clandestine messages from Britain and France which told him that the Israelis were ready to hit Saddam's forces with neutron bombs. That caused him to back down.
Interestingly, Communist China, that "friend" of America, has been involved in upgrading the Iraqi air defenses which are responsible for shooting at US Planes! There is a report from Australia which has been ignored by the mass media, that Nelson Mandela approves the selling of equipment by South Africa to Iraq to assist their nuclear program! This is continuing and President Bush is apparently furious! As I have been saying for the last 10 years, to anyone who would listen, the African National Congress in South Africa, including Nelson Mandela are not friends of the USA! (see http://www.newaus.com.au/aatemp349mandela.html)
I find it worrying that the USA and Israel still believe that concessions will bring peace. You can have peace conferences up to your eyeballs, but it will not help. Israel is being boiled slowly like a frog. The USA will be as well.
If ever there was a time for people to have CLEAR HEADS, and to keep their cool, it is NOW. Stick to the things you know and the people you trust. Trust your fellow countrymen. Trust in your national interests. Do not be so quick to listen to the nonsense which comes from other sources which undermine your faith in your nation, your President and your proven historical friends. Your enemies are trying to trick you. They are very good at it. They are masters at it, and if you listen too much to what they say you may come to believe it. But listen to someone who has seen this happening, and do not believe it.
Here in South Africa, the Liberals were quick to want negotiation. But it was the Liberals who fled the country in large numbers. It was the Liberals who became the most vocal critics of the new order. It was the Liberals and the Left who were proven to be the useful idiots. In Zimbabwe, it is the Liberals who are being wiped off the map.
The enemy's psychological warfare is taking its toll, even on such experienced military people like Prime Minister Sharon.
When in doubt, defend your country and defend your interests. When in doubt, stand and fight. Do not spend time negotiating with the enemy who asks you to disarm but who will not disarm himself in return. In Julius Caesar's Gallic Wars, he tells the story of two different Centurions, each commanding a Legion who met up with an enemy who asked them to disarm and negotiate. In both cases, the enemy outnumbered them. The one centurion, whom Caesar describes as a coward, did so. He laid down his weapons and went to talk. The enemy killed him and then attacked his legion and decimated them. The other Centurion said to the enemy "It is not the custom of the Roman people to parley with an armed enemy". If the enemy was not prepared to lay down their arms, then he was not prepared to speak to them. So he ended up fighting, against tremendous odds, but he and his men survived.
An Israeli correspondent tells me that from his side news is that there is a more than 50% chance that the Arab nations might jump in on the side of Iraq during a war. A US Artillery Officer who was in the Gulf War, told me that most of the Arab armies are pretty useless, including Saddam's army, but that the Egyptians have a very impressive force. Jeff Nyquist told me that the main Arab army which can give the Israelis a hard time, is the Egyptian army. And it is clear from the report of this US Officer who was there and who saw them up close, that the Egyptian army is well led, and well organized and if they jump into the fight then things will be very tough. It seems to me as if the Russians and Chinese are hoping that the USA or Israel, will stumble somewhat, so that they can unleash the Arabs. Herein lies the only real danger for a much wider conflict. I have also heard that the Germans and Russians have also been helping Iraq a lot.
I will write more about the Gulf War in the coming weeks as I get more info and talk to more people. However, at this stage, it seems as if the pressure is on Israel, and the main concern is that things do not explode into a regional war. However, if things do explode into a regional war, and the Russians, Chinese and Arabs miscalculate, then things can go horribly wrong for them. In a short space of time, 50 years worth of work might go down the tubes. If the situation bogs the USA down for long enough then China might be tempted to attack Taiwan, and North Korea might attack South Korea. This is the sort of knife-edge things are on. If a regional war is averted this year, then it may visit us in the future. However, to my mind, a regional war may be inevitable, and it may be the only way to get rid of the tremendous arms build-up and all the terrorists in the region which the Russians have been sponsoring for so long.
Our best hope is that the enemies of Israel miscalculate, start a war, and then the war goes all wrong for them. There is a definite hope for this since most of the Arab armies fare badly in conventional conflict.
My thoughts and prayers are with the people of Israel, and I hope they can survive. They are a clever and resourceful people and I have hope for them. Bizarre as it may sound, a conventional (and even nuclear war), for all its horrors might be the only path open for Israel's survival because the way things are going, this piecemeal surrender is a definite path to defeat.
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