[NELSON111]

Well...strong storms do influence their environment. The best example you listed was Gilbert. It traveled at a 290 for most of its life due to the fact it built a ridge to it's north. However, storms will react to the mesoSCALE:-) environment when the trf is strong enough....especially if they are in weak steering flow. What will (or should) eventually turn Izzy to the north is a building ridge over Florida/Eastern GOM. this ridge looks like it will be oriented N/S so the steering will turn it north. The only thing left to determine is how far west does it drift before it gets pushed north by the ridge. Think the eastern GOM is off the hook now...and it could drift into Central Mexico before the ridge develops...or it could really slow down and wait 3 days or so and then move N into Central Louisianna.

[rwfromkansas]

It's already slowed down almost to a standstill the last I saw anyway.

[newsperson999]

Hi nelson,
What does the shear look like if it moves more north? Also I hope to God it doesn't moving into Texas and stall...that area is so soaked..Gilbert was down to 888 MB I Think...I remember it was supposed to turn more NW it never did...

[catfish1957]

I remember Gilbert (a September 1988 storm). I disagee, there were several troughs that entrenched into the northern gulf, that perplexed the experts. you are correct, Gilbert did not vary at all from its 290 path. What Gilbert showed was that some storms can get so massive that nothing can influence them. As was Andrew in 1992