[steveegg]

Projection time (using the Florida DOS numbers posted in post 579):

Current McBride lead: 34,525
Current Broward County stats (% reporting/lead by candidate): 97.3%/146,037/52,186 for Reno
Projected additional gain in Broward County for Reno: 1,448
Current Collier County stats: 91.7%/1,206 for McBride
Projected additional gain in Collier County for McBride: 109
(Desoto is too fouled up to calculate)
Current Duval County stats: 97.9%/1,146 for Reno
Projected additional gain in Duval County for Reno: 25
Current Miami-Dade County stats: 82.7%/62,726 for Reno
Projected additional gain in Miami-Dade County for Reno: 13,122
Current Palm Beach County stats: 83.9%/27,376 for Reno
Projected additional gain in Palm Beach County for Reno: 5,253
Current Sarasota County stats: 99.4%/1,509 for McBride
Projected additional gain in Sarasota County for McBride: 9
Current St. Lucie County stats: 85.3%/1,560 for Reno
Projected additional gain in St. Lucie County for Reno: 269
Current Sumter County stats: 97.4%/1,720 for McBride
(Union County has not reported any returns) Projected additional gain in Sumter County for McBride: 46
Total projected gain for McBride: 164
Total projected gain for Reno: 21,238
Net projected gain for Reno: 21,074
Theoretical margin of victory for McBride: 13,451 (roughly 0.9 percentage points)

[js1138]

You've got a lot of details in your projections, but the current lead is 24,000, not 31,000. Burno is picking up 67% of South Florida with 108,000 uncounted ballots. My math says it's a toss-up. At any rate, I expect a run-off, since neither cndidate is approaching 50% and the results will be disputed.

[Charlotte Corday]

There are precincts in Dade that could go 85% for Reno. Don't forget that most of the Cubans who hate her are registered Republican.