The internal party polls are right on the money.
ON election day 2000 Al Gore broke a long tradition of not campaigning on election day. Al Gore got on his plane in Illinois and went to a state to campaign on Election day itself.
What state was that?
The answer is Florida.
What little bird told Gore that on the final day in the final hour he should go to Florida to campaign? You don't suppose his internal polls showed that state would decide the race do you? You don't suppose the polls told him that if he could pick up a few of thousand votes, it might be enough to win... do you? He almost got it done.
And When they all called Florida for Gore .. how did Bush know it was not true? He called to tell them it was not true. How did he know? You dont' suppose that Bush's internal polls told him he had a tiny slim lead do you?
The fact is the media polls told us in 1980 the race was way to close to call. But the night before election Hamilton Jourdan told Jimmy Carter there was no way he could win. The polls had for weeks shown a big Reagan win and the final poll showed his campaiging had made no change. Just a couple of hours earlier Lyn Nafziger and others had sat down with Reagan on his plane to tell him that nothing had changed.. He had a big lead and was on his way to a huge landslide. The media told us the polls said too close to call. Jimmy Carter tells about learning of his loss in his autobiography. Several people have written about giving Reagan the good news. I think the media did not want to hear it.
The same was true in 84, 88, 92, and 96. The internal polls told both sides what was really happening.
I believe both sides know exactly what is going to take place. Back in 1994 I was in the media. I talked to a Democrat chaiman of an important House committee a day before the election. He told me "The damned Republicans are going to win the house." I was surprised. All the wire and network stories said the Democrats would hold the house by 15 to 20 seats. I asked, "By 2 or 3 seats?" He said, "More like 16 to 20." It was very like 20.
I suspect the Repubicans knew it too. I know the Democrats did.
I really think from all the signs that this is going to be close election. The Repubicans will do well in the House and the Senate will be won by one or 2 seats.
Anyone else remember what other races he said we'd win/lose?
I think that, under this analysis, the same would be true in California where the presstitutes will trumpet a Fields poll showing a Grayout 7 point lead, but nothing from Grayout or Simon's internal tracking numbers. It is for that reason that I think that Simon's hanging in there and Grayout is not the given that the press would make one think.
Another point you make that is very valid, IMHO, is the impression we as outsiders get from what is going on. The Rats are turning to the courts at every opportunity and becoming shriller in their attacks. This is a good sign. I agree that the GOP is the happier of the two parties and only hope that they realize the war is on and not to stop until the last vote is cast. I don't think they will. One or two seats for the GOP in the Senate is definitely a realistic assessment, to this untrained eye.
Thanks again for the comments and have a great weekend....
The race between Simon and Davis is going to be very close. I think last month I predicted Simon by 2-3 pts. I think it's Simon by 1, 45 to 44 with 6 for Camejo and 5 split among all the other candidates. Very, very close. Close enough where cheating could make a difference. Everyone needs to be vigilent at their polls and watch for improprieties. Volunteer to be a poll watcher in solid Dem areas. Democrats have stolen races in California before, particularly in the Central Valley. We need to make sure they can't steal the governorship.
Funny, I seem to recall it was more like 54 in the house.