Posted on 10/18/2002 5:24:23 PM PDT by Lessismore
Experts in Japan and China disagree with Rumsfeld that Pyongyang has nuclear weapons, saying he offered no evidence
NORTH Korea's startling admission that it was secretly developing nuclear weapons has alarmed Asian countries, but its immediate neighbours do not think Pyongyang poses a real nuclear threat as yet.
Analysts in East Asia disagreed with US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's assertion that North Korea already possessed a small number of nuclear weapons, noting that he had offered no concrete evidence.
Advertisement
They noted that Mr Rumsfeld and several of his Cabinet colleagues, including Vice-President Dick Cheney, had all along favoured a more hardline approach in dealing with Pyongyang.
In Tokyo, experts pointed out that the recent trip to Pyongyang by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi pointed to the unlikelihood that North Korea possessed nuclear weapons.
'Japan would never tolerate North Korea possessing nuclear arms,' said a Foreign Ministry source, suggesting that the trip would not have been possible had Pyongyang been successful in making the weapons.
The premier reiterated in Parliament yesterday that normalisation talks with North Korea would proceed as planned on Oct 29.
Beijing-based Pyongyang watchers said that North Korea's nuclear technology was likely homegrown and based on dated scientific information from the former Soviet Union.
They also noted that East Asian countries such as China and Japan would not have passed on the latest scientific know-how or weaponry to aid Pyongyang's nuclear programme.
China especially has nothing to gain from sharing information or helping Pyongyang.
'What China needs is a stable environment to grow its economy. Why would it proliferate nuclear weapons and make the region more dangerous?' said a Beijing University analyst.
Analysts were wary of American-centred reports that suggested East Asia was facing a nuclear crisis.
East Asian countries may find themselves at odds with the United States on how to proceed over the issue.
The US has stopped dialogue and demanded that Pyongyang give up its nuclear programme before talks can resume.
Tokyo and Seoul, however, are expected to push for continued American involvement in talks with visiting senior US officials over the weekend.
Some analysts have compared the nuclear bombshell to North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's surprise admission that Pyongyang had indeed abducted 13 Japanese nationals in the 70s and 80s to teach its spies Japanese.
It should be read as further sign of its opening up to the world. 'It could be the first real step towards rapprochement with the US,' said North Korea watcher Shunji Hiraiwa, noting the US would have been unable to do much in the face of a vehement denial.
Pyongyang's recent moves towards capitalism, including the raising of wages and price of essentials and transport, can only be supported by international aid and assistance.
'It makes no sense for the North to alienate the Americans,' he added.
Until Mr Kim's admission and apology last month opened the door to the resumption of talks with Japan, Pyongyang had for years denied Japan's charges of kidnapping, and even stormed out of previous normalisation talks when the issue cropped up.
It had similarly denied for years that it was nursing a secret nuclear weapons programme in violation of several agreements, including a 1994 accord with the US and the international non-proliferation treaty.
North Korea expert Professor Hajime Izumi said: 'By coming out with both the kidnappings and the nuclear weapons development programme, Pyongyang is trying to show that it has changed.'
If Tokyo and Seoul aren't concerned, they ought to be. They shouldn't become the new Europe, expecting the US to eternally do their heavy lifting.
So when will they be a threat?
Good God, it's like a scene in Guide For the Married Man in which the wife catches the husband with a naked woman and he just denies it until the woman gets dressed and leaves. And as for the brilliant conclusion that N.K. is trying to show it has changed, they announced this along with a statement that their promise to halt their nuclear program is dead!
Neither country would take the US' word for it without independently verification by their own intelligence agencies. In fact, they probably have better intelligence on the ground that we do.
So far as I have heard, the North Korean's have admitted to a uranium enrichment program. This does not mean that they have a bomb. However, even highly enriched U235 is not a particularly good bomb making material. Pu239 is much preferred. Also, uranium which has been only moderately enriched cannot be used to make a bomb, but it is useful in making nuclear reactors -- which North Korea needs in order to be self-sufficient in power generation.
Though I would not want to see that happen, I was wondering the same thing. Is it going to take a mushroom cloud to convince them? It would seem to me that the Japanese, of all people, would be a little bit fearful of mushroom clouds. Whether the North Koreans would actually do that, is another issue, but I would not trust them with a fire cracker, let alone nucs.
I am sure that is exactly what would happen.
Regards.
Uranium has become an alternative to Plutonium because the extensive Plutonium production facility cannot be used due to '94 treaty. N. Korea has unranium mines. There are 4 million metric tons of uranium ore which can be readily mined. The uranium enrichment facility is smaller than plutonium production one, and easier to hide.
The local Korean paper reports that America suspects that the most likely candidate is the Pyongsung research complex outside Pyongyang, which is officially for IT research. It could have a small lab which does uranium enrichment, according to U.S. intelligence.
It only works as long as the population wants it that way. Germany's military was limited by the Treaty of Versaille after World War I, and the area between the Rhine and the French border was troop-free. It was unpopular, and Hitler ditched it, building up to WW II.
If the Japanese sentiment demanded self-defence, a "piece of paper" wouldn't stop anything. Now, I'm not saying a nuclear Japan is necessarily a good thing--but I'm also getting tired of our kids being everyone else's shield in the interests of world peace.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.