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The incument starts with huge advantages that should make him very difficult to defeat. We know his name, and we should feel at least somewhat comfortable with him. He also starts with enormous power and a massive fundraising advantage, as we have seen with Davis.

So if he can't get over 50% based on those facts alone, he's considered vunerable to a challenge. If you have more than 50% approval, as a general rule you won't have much trouble with re-election.

In this particular election, the incumbent has mismanaged his administration so badly that he is highly vunerable despite these advantages. The fact that he's below 50% means that there are a lot of undecided people, or that the challenger himself is popular.

In this case, Davis has managed to (unfairly) damage the image of the challenger, Bill Simon. The Simon campaign has also made a few key mistakes which make it appear significantly weaker than it actually is. However, the memory of those mistakes is fading, and Davis scandals are now popping up with considerable regularity. As a result, it's not surprising that Bill Simon's numbers are climbing, with the Davis numbers stagnant. The undecideds were looking for any excuse to dump Davis, and it looks like many have succeeded.

Does that give you a better idea of what's going on?

D