Socialism here we come - Oregon Voters Will Decide On Universal Health Care

WSJ.com ^

[vollmond]

Now where's my Soma!

Soma has been legalized on the state level for medicinal purposes, but is still on the federal list of banned substances. So basically, you're getting a Brave New World without the happy pills.

[B Knotts]

Ain't gonna pass.

They'll try again, though. Probably in California or Massachusetts.

They went after us first, because Oregon is a small state, so you don't need to get as many signatures to get something on the ballot. And these bozos don't have any money. Yet.

[citizenK]

Such social programs, of course, are part and parcel of the goals of socialism as its adherents press forward to greater and greater control of the state over the individual.

Exactly.
Any government scheme based on a "rob Peter to pay Paul" ethos is properly categorized as socialism of one kind or another.

Those who fervently believe in the goodness of socialism...

Two distinct groups of people support socialism in this country. One group supports socialism because they have not thought through the issues. The other group views socialism as a religion - as you put it they fervently believe in socialism. As someone else on this thread suggests, the liberals (socialists) never learn from past mistakes, and this "religious belief" is the reason. This latter group will never change their minds/hearts where it comes to socialism. Our only hope is that these people are relegated to being a minority of voters.

Overall, you put a lot of issues into perspective. Thanks for such a good response.

Thanks for saying so, I appreciate that my comments here were well received.

[ER_in_OC,CA]

I am rooting hard for this initiative to pass in Oregon. I truly want OR to institute socialized medicine in the USA.

Don't get me wrong: I'm a libertarian-leaning Republican who is confident this program would be an abhorrent failure.

So, why am I for it?
-I want OR to give the rest of America a fresh, personal lesson in the ineffectiveness of socialized medicine.
-I want the jobs and skilled employees which left CA for OR to return.
-I don't have any family or close personal friends in Oregon...

Sadly, I am interested in sitting and watch Oregon self-destruct with a crushing tax burden caused by this program.

Liberty-loving Oregonians -- move to AZ, NV, CO, or ID soon!

[ER_in_OC,CA]

CA typically votes overwhelmingly against ballot propositions which increase taxes.

CA typically votes in favor of around half of the ballot initiatives (especially those which are titled "clean water" and "safe kids") which are bond offerings, which inevitably lead to an increase in taxes. But the tax impact of these bond initiatives is hard for the typical voter to comprehend.

The tax impact of this freebie is too easy to understand, and CA would vote 62/38 against. Remember, CA voted for 187 (deny illegal immigrants from participating in state programs) and 209 (ending race-based preferences).

So, I would expect, that if defeated, the people behind this measure would re-word and try again in OR.

Here's hoping this thing passes. Maybe the local charity organizations can charter buses up to Portland?

[B Knotts]

Can you explain why you think this could pass in Oregon, but not in California? Oregon is more conservative that California. We actually have a Republican U.S. Senator, and both houses of our state legislature are controlled by the G.O.P.

[ER_in_OC,CA]

My confidence that this wouldn't pass in CA is stronger than my confidence that it will pass in OR.

Again, I would predict a 60% vote against this measure in CA. Perhaps OR will do the same.

Let me restate:
-CA's pattern of voting on ballot-initiatives shows a strong distrust in measures such as this, especially when tax impact is so obvious (read my last post for a bit more detail.) Spending measures and bond intiatives frequently fail here because of this approach.

-CA has voted strong Dem for office runs because of demagoguery agaist social-conservative positions by politicians. The average CA resident's 'love' of abortion is a huge traction-gainer for the Demos. Plus, Dems play the "Republicans-hate-Mexicans" race-baiting game. Ballot propositions don't face these problems.

-Since OR voted for euthanasia, I assumed that the OR approach to ballot initiatives is "less conservative." Correct me if I'm wrong.

Sorry to be such a crank for hoping this passes, but I'd rather your Eugene-freaks run this experiment in OR than our Berkeley freaks do this for CA.

[Carry_Okie]

It sure is nice to see that there really is a state that is dumber than California.

[Carry_Okie]

It sure is nice to see that there really is a state that is dumber than California.

[Dr Warmoose]

It won't necessarily be "the rich" who would leave Oregon. it will be the producers, who, when the time is ripe, and opportunity elsewhere exists, that the 15% tax on ~income~ will play a consideration in their career goals.

It will be more difficult for businesses to attract young (and indestructable) high achievers, unless they have bought into the "work hard so others can play" mentality that is being beaten into the skulls of today's students.

If I had serious health problems, and a marketable skill that was in demand in that area, I would seriously consider relocating. Many insurance companies don't like to cover pre-existing conditions (for obvious reasons), so my real income we probably be greater in Oregon than elsewhere because much of my income would be to cover diseases.

Here is where Oregon stands to get in real trouble. Because Oregon is on the west coast and easily accessable by the bulk of humanity from Asia, Oregon will likely be heavily advertised in Chinese and Vietnamese health clinics, complete with names and prices of cargo ship operators that have room in storage for those seeking medical asylum.

Given that the Bush administration is working feverishly with the Hate America First cabal to guarentee that this country will be overrun with refugees from the turd world in order to bankrupt us by selfishly exploiting our Christian heritage of charity and mercy, Oregon has front row seats to this spectacle and I seriously doubt that they can maintain any respectable credit rating without jacking up income tax to the high 30% in order to underwrite this.

Also, because the turd world brings in the worst diseases, the hospitals will be on the bleeding edge of epidemics and expensive heart and organ disease transplants. I can't help to think that Oregon, in their attempts to reign in costs, will insult the medical workers with low pay and grueling hours, and will ration out health care based on some liberal formula that invariably discriminates against whites, and favors the politically connected and "the downtrodden" no matter how illegal their residency status. In no time, the few remaining people with jobs will be begging for even the worst HMO plan, but to no avail because government programs live forever as they accumulate more and more supporters (read:freeloaders) as each day passes by.

Maybe that euthenasia law will help thin out the older generation - who would otherwise be their cheif customers.

Personally, I believe Oregon is probably the best state to commit suicide in this way. The state is beautiful, and the wackos there have been somewhat successful in running off any business that might offend their caveman sensibilities. If you don't have any income (ie. don't work), then the state is great place to be because you get temperate weather, great views, and soon free healthcare. Your neighbors will be illiterate welfare recipients, and you will never have to worry about getting hit by foreign attack since no one would care to waste a good bomb on such a poor military target.

[Dr Warmoose]

You should continue on with the outcome snowballing into something worse.

With the high achievers leaving there will be a downward pressure on high end home prices. The local taxing authorities will not be amused.

With the influx of low/no income people, "affordable" (read: Section 8) housing will spark a building boom, turning nice neighborhoods into slums within a decade. With a greater population in lower revenue properties, the police/fire/garbage/water/schooling/parks services will need to increase with decreasing or stagnant revenues.

Low income people usually drag along a litter of children who will need schooling and a plethora of welfare and handouts. Supidity and sloth is congenital so the quality of education should also fall.

With an increasing dependant population, there will be a greater need for social workers, who are invariably socialists and will depend on their government jobs as their source of income. This will attract yet more antiAmericans to the state.

Socialists usually screw things up even worse when they assume power. Since the few remaining conservatives will not be able to elect any sensible politicians into office, expect profound levels of corruption that always accompany liberal leadership.

With more and more expenses, from dwindling resources, there will of course be begging and lobbying of the Feds to disguise this insanity by spreading it around the country. But until the other states sign onto this suicide pact, tax money will be diverted from non-liberal causes to liberal causes. So expect the roads to get worse and the quality of service for many other things to spiral down.

You also mentioned administrative costs that you believe will start at 20%. I think this is rather low guess, and will certainly ramp up quickly as unemployed insurance employees will be screaming for gigs. Some Napolean will want to centralize, which will mean huge expenditures in getting Perot Systems or EDS to install a massive computer systems to handle the data. And as with all governments, there will be the centralization of data, the necessary state ID cards issued in the name of "controling fraud", and a patronage system that you wouldn't believe.

There is also the problem with the fact that not all people are created equal. This also is found in the fact that not all doctors graduate Valedictorian. That means that some doctors will be better than others. When the public is told that Health Care is a Right, this will also mean that the Best Health Care is a Right, and why see Dr. Joe who just squeaked by on his finals when we can see the state's best Dr. Suzy? So naturally rationing will occur there, and that is when the bitching and corruption really starts. For everyone will demand that in this supposedly egalitarian society that they must see the best for their particular type of hangnail. The screams of racism, sexism, discrimination of this, prejudice against that - particularly since the demographic for the Jerry Springer show will dominate there.

Sit back and laugh as Oregon is the nation's vacuum cleaner, sucking up all of the human debris and bagging it in the People's Paradise of Oregon.

[B Knotts]

Well, I have lived in both states (California for 14 years, Oregon for 6).

They're similar politically in many ways, except that Oregon is more competitive on a partisan basis. Both states have very conservative rural areas, with very liberal urban areas and college towns.

Ballot measures in both states succeed when they cut taxes, and fail when they try to raise taxes.

The urban elite in both states are somewhat ambivalent about taxation, but have a strong distaste for social conservatism.

I would be surprised if this gets 40% yes, and would guess it will be closer to 30-35%.

Our main problem in Oregon is liberal judges who have frustrated the will of the voters on term limits and property rights (we actually passed a fairly radical property rights initiative that requires the (state or local) gov't to reimburse propery owners if the value of their land is reduced by gov't regulations). If we pass Measures 21 & 22, we will begin dealing with that problem. Measure 21 allows a "None of the Above" vote when state Supreme Court and Court of Appeals judges run unopposed, and Measure 22 creates districts for those same justices and judges, meaning we would have someone on the bench from elsewhere than Portland and Salem.

[citizenK]

You are right about using the term "producers" instead of the term "the rich." But the government (especially Clintonite holdovers) thinks that anyone making over 40k is rich, so that would be just about anyone with the ability to keep a decent job.

Your point about the people with pre-existing medical conditions is well taken. Folks in this situation would find some benefit to socialized medicine, like you said.

Another interesting point raised about young people with the potential for high achievement. Kids coming out of university over the past decade appear to place high value on working for non-profits. Many kids in college today are buying into the idea that making a profit is a bad thing.

Also, your assessment of the exposure to immigration problems is another interesting dilemma facing OR should this initiative pass. Illegal aliens will contribute to the stress on the delivery of medical services.

As someone else suggested in a previous message on this thread, if this initiative passes, OR may also have problems attracting skilled medical practioners. If you were a doctor, would you invest in a specialized clinic under such a system? For example, OR may have trouble finding doctor groups willing to make large investments and take risks on the development of specialized services like MRIs, cardiac clinics, and cancer treatment centers. Think of Canada to imagine the availability of new facilities and treatment centers for OR if this proposal passes.

[Kozak]

The 15-member board would include 10 elected members and five appointed by the Oregon governor. The board would negotiate with health-care practitioners and establish quality and cost control.

Negotiate. Yeah like Cows negotiate with the slaughter house. The state will license providers, regulate providers and NOW will be the ONLY source of income. Some negotiating position for the providers.

[Kozak]

How exactly do you "negotiate" once you have declared that you are going to pay 100% of whatever it costs?

Easy. You pay what ever you feel like paying. When the doctor and hospital bills you, you pay the % YOU decide on. When you are the only payer and the government to boot, it's your call. Thats what Medicare has been doing for years. Participation is mandatory for docs, and we can't bill the patients.

[Dr Warmoose]

"...attracting skilled medical practitioners..."

Good choice of words too. Lets think about it. Many doctors specialize because there is more money in a speciality than there is in a general practice. This means that these kinds of doctors are also motivated by a profit motive. Now if you were a good doctor, wouldn't you want to live in an area that would be nice to live in, and pays a handsome wage? I don't believe that Oregon intends to compete in the market for the cream of the crop since those folks will likely be too pricey since demand for there skills permits them to live anywhere they want. So who does that leave? Those who would make more money in Oregon as an overworked doctor handling plenty of GOMERs (Get Out of My Emergency Room) then they would anywhere else on the planet.

Free health care provided by Mack the Quack. What an improvement.

[AFPhys]

I have been crossing my fingers and hoping this would pass, too. It would be the best way to demonstrate this experiment. I agree with some here that there would be incredible pressure for the Fed.govt. to bail them out when the costs end up being more like 119B$ than 19B$, but a partial bail-out early seems like a bargain to me compared to the inevitable pressure for HitleryCare eventually. I view this as "a stitch in time..."

I was not aware of the delay in implementation. If it got passed now, I have a strong suspicion it would be vetoed by the bulk of the population in the next 2 years as they witness the preparatory demographic changes, and the costs and benefits become more well defined.

I am very, very much saddened that the polls are running so strongly against this. I really would hate to see a larger state, like CA, do this first.

Thanks for posting the article.

[packrat01]

How'd this turn out?