This Killer Doesn't Fit the Expected Profile

NY Times ^ | 10-08-02 | FOX BUTTERFIELD

[Pharmboy]

Experts in mass murder and the profiling of killers say the sniper who has killed six people in the Washington metropolitan area does not fit the usual categories, and that may make the case much harder to solve.

Most mass murderers, for example kill to settle a grudge or avenge a perceived wrong, targeting victims who are relatives, colleagues or members of an ethnic group they hate, the experts said.

The majority of gunmen committing multiple murders in recent years also used semiautomatic weapons, fired several times, and ended up either killing themselves or remaining at the scene to be captured.

But the sniper in the Washington area has picked his victims seemingly at random, firing a single round from a considerable distance and escaping while leaving behind no obvious clues. He has used a hunting or military-style rifle, leaving no shell casings for the police to investigate as evidence until one was found today.

The profilers know that this killer is cool and cautious. They do not know much more than that.

"Since there is no evidence of a motive, or evidence that this person is trying to get even with society, what is left is killing for sport," said James Alan Fox, the Lipman family professor of criminal justice at Northeastern University, who has written several books on mass murderers.

The sniper's use of a single shot also suggests less anger than mass killers normally have, Professor Fox said. "If he was expressing his anger or frustration, he would continue to fire, creating a blood bath. But this guy is coolly and calmly finding victims, taking a very accurate shot, and then escaping."

"I think he is hunting or target shooting with humans," Professor Fox said.

Raymond Pierce, a retired New York City police detective and criminal profiler, said he could think of only one similar case. In 1994, a lone gunman set up a hunting rifle equipped with a sniper scope on a tripod outside a diner, a gas station and a Burger King restaurant in small towns in Suffolk County, N.Y., firing a single bullet each time at individuals inside.

One man was killed, a woman was badly injured and a third intended target escaped harm when bulletproof glass deflected the bullet.

The shooter turned out to be a gun enthusiast, who targeted his victims "for the thrill of it," said Lieutenant Jack Fitzpatrick of the Suffolk County police homicide department. The gunman, Peter Sylvester, was eventually tracked down, convicted and is now serving a life prison sentence, Lieutenant Fitzpatrick said.

Mr. Sylvester also carried out his shootings by firing only one round each time, Lieutenant Fitzpatrick said. He carefully placed a blanket beneath his rifle, and left no shell casings at the scene.

As with the Washington-area shootings of the past week, the Suffolk County shootings in 1994 created great public unease. More than 100 Suffolk County police and detectives were assigned to hunt for the sniper. The case was solved when the police received information that a Remington .35 caliber rifle had been stolen from a gun store in a burglary and that the weapon was sold to Mr. Sylvester.

A bullet recovered from the body of a man killed in the diner matched the markings of a bullet fired from the Remington, Lieutenant Fitzpatrick said.

Professor Fox said that it was unusual that the shootings were continuing. Mass killers usually end up dead or captured at the scene of their shooting, he said, or if they are not seriously emotionally disturbed and able to plan carefully, will stop their killings when the number of police in the area increases.

"But this guy may be getting an added thrill out of continuing to outwit the police even while they are looking for him," Professor Fox said, noting that there was another victim today, a 13-year-old boy shot outside a middle school in Bowie, Md.

A number of studies of mass killers have found that they usually give warning signs to friends, relatives or co-workers, talking about their grievances and threatening to take some violent act of vengeance. These studies have shown that mass killers, contrary to popular belief, do not just snap. Unfortunately, these warning signs are usually ignored until too late.

One of the most widely publicized rampage killing involved Colin Ferguson, a black man frustrated by his failed life who blamed white racism for his troubles. In December 1993, he killed 6 people and wounded 19 on the Long Island Rail Road before being subdued by other passengers.

The bloodiest rampage killing took place at a Luby's Cafeteria in Killeen, Tex., in October 1991. George Hennard, a delusional man who had told an F.B.I. agent that a secret national conspiracy of white women was plotting against him, crashed his pickup truck into the restaurant and opened fire. He killed 22 people and wounded 23 more before killing himself.

The difficulty of tracking the Washington sniper reminded Joseph Borrelli, a retired New York City chief of detectives, of a year-long wave of killings by David Berkowitz, known as Son of Sam, who shot and killed six people and wounded seven others in 1977 as they sat in their cars.

"The complete absence of a motive is very similar to Berkowitz," Mr. Borrelli said.

"We never did establish a motive," Mr. Borrelli said. "When we caught him, he claimed it was the devil talking to him through the dog; that was his story."

Mr. Pierce, the retired profiler, said the Washington sniper seemed different from the angry, emotionally unstable type of killer. "He is a very calculating person, preoccupied with escape," Mr. Pierce said. "He is not out of touch with reality."

"He may have an antisocial personality disorder, and thrive on power and control," Mr. Pierce said. "But he is not psychotic."

[NCLou]

Just some thought on how your questions might apply to non-terrorist leads.

The school - Taunt the police, more fear in the public both appeal to a lot of serial killer, the ego driven ones. Also, a serial killer usually needs to "up the ante" to keep feeling the same rush. That can be: more frequent attacks, more heinous/shocking attacts, more high risk attacks. The choice of a child/school target fits this. In this case I would expect the next attacks to continue to be more provocative - kids, outside a church, traffic cop. Or he will get the thrill by communicating with someone. I just have a feeling that if this is a serial killer, we are going to start seing letters.

No shots on weekend- A serial killer may have a family to be with on the weekend, may have a job that takes him out of town on the weekend. However, that indicates a level of social contact that makes you wonder what people that know him thought he was doing on those weekdays. If he was supposed to be at work, would he be noticed to be gone? He could live outside of the area, and has a low level blue collar job or business that gives him a reason to go into DC. He could be telling his wife he has to be in the DC area during the week for some painting or contracting job he is working on.
If this is the case, eventually friends or family will start to put two and two together.

One or two shooters – Although most serial killers do work alone, I think there are enough example of partners that this cannot be used to discount the possibility of serial killers.

Single shot- Although your analysis may be right, let me suggest one other possibility. The shooter may still be “learning the ropes”. Right now they may not feel confident in being able to get the second shot off and still get away. With success, eventually he may be confident enough in his ability to escape that he will try a second shot. Or maybe his death rate is good enough for him.

Head shot versus body- this is the most intriguing. I can’t think of a good reason to switch for a serial killer, with one possible exception. Is it possible that he has shot at twice as many people as he has hit, and no one knows it? Could he have decided that body shots were easier, that a lower kill rate was a good trade off for a higher hit rate. I don’t know enough about shooting to say, but it seems plausible, especially if one of his “misses” was part of a close call as far as getting caught.

[Freedom2specul8]

Thanx Gummy....am reading now

[Marysecretary]

I agree. I think he's a terrorist as well. All the more reason he needs to be caught and caught soon! It's the fact that he's killing people at random, all ages, all colors, etc. that convinces me that this is not your normal serial killer. Hope that angle is being pursued. M

[5by5]

We could go on all day about whether he's a terroist or not and not conclude anything until he's caught.

But if he's a "garden variety madman" then I would expect him to continue operating in the same area because that's where he lives and it's convenient for him.

But if he's a terrorist, he'll move on to another area to spread the fear around in an attempt to make all Americans feel like they're under attack. This is because a terrorist can take advantage of a support network that the madman is unlikely to have. If it's terrorist activity, there may also be multiple snipers. That would make it conclusive...

[5by5]

RE: (4) We might get lucky - someone, sometime, will have a video camera and will capture this turkey and/or the vehicle.

Luck happens to the well-prepared.

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

We can help catch this guy. He only fires one shot. So if you happen to hear a shot and you're still standing, someone else was fired upon and you're likely to be safe. Observe the scene around you. Try to absorb everything you can, particularily vehicles leaving the scene. If you have a video camera, carry it with you and video the scene.

There's far more people than snipers. So far that's been the sniper's advantage. But we can turn it into a liability.

When a shot is fired, and someone is hurt or killed, everyone's first instinct is to focus on the victim. The sniper knows that and uses the confusion to flee. If you turn your attention to the scene, we'll get info on the sniper and catch him. Potentially, many more lives will be saved that way.

If you find yourself in the vicinity of a shot: keep your head and use it.

I'm dropping this on every thread about the sniper with the hope that someone will be able to act on it and stop him.

[Freedom2specul8]

From Article:
"Most mass murderers, for example kill to settle a grudge or avenge a perceived wrong, targeting victims who are relatives, colleagues or members of an ethnic group they hate, the experts said. "
This is why the guy said yesterday that maybe the sniper had a gripe with michael's craft store. He said it could be a "disgrumbled employee" He wasn't thinking outside the box.

"The profilers know that this killer is cool and cautious. "
That's the impression I got..this still doesn't rule out foreign terrorist.

""I think he is hunting or target shooting with humans," Professor Fox said. "
While I agree with his comments that it doesn't look like he's a crazed person trying to get 'even'..I don't agree with his idea that humans are being used for target practice. IMHO...If that were the case, it wouldn't be "out" in the open like that. The sniper would be sneakier. This guy wants to be seen, he wants to be known and he wants to read about it on the news for a reason. The reason for that is what has the profilers confused...

[5by5]

I'd rather have Gunny Hathcock. RIP, alas.

[Becki]

Very interesting! Or have any of the supects we detained previously been let loose?

Becki

[Freedom2specul8]

"I believe there are at least two people involved in the killings - a shooter and a driver. Early news reports had police on the look out for two men. It makes a big difference if there are one or two. Serial killers almost always work alone. For me, multiple perps leans toward terrorism rather than thrill kills but could be either"

This is the strangest part! I don't understand why the criminal justice professors did not address that issue in the article. That is another reason why I disagree with the professor...I don't think they were just "target practicing"..

[Freedom2specul8]

also see my #127

[Chapita]

***********"I wonder why the cops didn't visit Mr Sylvester and repo the gun as evidence in the burglary?"***************************

I assume the cops didn't connect the rifle to the burglary until after the murder, then connected the burglary to the burglar, who told how he disposed of the rifle!

[Freedom2specul8]

What would be frustrating in being in such a scenario would be panic, fear, adrenalin (sp) and knowing which direction to look..

[xsrdx]

Head shot versus body- this is the most intriguing. I can’t think of a good reason to switch for a serial killer

His first day was planned, and executed carefully. He probably half expected to be caught.

Having been successful, he's being very cautious, increasing his standoff and thus his ability to remain undetected, while "planning as he goes". As a result, with the apparently self imposed single shot limit, he may not get the hits he was able to make earlier.

[BlueMondaySkipper]

If you wanted to hire a hit on someone, wouldn't this be an ideal way to hide the fact that you were having a specific person killed?

If you could establish a completely random pattern of killings, with your intended target mixed in, no one would be the wiser.

I don't think that this is the case here, but I don't have a lot of hope that the authorities are thinking outside of the box.

[auggy]

" Fits the profile of a trained Islamic terrorist - wonder why that was not mentioned? "

Don't you know that would be profiling? The P/C crowd would be furious, if they suggested that.

[JasonC]

Quite. The method is exactly what snipers are trained to do in war. They should be looking for trained military men, foreign more likely than domestic but either possible. Ask Bosnians how "atypical" this is - they lived with the same thing regularly for almost 10 years.

[longtermmemmory]

or there now may be copy cats...

Has anyone considered the fact that only one of the victims may be the intended target? The rest could be decoys.

We can have a never ending spiral of speculation until the acutal people/person is caught.

[Freedom2specul8]

"Has anyone considered the fact that only one of the victims may be the intended target? The rest could be decoys. "

Why no I haven't..GOOD THINKING! I'll be right back..there's a graphic that tells a little, not enough but a little about the victims. We could combine that with their names etc..

[VOA]

Fits the profile of a trained Islamic terrorist - wonder why that was not mentioned?

Same reason you don't (or rarely) hear that the rebel forces in the Ivory Coast
are Muslim insurgents pushing for a separate Muslim state.