[Cyber Liberty]

I'm suspicious of a poll that moves that rapidly in one month. It happens, but there has to be something like a major scandal associated with it (like in NJ).

[hobbes1]

Actually, it is more than likely the increased visiblity/scrutiny that comes with the election less than a month away.Plus this poll was taken during the week, which favors the right.

My best guess is the momentum will start shifting towards the republicans in most of the close races, over the next couple of weeks. The democrats are being viciously outfoxed.

First Bush faked towards just going after Iraq, causing the Congressional dems to scream CONSULTATION. So he did, and set a pre election day deadline.He got what he wanted, and an extra 3 weeks of good press. Next up Homeland Sec. and the Economy.

Dems will not be able to keep union protections and will have to capitulate. Then on to....Bread and Butter/Pocketbook issues (the Dems THINK they want to focus here). Once that starts, Look for the fact that they are bereft of Solutions and long on Demagoguery to be a major factor in their down fall.

Plus the republicans have something like a 3 or 4 to 1 HArd money advantage, and Bush is raising Dollars by the Bushelful everywhere he goes.

The last still as yet unaccounted for factor in the Senate races, is the Re-Crystalization of Broken Glass Republicans in NJ. A minor sway in the Independants, coupled with increased (R) turnout, hopefully will spell LIGHTS OUT for Lousenberg, and Dasshole will be moving Back into the MINORITY leaders orifice where he belongs.

NEXT UP: Following up on Lotts Spinal implant surgery.

[Dave S]

I'm suspicious of a poll that moves that rapidly in one month. It happens, but there has to be something like a major scandal associated with it (like in NJ).

Why do you say that? While its likely that Talent has gained over the month, he could have stayed unchanged at 44% and gotten the results reported in the two waves of interviews. The 40% last month plus the 4.5 point error range means the true percent could be between 36% and 44%. This month the result is 47%. With the 3.5 point error range that means he could really be anywhere between 50% abd 44%.

For a more practical explaination, last month the widow was outspending Talent on advertising because of huge campaign by AFL-CIO. This month Talent is outspending the widow by what appears to be two to one, at least here in West St. Louis County.

Also it's possible that the news about the Lautenburg replacement on the NJ ballot may have reminded some voters of the "unusual" way in which the widow became senator in the first place.

[Dog Gone]

I'm suspicious of a poll that moves that rapidly in one month.

Zogby has a habit of making polls move rapidly just before an election. He tends to get things pretty close at the end.

Keep an eye open for his final poll on this race.

[MHT]

These stats are more compatible with valid internal polling from months ago than the swings Zogby has been showing in the past four months.