[mattdono]

I see that the Zogby poll doesn't take into account that "demoA-Holes-will-cheat-lie-and-steal-for-any-Carnahan-vote" factor, so you have to add at least 5% for that.

[Shake Head] SCUMBAGS...

Considering that, it looks like a deadheat.

[Carry_Okie]

I see that the Zogby poll doesn't take into account that "demoA-Holes-will-cheat-lie-and-steal-for-any-Carnahan-vote" factor,

Actually, I think they do, as was demonstrated in the 2000 election. It's their special ingredient in that "secret sauce."

[The Person]

Yeah, unless the polls show Talent with more than a 5% lead on election day, I'll consider it a toss-up, since the fraud factor needs to be added in. In 2000, Gore won almost every state where he was behind by less than 3.5% in the last pre-vote polls.

I think the Dems have a much better chance of taking the House than Repubs have of taking the Senate.

[agrandis]

Also, rememebr, even if the GOp retakes the Senate, the Democrats in Republican clothing will vote with the Dems, so the GOP needs to take back the Senate by a wide margin.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

I see that the Zogby poll doesn't take into account that "demoA-Holes-will-cheat-lie-and-steal-for-any-Carnahan-vote" factor, so you have to add at least 5% for that.

Presumably, the dead vote is included in this category?

[TheErnFormerlyKnownAsBig]

Cheating and illegally open late polls can only make up about 2% in a race. Get out the vote (like in N.J. the last time Whitman ran and barely won when she was up by 6-8% in the polls) in the minority communities can make a 3-5% difference in a low turnout race in a state that has a lot of urban areas.

Does Missouri fit that profile? I don't know but my best guess is Talent better be up by 5% in the polls on election night if the turnout is moderate to low and the RATS are up to their old shenanigans.

[Spook86]

As a Missouri native, I can only agree with your assessment. Rest assured, the Democratic machines in St. Louis and Kansas City will ensure that every tombstone pulls the lever for Carnahan at least twice on election day and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Dems approach a "friendly" judge about keeping the polls open late.

Talent is running a strong race. But, as we've seen in NJ, the Dems will pull out all the stops to secure a victory and hang onto the Senate. I'll predict that Talent will win by two points--or less--if he's able to beat Carnaan on election day....