Posted on 10/26/2002 7:32:05 AM PDT by Valin
It may be, but it's difficult to picture a way that that happens. If Talent wins in November (an event that I believe became less likely yesterday) then the Republicans would have a numerical majority during any lame duck session, with or without Wellstone. If Talent loses, then the Democrats still have a numerical majority (49 + 1 to 49), unless Ventura appoints a Republican to finish Wellstone's term (an event that I consider extremely unlikely.) And I think Wellstone was probably going to win, but the odds of Coleman winning actually got longer yesterday. I don't see this event helping the Republicans at all, over any time span...
Typical Dem M.O. They are postive that is THEIR seat; now they're trying to figure out a way to get it done, legal or not.
If the market wants the Republicans to control the Senate, why would it surge on news of Wellstone's death, an event that makes Republican control less likely? I don't think Coleman was going to beat Wellstone alive, but he's got no shot of beating him dead, whether it's his name or Humphrey's or Mondale's on the ballot.
Not only does this hurt the Republicans in Minnesota, it has a chance of significantly hurting the Republicans in Missouri, by kicking up the Carnahan-sympathy factor again. I just don't see any reason to think that Wellstone's death helps the Republicans in any way...
I think this is an incorrect reading of the statute. I believe that Wellstone's name cannot be on the ballot. The statute states that his name must be removed from the general ballot. The statute allows the Dem's to nominate a candidate and have his name placed on a supplement ballot. Also, the Wellstone absentee ballots cannot count for the replacement candidate, this is a definite disadvantage for the Dems.
The above seems to fly in the face of all the other sections of MN code I've read...... but the following is very interesting regarding the successor.....
http://www.revisor.leg.state.mn.us/st02/204D/28.html204D.28 United States senate vacancy; manner of filling. [excerpt]
Subd. 11. Temporary appointment. The governor may make a temporary appointment to fill any vacancy. An appointee shall hold office until a successor is elected and qualified at a special election or until a successor is elected pursuant to subdivision 12.
Subd. 12. Succession by regularly elected senator. An individual who is elected to the office of United States senator for a regular six-year term when the office is vacant or is filled by an individual appointed pursuant to subdivision 11, shall also succeed to the office for the remainder of the unexpired term.
Other sections ......
204B.13 Vacancy in nomination.
Subd. 6. Vacancy after deadline. If a candidate withdraws after the 16th day before the general election but before four days before the general election, the secretary of state shall instruct the election judges to strike the name of the withdrawn candidate from the general election ballot and shall substitute no other candidate's name. Filing officers may not accept a nomination certificate for filing to fill a vacancy in nomination resulting from the filing of an affidavit of withdrawal by a candidate after the 14th day before the general election. Vacancies occurring through death or catastrophic illness after the 16th day before the general election are governed by section 204B.41. {bold my add}
204B.41 Vacancy in nomination; changing ballots.
When a vacancy in nomination occurs through the death or catastrophic illness of a candidate after the 16th day before the general election, the officer in charge of preparing the ballots shall prepare and distribute a sufficient number of separate paper ballots which shall be headed with the words "OFFICIAL SUPPLEMENTAL BALLOT." This ballot shall contain the title of the office for which the vacancy in nomination has been filled and the names of all the candidates nominated for that office. The ballot shall conform to the provisions governing the printing of other official ballots as far as practicable. The title of the office and the names of the candidates for that office shall be blotted out or stricken from the regular ballots by the election judges. The official supplemental ballot shall be given to each voter when the voter is given the regular ballot or is directed to the voting machine. Regular ballots shall not be changed nor shall official supplemental ballots be prepared as provided in this section during the three calendar days before an election. Absentee ballots that have been mailed prior to the preparation of official supplemental ballots shall be counted in the same manner as if the vacancy had not occurred. Official supplemental ballots shall not be mailed to absent voters to whom ballots were mailed before the official supplemental ballots were prepared. 204B.41
You assume too much. Wellstone was polling at far less than 50%. Dick Morris correctly pointed out that an incumbent who polls less than 50% at this point in the race is in big trouble.
You may think Wellstone was in a position to win but his campaign was worried, special interest groups were worried and the Socialist Party was helping him out by encouraging voter fraud. I think he was worried and we will hear more about that later, especially if the fraud on the reservations (already uncovered in SD) is exposed.
Why the dems are not pounding this in ads is beyond me. There are thousands upon thousands of construction jobs waiting upon terrorism insurance........
Too bad that Trent Lott is so spineless.
I'm not "assuming" anything. I'm expressing my opinion. I didn't expect Coleman to win in Minnesota. I expected Wellstone to win re-election.
Wellstone was polling at far less than 50%.
I don't think 46-47% is "far less" than 50%. Zogby had him at 41% in mid-September, in what looks like a bad poll, because he was 46-47% with a 3-9 point lead in the rest of the polls that I've seen.
Dick Morris correctly pointed out that an incumbent who polls less than 50% at this point in the race is in big trouble.
Obviously, as a general rule, an incumbent polling under 50% is in more trouble than one polling over 50%. But it's not an absolute that an incumbent under 50% two weeks out is going to lose. It's not an absolute that the undecided all go to the challenger. And Coleman's not an unknown. He failed to break 35% in the Governor's race 4 years ago. He's run statewide and lost. In my opinion, Wellstone would have won this race had he not died. We'll obviously never know, but that's my opinion on it.
Where are you getting that?
Others mentioned as possible replacements included Wellstone's son, David, Democratic U.S. Reps. Martin Sabo and James Oberstar, Minnesota Supreme Court Justice Alan Page, former Secretary of State Joan Growe, former DFL gubernatorial candidate Mike Freeman, former U.S. Senate candidates Rebecca Yanisch and Mike Ciresi, former state Attorney General Hubert Humphrey III, State Auditor Judi Dutcher and even Hatch.
I don't personally believe that his son is a strong contender and the mention maybe nothing more than a test to see if it plays. I think it will be someone with statewide name recognition already....
It depends on how lucky they feel.
A) Their plans have been made public,
B) so they can reasonably assume that our Republican Secretary of State will be watching for them therefore increasing the risk, which
C) if worth taking for Wellstone may not be worth taking for Mondale so
D) they are probably waiting for orders or have made plans to break some other law that doesn't involve a trip across the border.
Whoops... they are both 30 or over according to this article and would qualify......
LOL... not necessarily supposed to make sense don'tcha see. The object is to control the office and not always with the most qualified candidate... Isn't politics grand?
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