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We have to take 2 in the Senate because of Chafee and McCain.

That is just not true. If this year is a dead heat or one like 2000, there will be no switches.

Jeffords looked at the odds. The odds in 2000 said the Democrats take the Senate in 2000 they will not lose it until 2004. Jeffords was counting on off year elections in 2002. From Jeffords standpoint he saw himself with the choice of being in the Majority for 2 years then the Minority for 2 if he stayed a Republican. Jeffords was sure he would be in majority for at least 4 years if he jumped. He is about to learn that He traded being in the majority for 4 years for being in the majority for 2.

Watching your buddy make a very dumb decision is not a lot of motivation for others to follow him down that failed path.

This time the odds say jump ship and be out of the game in 2004. No one thinks Saddam will be standing and the economy hurting in 2004. Eeeryone understands that 2004 will be very much like 1984 only more so. A popular president running for relection picks up several senate seats. That says Chaffeee bye bye power in 2004. They all expect the Republicans to have the senate from 2004 to 2006 and very likely 2008.

Trading 4 years to get 2 or at most 4 years is a bad bet. If Chaffee leaves he will be in the minority in 2004. He may stay in the minority for the rest of his career.

You are not thinking like Chaffee. Chaffee had the same offer Jeffords did. Chaffee turned it down last time. This time they will not have as good a deal to offer as they did 2000.

He turned us down last time... all they can do is offer him less this time and see if he takes it...That rarely makes a sale

With McCain there is just one question on his mind. What can I do to become President. Turn Democrat and defeat Hillary and her side kick bill for the nomination in 2008? Or play loyal to bush and go for the pubbie nomination in 2008. Who will have media support and not much opposition for the presidential nomination in 2008 as a Pubbie. Who would fear a Ron Brown plane ride in 2008 if he tried it as a Democrat. McCain running for the Repubican nomination in 2008. He can't do that as a Democrat. He won't get the nomination .... but he thinks he can. And that is all that counts.

Chaffee and McCain will not jump. They would get nothing if they jump that they would not get if they stay. And McCain might as well retire if he jumps. Hillary would have him destroyed before he could say the New York Times.