To: aristeides
Well, one of the reasons that they haven't found this guy yet, is that one guy, in millions of people is almost impossible to find, if you don't know who you are looking for. The reason it seems that he knows in advance what the police are doing is two fold: 1. He is well trained and knows what he is doing. His training could come from most anywhere. But nonetheless, he is well trained and well studied. Further he is calculated. He is well planned, and he knows what he wants to do. I would liken it to a football game. The coaches prepare a game plan based on what they know of the opponent. This comes from a lot of study of game films and just general knowledge of the fundamentals of the game. Then as the game unfolds, they follow their game plan. And as long as they stay with the plan, then things usually go as they planned if they are good. 2. As I have said before, he is setting the agenda. he is in control of the game. Only he knows where he will hit next. Only he knows how he will do it. Only he (and I use "he" in generic sense, probably more on his team, but not many)And only he knows the timing. The LEAs are reacting, not acting. When you are forced to only react, then you loose all control. And it is hard to make one guy, or 2 or 3 react to you. but it isn't hard to make 100s of LEOs to react to you.
A question was asked earlier if AQ would make demands like the ones we may be seeing. Well, that begs the question of whether this has to be AQ to be foreign terrorist. Remember, there are a lot of other groups that would love to get in on the hunt besides AQ. Islamic Jihad, PLO, etc. Not to mention the eastern European terrorist organizations. And you cannot even discount the possiblity that it is Sinn Fein. I doubt it is an IRA type group, but they do use snipers quite a lot over there. The point is, we just don't know enough there. we cannot be closed minded as to the possible suspect or his possible political motives. Unless the LEAs know more than we know, which is possible. However, the question was asked if there were ever demands made by AQ. Well, I seem to remember, or believe, that some of the PLO, Islamic Jihad, etc groups have made demands to Israel, and US to do this or that, in exchange for the stoppage of suicide bombings. The release of prisoners. The repudiation of this group or that. The Iranians have been very good at that tactic also. So the possible demands are not that out of the realm of possibility. However, have we considered the thought that they are not so much demands as they are just statements. Statements of the crimes that the West has committed, and that punishment is coming, or ongoing. I don't know. Just brainstorming.
As to the suggestions that Moose is the one the perp wants out front, or that they are targeting him. I doubt that senerio completely. Remember, until there is sufficient evidence for the inescapable conclusion that terrorism is the real MO, then these crimes are just murders. And as such, they fall under the perview of the local authorities. yes, they have occurred in multiple states, but still, they are local. With that in mind, then the feds have no jurisdiction to take over the investigation. They can offer assistance, but they technically don't have jurisdiction to intervene. So, Moose, being the lucky one, to have the first murders in the jurisdiction over which he has authority, was the first out front. And it is not uncommon for that person to remain the spokesman. His jurisdiction would get first crack against the perp if this isn't terrorism. If it is just some wacko, then Moose's county will get the guy first. And add to the fact that normally the FBI is not that camera hungry. After the problems they have had in recent years, the less camera time they can get the better. And the ATF, well, they are such an odd bunch, they almost never want camera time. During my years in LE, I had several joint cases with the FBI and the ATF, and even DEA. And in those cases, the Federal agents would defer press statements to us state level types. If the feds did want to make a statement, it usually came from the US attorney for that jurisdiction. But again, that was only if there were going to be federal charges filed. It is too early here for that. I just don't read much if anything into that. He is a camera hound. That much is obvious. Somewhat reminds me of some of the stunts there were performed during the OJ mess. A lot of locals grabbing for camera time. Wanting their 15 minutes.
And while I'm on the media statement issue. Please be wary of any witness statements that you see or hear from supposed witnesses talking to the media. From my experience, if you have a witness who calls CNN or MSNBC or whoever, just before, or after talking to the LEAs, then really, really temper what that witnesses is saying. Because that witness has an agenda. That is 15 minutes of fame. Thus, they will hedge, and shake and bake to say what they think will get them on the tube. That way they can call mom and pop and say, "hey, I'm on CNN". I hated that when I was prosecuting cases. It was a disaster.
With that in mind, we should likewise be somewhat wary of the white van, with ladder rack also. After the first shooting, OK. But I can tell you, if the police had said they were looking for a yellow submarine, then each subsequent shooting, someone would come forward saying they saw a guy driving a yellow submarine leaving at a high rate of speed. The more that white van talk is out there, the more they will be spotted. Is the perp using a white van? Hey, could be. But I just wouldn't make that much out of it at this point. There have been so many variations on that point, that they cannot be all true, unless this guy has a whole fleet of vans parked at his house, which would be pretty obvious. His is driving something that is very plain and unremarkable. Don't get lost on that.
sorry for the long post, just a lot of random thoughts running through my head at this point.
Still thinking.
To: yukong
Good, thoughtful post.
The killer does appear to be coldly-calculating and cautious. However, he also seems to have a thirst for publicity and a tendency to make the dramatic gesture--hence the tarot card and the disguised-voice telephone message. If he is undone at all, it will likely be due to his vanity and overweening personal need for attention.
And everybody's primed hair-trigger for a white van now. He could be sitting in the bushes waiting to fire until a white van passes near the victim. There are ten thousand ways he could mask his position and escape method and route.
To: yukong
The more that white van talk is out there, the more they will be spotted. Is the perp using a white van? Hey, could be. But I just wouldn't make that much out of it at this point. There have been so many variations on that point, that they cannot be all true, unless this guy has a whole fleet of vans parked at his house, which would be pretty obvious. His is driving something that is very plain and unremarkable. Don't get lost on that.I agree -- common sense would dictate that the sniper(s) wouldn't be driving a white van anymore, if they ever did -- but the white van/truck image has practically been imprinted into the public and police consciousness by Moose. If a 70-year-old grandmother with brittle bones had showed up at that pay phone in a white van this morning, I shudder to think what that scene would have looked like.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson