We both agree that reason the key here. This is the definition of reason from the dictionary:
Reason: Good judgment; sound sense.
If you were standing outside during bad weather, and numerous leaders in the field of weather said that their was a significant risk of a tornado heading straight for your position, what would be the reasonable respone? Would it be to sit there and proclaim that you are not going to give in to "fear mongering" and that you abhor "chicken little" types?
The resonable response would be to run like hell.
The book by Preston is a non-fiction book that is his telling of stories that people in the field have had. All of the people in the book are real. Preston, himself, is really understated on all of it. You can get a feel for him via this link: Preston thread on FR
The quote I took from the book before are two people Peter Jahrling (of USAMRIID) and Ricard Moyer (a poxvirus expert). Jahrling's team identified (properly) the antrhax attack as being weapon's grade within hours of the letter being opened. It took the FBI 9 days to figure out he was right.
Some of the people who are gravely concerned about a smallpox attack:
Peter Jahrling, USAMRIID
D.A. Henderson, Headed up WHO's smallpox eradication. Director of Office of Public Health Emergency Preparedness & Response
Ken Alibek, former head of Soviet bio-weapons program, Bio-prepart.
In addition to governement people in the know warning us, the facts sanity check. I sanity checked his assertion by pulling up the abstract for the modifed pox virus that defeats vaccination.
If you want to show that you are unshakable in the face of threat, that's ok. But I don't, personally, believe that it is resonable to ignore knowledable people, who are current directing government policy, when they say there is a significant threat.
I'm sorry, but one really doesn’t have to read beyond that sentence to see where you're going. I don’t deny that there's a risk of heavy casualties. But if there were a few charlatans out peddling end of the world tornado scenarios for $19.95 plus shipping and handling while most of the meteorological establishment feels somewhat prepared, you'd say it's snake oil.
Personally, I think you have a tenuous grasp on reasoning at best or your wouldn't have led with that analogy. The danger's there, but there's another side that you won't acknowledge. "There's none so blind as those that will not see". You'd be doing yourself a favor to list the contra indicators. I bet you'd be challenged to list 5 reasons that everything Preston's supplementing his living off of will fail to materialize. I could list 10. Is it because I'm suborn, brilliant, or just an ordinary reasonable guy? You decide for yourself. Good luck.