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Then there's the argument that if we had simply stayed out, Stalin and Hitler would have ground each other up.

Boy, your arguments are all over the map, irrelevant and they can't stick anywhere.

Without help, the Soviet Union would have been crushed in the second summer, if not during the first winter. Stalin's lead general - was it Yurishenko? I don't recall - said that without Spam, the Russian army would have starved that first winter.

American and British aircraft, trucks, tanks, food, oil, etc., etc., allowed the Russians to keep fighting until they could rebuild their industry. Weather and Hitler defeated the Germans in Russia, not the Russians.

1) Without Hitler's interference, the German army would have taken Moscow that first early winter. Hitler did not allow them to prepare for a winter campaign.
2) If Hitler had not insisted that Stalingrad be taken, the German High Command would have bypassed the city and taken Moscow and the new industrial centers being built. At the time the Germans entered Stalingrad, there were no Russian armies that could have stopped them from moving east and north.