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To: VaBthang4
I don't disagree that rolling into Jordan would expose Saddam's armor to US air power. I didnt say he would be able to do it - just that he might try it anyway. He already moved forces to the Jordanian border. In April Iraqi troop movements were noted along the Jordanian border. Four Republican Guard Divisions are stationed across a 300-sq.km area including four major Iraqi bases: H-3 Main, H-3 Southwest and H-3 Northwest – 350 km. west of Baghdad - and the al Baghdadi ground and air base west of the town of Rutbah.

We do not know the extent of Sadam's Scud's and if the Iranians add their missile (with a 3000 kilometer range) using WMD we might only have air power left to effectively counterattack.

DEBKA does report some wild things, but the reference I used was not "out in left field" - the Iranians are trying to develope WMD and have strong political and economic ties to Iraq.

What else would you like me to comment on?
92 posted on 08/19/2002 3:11:18 AM PDT by efnwriter
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To: efnwriter; defenderSD; American in Israel; John_11_25
I for one would actually favor having the Middle East blow up into Islamic rage the moment we bring Hussein down. I would favor seeing every Arab nation in the region taking up arms and engaging the United States.

It is the single greatest way to defeat terrorism and permanently secure Israel.

Would alot of Americans and Israelis die as a result...yes.

Would America and Israel prevail...yes.

We could crush Arab militancy once and forever. Hisbollah, Islamic Jihad, the wahabbis, all of them erased. New Governments could be installed and oil would flow freely without the threat of embargo or sanction affecting the world market....because it is the World's market and not ours that takes the hit from Middle Eestern embargos...it isnt the 70's anymore.

Palestinians that werent wiped out by the Israelis would be forced to capitulate because they would no longer have support from outside souces....save the whining from Europe.

Unfortunately I dont believe the Arab Nations taken as a whole has the courage to stand up to the US militarily. So it'll probably be a slow drawn out process of removing Hussein and then strong arming the others. I have no problem with twisting any Arab nations wrist because in the end I believe what we want is correct and what they want is not. I'd rather let the eurowimps and Liberals ponder moralistic results. Iraq probably will try to pull something. Anything they could try to do in theatre is a waste of time and can be dealt with. Any missle launch would be defeated by either American Patriot missile systems or by the Israeli Sparrow systems [which are reported to be more effective].

Any Iraqi movement of troops and material is watched at all times and well considered. All Iraq can do practically is lay there and take it.

Are there a million and one scenarios possible....yes.
Do any of them lead to an Iraqi trump card....no.

China doesnt have the capability to intervene on any practical level and though far from certain it is highly unlikely that the Russians would flip given what they stand to lose in squaring up to the US Military.

The only real option for Hussein and the other Arab states is a Chemical/Biological/Nuclear attack on our major cities [New York City, Chicago etc, etc.] and Washington DC.

I would expect them to use diplomats or people with diplomatic immunity to pull it off. An attack with synergy in several different locations [LA, Houston, Miami, Indianapolis, Denver] would be the best option for Arab states. They wont face us Militarily but does anyone have real doubt that they are willing to use terrorists to attack us internally? 9/11 serves as an example and encouragement to embark on this sort of thing.

I do not know how possible this is or isnt as I am not competent to speak on the surveillance/security that surrounds Arab diplomats in this country or how well we monitor diplomatic pouches and shipments to the various embassies and UN.

In the end...anything done in the AO by Iraq is a waste of our time...and just drags things out. His defeat will be secured the moment George W. Bush makes the call.

Iran may play cute little games with Iraq and anyone else but reality is that right now their greatest threat is internal. They've imported Saudi and Iraqi brute squads to come in and crush interal revolt because regular Persian soldiers arent doing so with any zeal. The slightest hint of a serious American military intervention...for any reason...would bring about their fall quickly...they cannot be trusted as they are devout Muslims but they will try to walk upright in light of American presence in the Gulf region.

This is an instance where might actually does make right.

All of this is pure specualtion and opinion but it is more based on reality and practical ability then the original article written by efnwriter.

101 posted on 08/19/2002 11:01:23 AM PDT by VaBthang4
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