I don't have a checklist, but I'll share my personal "bellwether" races:
1. NC Senate, Dole Vs. Bowles - a Bowles win will mean tough sledding for GOP Senate candidates to the west
2. MA Governor - Romney vs. O'Brien - I see a Romney win as a hint of a Republican tide
3. KY-03 House - Northup vs. Conway - If Northup holds off the fast-charging Conway, if looks good for GOP intensity
4. FL Governor - Bush vs. McBride - a resounding Bush victory will again confirm the intensity of the GOP turnout
Taken together, these races should give an idea of the evening's trends. I expect relatively early calls for this group.
For myself, I intend to vote early and pray a lot. :-)
Tony
You might add MD governor and MD-02 to your list of bellweather races. An Ehrlich win would be the first for a Republican in Maryland in over 30 years, he lead 51-46% in the last poll, and the 2nd is a tight race between good candidates for Ehrlich's open seat. If the GOP can win these in one of the most democratic states in the nation.....