It boils down to economic factors for the EU, China, and the Russian Mafia.
Pretty good crystal ball!
I'be been thinking about digging up my op-ed on 'pre-emptive deterrence ... Iraq, as proven by Putin's comments yesterday, was a pre-emptive strike we had to take before Saddam became immpossible to take down. The damn frogs and schnitzels nearly made him impossible to reach as it was!