aircraft flight-level and dropsonde data indicate that Lili has weakened significantly since reaching its peak intensity yesterday evening. The hurricane hunters reported that the eyewall has collapsed into a few fragments...however WSR-88D from New Orleans and Lake Charles still show about 50 per cent of an eyewall...open to the south. Water vapor imagery suggests some elongation of the cloud pattern toward the north-northeast...indicating some possible shear. Radar images suggest some erosion of the precip pattern over the southwestern part of the circulation...indicating a possible intrusion of dry air. Also...there is a shallower layer of warm water available over the northwest Gulf as compared to farther south and east.
All of the above factors may have contributed to the decline. Despite the weakening...Lili is still a formidable hurricane and...since it is moving at a fairly fast forward speed...it can still spread strong winds as far as 150 mi inland.
The hurricane continues on a north-northwest...about 335 degree...heading. A northward turn is likely very soon but it now appears that the center will pass near the western portion of Vermilion Bay...which could still produce storm surge heights approaching 20 ft in that basin. Since the northward turn has been delayed somewhat...the short-term track forecast has been shifted just slightly westward. The center of the hurricane should make landfall on the Louisiana coast...about in the middle of the Hurricane Warning area...later this mo