[elfman2]

I think they're split. My limited experience with several Taiwanese and Chinese roommates for a couple of years in collage supports the idea that the independence movement is weak. There's a stronger link with China than to capitalist/libertarian western ideals. The oldest and most politically active of the bunch expressed his hope to me that the US would not invade if China did take his little country. It wasn't that he didn't want immediate democracy and freedom, he just thought that the price of a land battle there would be too high, and figured China would settle into its own version of freedom and reform over time.

Nevertheless, it would probably never come to that. We could probably hold off a Chinese invasion with less than 10% of our Navy. They don't have the sea power or experience to pull it off.

[Quix]

I think it depends on how the independence issue is couched. . . and the contingencies involved.

If they could have a sort of Commonwealth approach where they had their own defense policy and system etc. and Beijing wouldn't be too interferring--most of them would go for it in a flash.

I don't know how many are willing to risk how much to defend and independent Taiwan. It would depend on a lot of factors at the time.

[Quix]

They heretofore HAVEN'T HAD the sea capacity. That's a problem they are rapidly correcting. Along with the capacity to sink our aircraft carriers etc.