Posted on 10/09/2002 5:23:49 PM PDT by Pokey78
A senior Kremlin official indicated yesterday that Russia would demand a high price for its support in the campaign against Iraq but that it would not ultimately stand in America's way.
With Tony Blair due in Moscow this afternoon, the Kremlin's senior spokesman said Russia would adopt a "pragmatic" position over Iraq, shorthand for a demand that it must receive substantial financial compensation.
Briefing western journalists, Sergei Yastrzhembsky, President Vladimir Putin's official spokesman, said: "The devil will be in the details of these [United Nations] resolutions but our position is essentially pragmatic. What is interesting for us is our economic and financial interests."
France also moved closer to accepting the inevitability of war in Iraq yesterday, while continuing to criticise America for its hawkish stance.
Following a parliamentary debate on Iraq on Tuesday evening, the French foreign minister, Dominique de Villepin, said France would not use its Security Council veto because that would deprive it of its influence.
While France still appeared wedded to its insistence that there must be two UN resolutions on Iraq, it was not clear whether Russia would maintain a similar stance.
Under the French proposal, the first resolution would instruct Saddam Hussein to admit inspectors to destroy his weapons of mass destruction and the second would authorise force if he obstructed their work. Britain and America would prefer a single tough resolution.
In a BBC interview last night, the Prime Minister played down suggestions that Mr Putin would be demanding huge financial guarantees in return for offering his support in a war against Iraq.
"Obviously, there are interests that Russia has in this issue but I don't think it's a question of price tags," Mr Blair said.
"It's a question of making sure that we do this in such a way that the world is made a safer place, that Iraq can develop and that the interests of everybody, including Russia, are taken account of." Nonetheless, Mr Yastrzhembsky said the Kremlin's policy on Iraq was driven by economic concerns.
At the heart of Russia's fears are the effects that a war in Iraq might have on the price of oil. Moscow, which relies on oil for half its external income, fears that if Saddam is deposed, America may attempt to flood the market with cheap Iraqi oil to bolster its own economy.
Economists say that for Russia, still battling with the huge costs of economic restructuring, a steep fall in the oil price could provoke financial disaster.
Mr Yastrzhembsky said: "We are heavily dependent on world oil prices and it is difficult to anticipate the consequence of an attack on Iraq."
The price of oil, currently at $29 a barrel, is widely expected to fall if Washington launches a successful war on Iraq. Mr Yastrzhembsky said Russia could cope with a fall in price to $18 a barrel but not any lower.
Moscow said it will also be looking for guarantees that Russian companies would be able to keep valuable oilfields in western Iraq if Saddam is deposed.
Meanwhile the UN demanded freedom of action when its inspectors return to Iraq.
According to a document seen by Reuters news agency, Iraq has agreed that the inspectors would be "granted immediate, unconditional and unrestricted access to sites," including government ministries, but it dodged the issue of Saddam's eight palace compounds, which were subject to special procedures in 1998.
1. Russia: "What is interesting for us [Russia] is our economic and financial interests." Like : (i) getting paid on old debts by retention of key Iraqi oil field concessions, and we [Russian] know the U.S. is going to bust OPEC and lower the price of oil but no lower than $18. "At the heart of Russia's fears are the effects that a war in Iraq might have on the price of oil. Moscow, which relies on oil for half its external income, fears that if Saddam is deposed, America may attempt to flood the market with cheap Iraqi oil to bolster its own economy. ...Economists say that for Russia, still battling with the huge costs of economic restructuring, a steep fall in the oil price could provoke financial disaster. ...Russia could cope with a fall in price to $18 a barrel but not any lower."
2. France. "France would not use its Security Council veto because that would deprive it of its influence." France will abstain. Wasn't it the Prince that wrote that before battle the Gauls appear bigger than life but afterwards less than women?
3. U.S. position. Bush will say something like, we were planning to go without you but hey maybe a deal can be reached before the train leaves the station. Pooti Poot did you know it costs about $18 to keep U.S. oil fields going too. What a coincidence and by the way we can pump enough from those Iraqi fields to pay that old debt at some reasonable discount and on top of it, we'll guarantee you a market to the U.S. and Asian markets in future years so long as the territorial integrity of Georgia is protected and sufficient pipelines from the Caspian region can be developed. As for France, well we won't embarrass you and I'm sure there are some interesting trade concessions that can be granted in the Middle East or elsewhere to keep your system of economic and political graft going for another decade.
I have a question, and don't take offence, but I always thought that people who called Putin "Pooti Poot" were little girls. Ranger doesn't sound like a screen nic that a little girl would choose however? How old are you?
Gee -- should we also ask Outer Mongolia and Upper Volta if a war with Iraq might affect them as well?
And as far as the Ruskies are concerned, some of us just might consider the Russians' tab being picked up over 55 years ago when the U.S. derailed Patton from taking the 6th Army straight to Moscow via Berlin.
Gosh -- especially now that it's we who've got our New NATO style Clean Hands, our PATRIOT Act, our TIPS network, the no-knock raids, the right to summary execution of anyone George "the difference between Justice and Vengeance is Attitude" Bush thinks is a terrorist, these former Soviets are more like us that we are.
Go figure.
And they care about the children and homeless too ... why, look at the hero of Transportation and Homelessness they're returning to his rightful place outside the building in which he and his created so many homeless children for whom he could care ...
The Mayor of Moscow is leading a campaign to resurrect a monument to the founder of the feared Soviet Secret Police: Felix Dzherzhinsky. The City Planning Committee meets tomorrow to discuss the proposal. As NPR's Lawrence Sheets reports from Moscow, Russian liberals are up in arms over the plans to rehabilitate a man they see as a ruthless murderer.
It was the middle of the night on August 22nd of 1991 and the shortlived coup attempt against Mikhail Gorbachev had just collapsed. Hundreds of anti-communist protestors cheered as cranes ripped the imposing 15-ton bronze monument to Felix Dzherzkinsky from its pedestal in front of KGB headquarters. It's a moment some saw as marking a symbolic end to the Soviet Era.
One man watching the spectacle that night was "Valery Valitchko," a career KGB officer. Seeing his ideological godfather, Dzherzhinsky dangling from a giant noose made Valitchko's blood boil:
"We saw the column of marchers coming toward the building," Valitchko said. "Like other KGB officers, I was startled. My first impulse was to take up arms and fight." Now, KGB veterans like Valitchko may get symbolic retribution. Moscow's populist Mayor, Yuri Luzhkov, is championing Felix Dzherzhinsky's rehabilitation. He wants the statue put back in front of the former KGB building, now home to Russia's FSB Security Services.
"The wave of protest of those times was aimed against the existing political order," Luzhkov says, "it wasn't aimed against Dzherzhinsky's monument."
Luzhkov argues Dzherzhinsky did good deeds, like ending homeless among Russian children after the October Revolution. He notes he helped build Russia's gigantic network of state railroads. But that logic shocks liberal Russian politicians like Boris Nemtsov.
"Everyone knows Dzherzhinsky was an executioner," Nemtsov says. "Upon his orders, millions of our compatriots were destroyed: women, children, priests and intellectuals."
Nemtsov points out that Dzherzhinsky personally sanctioned unleashing terror against his anti-communists opponents. He also set up the first labor camps which later became part of the Gulag Archipelago. Nemtsov calls the idea to restore Dzherzhinsky's statue "an affront to the millions of victims of Stalinist terror." But the idea is popular, even in relatively liberal Moscow, a majority of Russians say they want Dzherzhinsky back in front of the old KGB building. 45-year old Vladimir is strolling about the Moscow sculpture garden where Dzherzhinsky currently stands. "Dzherzhinsky, along with Lenin and his team, helped to build a powerful state for over 70 years. They made it one of the great countries of the world," says Vladimir, "History is history and there's no way of getting away from it. Only time can be the judge," he says.
Pollster "Masha Volkenstein" says a yearning for the order of Soviet times helps explain the popularity of the campaign to rehabilitate Dzherzhinsky as does a desire by Russians to see their history in a more positive light. "Also important is that a big part of the population don't know Dzherzhinsky. I mean, young people – they don't just, they don't have any idea who he was and what it is about."
President Vladimir Putin hasn't commented personally on the idea of rehabilitating Dzherzhinsky, although his administration expressed some muted concerns. But Putin opponents describe the idea by Mayor Luzhkov to put Dzherzhinsky's statue back in front of the FSB building as "the ultimate birthday gift" to Putin, himself a former KGB spy.
The Kremlin leader turned 50 years old today.
Lawrence Sheets, NPR News, Moscow.
If "pragmatism" hadn't existed -- and it didn't -- they'd have had to have invented it -- and they did -- so that the West could preen over it's ability to choose always the lesser evil and swell with hubris at it's Good Intentions and Best-Laid Plans even as it unleashed an evil at every turn.
Don't stop thinking about tomorrow. It'll soon be here.
And it will be hell on earth for Everyone.
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