Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Uniting Jordan and Iraq Might Be Prime Post-War Strategy
STRATFOR ^ | 26 September 2002 | Staff

Posted on 09/26/2002 3:29:42 PM PDT by Axion

Uniting Jordan and Iraq Might Be Prime Post-War Strategy
26 September 2002

Summary

An idea to unite Jordan and Iraq in a pro-U.S. Hashemite kingdom after a U.S. war is being floated in diplomatic and opposition circles. The plan could be Washington's best scenario for ensuring a stable post-war Iraq, but the United States likely is still weighing the proposal's possible geopolitical benefits versus its problems and feasibility.

Analysis

As a U.S. war against Iraq appears to be nearing, both Washington and Middle Eastern players also are working to make sure the expected American victory will result in strategic long-term gains. The idea of a central Iraq populated by Sunni Arabs joining with Jordan to form one Hashemite kingdom is being considered as one way to secure such gains.

Such a plan reportedly was discussed at an unusual meeting between Crown Prince Hassan of Jordan and pro-U.S. Iraqi Sunni opposition members in London last July. In September, Israeli paper Yedioth Ahronoth stated that the U.S. goal in Iraq was to create a united Hashemite kingdom embracing Jordan and Iraq's Sunni areas. Israeli terrorism expert Ehud Sprinzak recently echoed this sentiment on Russian television Sept. 24.

In a nutshell, the plan may involve uniting Jordan and Sunni-populated areas of Iraq under the rule of the current Jordanian regime. This could be done if Iraqi Sunni leaders appeal to King Abdullah with such a request, which has a weak but still legally valid justification, as Abdullah is the second cousin of the last Iraqi king, Faisal II, who was overthrown in 1958.

Who is floating the Iraq-Jordan idea, and who might benefit from its realization if it ever comes through? Although it might be wishful thinking by some Iraqi opposition members and Israeli media, it also could bring strategic benefits to the United States, Israel and Jordan.

Possible Gains for the United States

Sprinzak stated that the authors of a "Hashemite plan" are U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney and Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, both considered the most hawkish of Bush administration officials. Russian television program "Drugoye Vremya" also reports that it was U.S. officials who twice invited Hassan to meet the Iraqi opposition last summer.

The fact that the Western-based Iraqi opposition completely depends on Washington supports these allegations. And Washington showed much interest in the Jordan-Iraqi opposition talks in which the Hashemite idea was discussed.



The administration may be looking into the proposal because the current goal of replacing Saddam Hussein with a pro-U.S. Iraqi government still would not guarantee long-term U.S. control over the territory and its oil. First, it may become too hard for a new government in Baghdad to effectively control the whole country, even with U.S. troop support. An example is Afghanistan, in which the government of President Hamid Karzai still controls only the capital.

Second, the new government's attempts to establish control over all of Iraq may well lead to a civil war between Sunni, Shia and Kurdish ethnic groups, with U.S. troops caught in the middle. The fiercest fighting could be expected for control over the oil facilities.

But uniting Jordan and Iraq under a Hashemite government may give Washington several strategic advantages. First, the creation of a new pro-U.S. kingdom under the half-American Abdullah would shift the balance of forces in the region heavily in the U.S. favor. After eliminating Iraq as a sovereign state, there would be no fear that one day an anti-American government would come to power in Baghdad, as the capital would be in Amman. Current and potential U.S. geopolitical foes Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria would be left isolated from each other, with big chunks of land between them under control of the pro-U.S. forces.

Equally important, Washington would be able to justify its long-term and heavy military presence in the region as necessary for the defense of a young new state asking for U.S. protection -- and to secure the stability of oil markets and supplies. That in turn would help the United States gain direct control of Iraqi oil and replace Saudi oil in case of conflict with Riyadh.

As discussed in the Israeli media, the richest oil areas would go not to the Hashemite kingdom but to a widely autonomous Kurdish region that still could be formally a part of the Hashemite state. To make sure the Kurds will not upset U.S. ally Turkey by declaring an independent state, Washington would be able to deploy its forces into the Kurdish region, with new bases located just next to oil fields in areas such as Kirkuk.

Washington then would be able to offer the new Hashemite kingdom as a model for other Arab states, combining what the Arab masses see as the advantages of a traditional monarchy with the benefits of a U.S. alliance. The potential combination of educated Iraqis, U.S. aid and military assistance, and oil revenues might help the new state become a beacon for the Arab world to follow.

Were more states to adopt this example, the geopolitical influence of both Saudi Arabia and Egypt would decline, making it easier for Washington to deal with them. In case of a future conflict with Saudi Arabia or Iran, U.S. forces would be in the ideal position to strike not only from sea but also from land by using new bases in the Hashemite kingdom and the Kurdish region.

Possible Benefits for Israel and Jordan

The interest of Israeli experts and media to the Jordan-Iraq plan could be explained by the benefits Israel may get if the plan goes through. Iraq, arguably Israel's most determined foe, would be eliminated. Baghdad's end would deprive the Palestinians of much financial and other assistance, which could reduce the effectiveness of attacks against the Jewish state.

King Abdullah would vastly expand his role and prominence in the region with a joint Hashemite state, becoming the second-most important U.S. ally after Israel. In addition to his huge territorial gains, he also would get a chunk of Iraqi oil. And Palestinians, who currently make up half of Jordan's population, would become a minority in the new state, with much less potential to stir up trouble.

Major Consideration Still Ahead

The plan may not be free of negative consequences for Washington, however. Iraq's Shia majority -- whose anti-Hussein opposition seems currently divided between the United States and Iran -- probably would not agree to become a part of the new kingdom. Iran may interfere by urging Iraqi Shias to join with Tehran. Washington might counter by agreeing to attach the Shia Iraqi region to Kuwait, Israeli media speculates. Turkey, despite a U.S. military presence in Kurdish areas, still might have reservations about the plan. Finally, it is unclear how Sunni tribal and other leaders inside Iraq would react.

At this point, it does not seem that any decision has been made. Even if Washington did opt for a Jordan-Iraq plan, it would not make this goal public until Hussein was overthrown in order to secure Arab and Turkish support of the war, however half-hearted it would be.



TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-26 next last

1 posted on 09/26/2002 3:29:42 PM PDT by Axion
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Axion; Thinkin' Gal
Ping
2 posted on 09/26/2002 3:31:57 PM PDT by seeker41
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Axion; Thinkin' Gal
But...wouldn't this give his majesty a big peace keeping role for the world? (/sarcasm)
3 posted on 09/26/2002 3:34:50 PM PDT by DainBramage
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: seeker41
Ha, sorry I didn't see you had pinged her already.
4 posted on 09/26/2002 3:35:44 PM PDT by DainBramage
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: DainBramage
No problem...
5 posted on 09/26/2002 3:37:04 PM PDT by seeker41
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Axion
Not a good idea. You don't make dangerous countries even bigger. The Iraquis are certain to resent it, and in the end are likely to come out on top.
6 posted on 09/26/2002 3:42:22 PM PDT by Cicero
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Axion
Sure, give the desert to Jordan. No oil, no water. What a deal.
7 posted on 09/26/2002 3:43:12 PM PDT by RightWhale
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Axion
Fine, until the day Abdullah gets overthrown by his Palestinian majority. Then you're faced with Hamas having billions in oil reserves.
8 posted on 09/26/2002 3:46:12 PM PDT by Mr. Jeeves
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Axion
Won't happen. Jordan's playing for Washington this year. I just don't think he wants to play for Iraq.
9 posted on 09/26/2002 3:48:51 PM PDT by sharktrager
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Axion
Umm hmm. Stratfor.
10 posted on 09/26/2002 3:52:04 PM PDT by colorado tanker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Axion
Interesting proposition. But for sure, don't turn control of the partitioned Iraq over to Syria. As for the benefits that could accrue to the Jordanians, well, pipelines and ports are part of the equation in transportation of oil. Getting the oil out of the ground is only part of the job.
11 posted on 09/26/2002 3:56:31 PM PDT by alloysteel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Axion
Very, very doubtful.
12 posted on 09/26/2002 4:12:04 PM PDT by Man of the Right
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Thud
ping
13 posted on 09/26/2002 4:12:18 PM PDT by Dark Wing
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Axion; Dark Wing
Deal if Saudi Arabia is thrown in. The Hashemites have scores to settle with the Wahhabis.
14 posted on 09/26/2002 4:15:12 PM PDT by Thud
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Axion
I think this plan has possibilities. Jordan has an established, moderate, relatively forward looking government. And as long as the capital remains in Amman, it will strongly increase the incentive for the union to hold. Then, if Israel kicks out the Palestinians, they can mosey over to former Iraqi territory instead of overwhelming Jordan.
15 posted on 09/26/2002 4:18:24 PM PDT by Post Toasties
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Man of the Right
Doubtful indeed. It says: "Iran may interfere by urging Iraqi Shias to join with Tehran ... " No "may" about it, they will move in that direction. And the sight of a new Persian empire will rouse Arab illfeeling, although I don't know if they could DO anything about it.
16 posted on 09/26/2002 4:20:41 PM PDT by BlackVeil
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Cicero
Sounds JUST like something Wolfowitz and Cheney {Pearle & Libby} would come up with! These guys are playing with dynamite right on top of all that oil. Not to mention those millions of Muslims who hate us because of our Middle East Policy. It's scary that between their almighty egos, and Sharon/Likud's Plans to 'clean out' the 'Disputed Territories'. What better time than when our troops are in the middle of an Iraq War? Too many Israelis want ALL the land. The whole ME could blow up...and then nobody that's still alive will be happy.

I still have a hard time believing that our President has been captured by Sharon, Wolfowitz and Pearle. Not to mention Billy Kristol, et al.
Up until the Axis of evil, in the state of the union, I thought he had way more common sense than that...and then I still hoped and prayed. Until the West Point speech and the "Sharon is a man of Peace" right in the middle of bulldozing all those buildings.

I know that Isarel is in a terrible situation, but their elected gov'ts for the last 25 years have just made it worse.
I prefer Armegedan to come in our Lord's good time.
17 posted on 09/26/2002 4:30:35 PM PDT by meema
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: seeker41; Axion; DainBramage; 2sheep; Jeremiah Jr; babylonian; Dallas; crystalk; Simcha7
But uniting Jordan and Iraq under a Hashemite government may give Washington several strategic advantages. First, the creation of a new pro-U.S. kingdom under the half-American Abdullah...

Stratfor ought to pay more attention to detail. That's an unacceptable error. Well, at least people are trying to catch up. Maybe they've been digging in the FR archives, reading maps, or perhaps somebody stumbled upon...

Daniel 8:24 And his power shall be mighty, but not by his own power: and he shall destroy wonderfully, and shall prosper, and practise, and shall destroy the mighty and the holy people.

18 posted on 09/26/2002 4:38:05 PM PDT by Thinkin' Gal
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Cicero
Hold it!

Just who are "The Iraquis" ???

BJC didn't worry about "the yugoslavs" because they were really the Serbs, the Croats, and the Muslim boot lickers....

Why should anyone worry about "The Iraqis" when they are really the Kurds, the Shiites, and the Sunnis ??

19 posted on 09/26/2002 4:39:55 PM PDT by norton
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Axion
Would this not him "King Of Babylon"?
20 posted on 09/26/2002 4:42:12 PM PDT by DainBramage
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-26 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson