Mr. Castro showed himself to be emotionally unstable and reckless during the crisis, even calling on Khrushchev to launch a nuclear first strike on the United States rather than back down. Mr. Castro also opposed any arms inspections and wanted Moscow to keep a secret arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons in Cuba for use against an invasion. (At the height of the crisis, the Kremlin drafted an authorization for the Soviet commander in Cuba to use tactical nukes against U.S. forces).
In the wake of the crisis, Mr. Castro felt secure enough to launch a campaign of subversion throughout Latin America. He played a major role in the wars in Central America and sent Cuban troops to fight in support of Marxist regimes in Africa. Cuba remains a center for international terrorism and last December hosted a meeting of Latin American and Middle Eastern groups including the Columbian FARC and representatives from Iraq. Mr. Castro provided critical support (including personnel) to help Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez survive a coup attempt. And he is courting the Chinese. The cost of abandoning regime change in Cuba has been very high.
Saddam is in charge of his own WMD arsenal and Iraq's nuclear weapons program. He does not need subsidies from a patron, as he has plentiful oil reserves to finance his regime. He may already believe the chemical and bioweapons he possessed in 1991 deterred a U.S. march on Baghdad. Should he acquire nuclear weapons, his confidence as a survivor and leader of radical movements in the Middle East will skyrocket. A sizable proportion of the Iraqi people, as well as other Arabs, will hail Saddam as a leader who has what it takes to make the "imperialists" and their "puppets" back down.
Regime change in Iraq is a strategic necessity. It cannot be postponed, because time is not on America's side. Saddam must be removed before he has even a single nuclear bomb, and before he has the means to deliver his other WMDs on a large scale to distant targets. An invasion to liberate Iraq will be costly in money and effort, and possibly in lives. But the long-term costs of allowing Saddam to strengthen his position will be much higher on all counts. ***