Posted on 10/03/2002 3:46:32 PM PDT by LS
Larry Sabato, UVA political scientist who has a website devoted to election analysis, issued his most recent analysis.
1) The Senate (he says) is so close (AFTER New Jersey) that it could be a net +2 for GOP or net +2 for Dems. He still has Johnson slightly ahead of Thune (and surprisingly made no change, despite new polling data) and Carnahan ahead of Talent (but Talent closing fast). He has Cleleand still favored, but Chambliss (in a surprise) closing.
HE HAS THE TORICELLI/LOUSENBERG SCAM MAKING THAT STATE NOW "LEAN DEM" WHEN IT WAS LEANING GOP!
He has MN a tossup, and Colorado a tossup from "Leans Republican. Texas now "Leans Republican," as does NH (from "tossup" categories). He has AK leaning Dem now.
He apparently either has not seen the new Ganske/Harkin #s, or doesn't believe them, because that race is either a "tossup" or "leans Dem" SLIGHTLY.
On the House, the picture is quite bright: he has the GOP with 221 "safe, likely, or leaning" seats and only 7 tossups. This is down from 14. This means that as of right now, there is virtually no way the Dems can get the House, and they won't even gain seats. They will likely LOSE seats.
He has the governors races as anywhere from +1 GOP to +7 Dems. He thinks Simon is sunk.
Racicot has teenage kids, and he specifically said he wanted to get out of politics to spend more time with his family. He means it.
I look for him to leave as head of the RNC after the election.
Of course he did. But if he can't be accurate in such small matters, how can we trust him in major matters?
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