Posted on 09/21/2002 3:05:23 PM PDT by newsperson999
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 21, 2002
Air Force recon data indicate major Hurricane Isidore has continued to rapidly strengthen and the central pressure has dropped 21 mb in the past 13 hours. A pressure of 946 mb generally corresponds to a maximum wind of about 117 kt. However...the eye is open to the west and there may be a lag in the wind field. Also...dropsonde data indicated about 105 kt surface winds...but winds just a few hundred above the surface have been as high as 130 kt. The three satellite agencies reported a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of t6.0...or 115 kt...while the 3-hour objective Dvorak T-number was also t6.0. Based on this information...the initial intensity was increased to 110 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 270/3. Recon fix positons since about 12z indicate Isidore has actually remained nearly stationary the past 6 hours...but right over some of the hottest water in the Atlantic Basin. Steering currents remain weak and are forecast by all of the global to remain weak or even get weaker. Isidore remains caught between a mid- to upper-level low east of Florida and one to the west over the Bay of Campeche. A weak and narrow low- to mid-level ridge extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from Florida westward to Texas. Given the relative weakness of this ridge...only 5880 meters at 500 mb...it would not take much of a shortwave trough to erode it and allow Isidore to drift slowly poleward. All of the NHC model guidance...except LBAR...keeps Isidore moving on a slow west or west-southwest track through the forecast period. The AVN and GFDL are very similar in hooking Isidore to the southwest around the western Yucatan Peninsula in 36 to 48 hours. This may be some artifact of terrain interaction which I have ignored for this advisory package since all of the global models show no significant ridging north of isiodre to push the system to southwest. The forecast calls for a slow...less than 6 kt...motion throughout the forecast period with a slight west-northwestward motion after 48 hours as a strong shortwave trough drops down the west side of the broad longwave trough...which is expected to erode the weak ridge over Texas and the northwest Gulf of Mexico and allow Isidore to gain some latitude. However... the slower Isidore moves during the next 36 to 48 hours will determine just how far north and the cyclone will move in the longer time periods beyond 72 hours. The good news is that it appears that Isidore is not going to go anywhere fast. The bad news is that it will remain over very hot water.
The central pressure has dropped 21 mb in the past 13 hours. A typical rapid intensification period. This trend would normally continue for another 12 hours or so...but radar and recon data indicate that the eye is open to the west and that an eyewall replacement cycle may be starting. As such...the official intensity forecast is held below the ships intensity model which brings Isidore to 135 kt in 36 hours and 140 kt in 60 hours. This type of intensification is certainly possible given the low shear...less than 6 kt...and high SSTs...about 30c/86f. However...predicting internal convective changes is nealry impossible so there could be flucuations by as much 10 kt either way from the offical intensity forecast. Some coastal upwelling may weaken the hurricane slightly as it moves west of 88w longitude...but then some restrengtnening is forecast after 48 hours when Isidore is forecast to move back over warmer water.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 21/2100z 21.9n 86.2w 110 kts
12hr VT 22/0600z 21.9n 87.0w 120 kts
24hr VT 22/1800z 21.9n 88.0w 125 kts
36hr VT 23/0600z 21.9n 89.2w 125 kts
48hr VT 23/1800z 22.0n 90.3w 125 kts
72hr VT 24/1800z 22.5n 92.5w 130 kts
I've visited there once, and looked at some maps and such while I was there. I'd be headed inland already.
Living in New England, I am especially cynical about weather forecasters. At least a dozen times a year, the local forecasters will breathlessly hype the next "northeaster" with 15-minute updates and whiz-bang graphics showing the utter havoc this coming winter storm may wreak upon the area, sending thousands of worried housewives into supermarkets to clear the shelves of milk and bread. Why milk and bread? I have no idea. But for some reason, people up here operate under the assumption that they must have mass quantities of milk and bread on hand during winter storms.
Most of the time, the much talked about snowstorm heads out to sea or takes an inland track, switching the snow over to rain. But even when we get hit hard, everybody is plowed and shovelled out again within 24 hours.
In my nearly 40 years of living in New England, I only remember ONE storm that truly shut the area down for more than a day. That was the blizzard of 1978. And ironically the forecasters totally missed that one until it was virtually on top of us.
The following is mentioned on both of those threads:
October 30, 1991: The Perfect Storm—As President George H. W. Bush is opening the Madrid (Spain) Conference to consider “land for peace” in Israel’s Middle East role, the “perfect storm” develops in the North Atlantic, creating the largest waves ever recorded in that region.For those who believe the heresy of "G~d loves me too much to let me suffer," please check out this link: 17The storm travels 1000 miles from “east to west” instead of the normal “west to east” pattern and crashes into the New England Coast. Thirty-five foot waves crash into the Kennebunkport home of President Bush.
Don McAlvany's Storm Warning Special Report -- links specific storms to incidents of major sin such as homosexual events or court decisions.
God's Perfect Storm Warning by John McTernan - 6/13/01
Da 12:10 Many shall be purified, and made white, and tried; but the wicked shall do wickedly: and none of the wicked shall understand; but the wise shall understand.
Pr 22:3 A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.
Pr 27:12 A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself; but the simple pass on, and are punished.
That's a sobering thought. I guess they're not so "slow-moving" once all hell breaks loose.
We were flooded up to out rainpipes along the roof by hurricane Agnus in New York. It wasn't the hurricane that got us, but a damn broke way up river from all the rain, and the river banks were breaking all over the state. Big mess, it was.
Even though the hurricane doesn't hit you, it's effects still could.
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