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To: John H K
My problem with MOST of the Muslim terrorism theorists is that they're "concluding" it's a Muslim terrorist, or that it "has to be" Al Quaeda.

Well fair enough, so here's my logic in a nutshell: IF it is a lone shooter, the odds are it is a domestic nutcase, just because there is a larger supply of domestic nutcases. But IF there is more than one person involved, it is more likely to be a terrorist cell, for two reasons: 1) The odds it is nutcases goes down geometrically for every incremental nutcase involved, i.e. if the odds for a certain demographic are one in 100,000, the odds two of them got together are one in 10,000,000,000 - one in ten billion, which makes it unlikely such a team of nutjobs even exists in the human population. 2) AQ trains for such actions - as in the Oregon cell - in small groups, and they also train multiple cells (as for 9/11) for the same op.

Even if you quibble with my "one in 100,000" number, it doesn't matter. Any fairly long odds - even one in 1000, which would make such killings a common event - get into the millions and then billions against once you add one or two co-conspirators. If it is a team effort, I'd give odds it is terrorists.

687 posted on 10/15/2002 10:33:02 AM PDT by eno_
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To: eno_
That's how I look at it eno. The number of Sick People in the country that have the capability of murdering people in cold blood is quite low to begin with in a relative sense. Add another accomplice and the odds go geometric to an extremely remote possibility. So, if there are 2 or more Killers involved here I'd highly suspect that we are dealing with an AQ type terrorist ring.
717 posted on 10/15/2002 10:47:09 AM PDT by WRhine
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