[Kermit]

Interesting. Not the first place, where I've read that the war has already started. Bush did promise that this would be a war like no other.

[EBUCK]

There are no highfalutin' declarations.

Not that our supreme law of the land would demand such a thing. I mean it's not like the pres has to ask permission to commit our troops and resources to a war or anything, that would of course curb his power and subject him to the people. Wouldn't want that.

EBUCK

[RightWhale]

Good find. It has the ring of accuracy, including improved versions of various reports from other sources such as DEBKA that are normally garbled at best.

[Rocko]

Reference bump.

[The Great Satan]

Bush is going to implicate Saddam in 9-11. That has been already been promised, sotto voce, and the leadership will deliver when the time comes to act -- just as Tony Blair promised last month. Bush will also either expose Saddam's attempted anthrax blackmail, or simply allow the phony "Amerithrax" investigation to die on the vine, and let people draw their own conclusions. He is going to ask the Iraqis to hand over Saddam for trial -- which is going to take everyone by surprise, because we are being set up to expect an attack or an invasion. All possible means will be used to isolate Saddam (just as Arafat has been isolated), including military pressure. However, there will be no direct assualt on Baghdad, either by aerial bombardment or ground invasion. Far too dangerous, given Saddam's WMD threat to US civilians. However, there is nothing to stop us from reprising the Afghanistan strategy and gradually lopping off bits of Iraq over a period of 12-48 months, while we build up our civil defenses. Kurdistan would be one obvious place to start the dismemberment. By the end of this process, with the threat of nuclear-biological war at flash-point, Saddam will no longer be able to intimidate people to stay in Baghdad (they are already sweating bullets and leaving in droves), and Saddam will be a leader without a country. Better hope that imprisonment looks better to him than death.

[maquiladora]

In late June, the Turkish foreign ministry reported heavy air traffic of US military transport planes.

American cargo planes are landing and taking off on weekly basis from Deyar and other bases in Turkey.
Theres also a lot of pre-positioning at Incirlik.

Still though, I think we're still quite a while away from any military action.

[dpwiener]

I've also had similar thoughts. Among the potential problems with an Iraqi invasion are:

(1) Saddam retaliates against Israel and against U.S. military forces with chemical/biological/radiological weapons, because he figures he's a dead man and has nothing to lose;

2) Other Arab countries shut off oil shipments and encourage a new wave of suicide attacks on Israel;

3) World opinion lines up behind Iraq and actively opposes the U.S. (e.g., trade disruptions);

4) Americans around the world are targeted by terrorists (presuming they lack the capability to again attack us in our homeland);

(5) Bush gives up the element of tactical surprise by requesting Congressional authorization or a Declaration of War, or else is heavily criticized at home for failing to do so.

Now none of the above problems are insurmountable, and indeed some are rather unlikely. But if there is no distinct start to the war, but it just slowly increases in intensity, then there is no occasion for any of the above to happen. Of greatest importance is that Saddam might refrain from using WMDs, because he couldn't be sure of his fate and because it would be much harder to rationalize to world opinion (and would certainly precipitate an all-out military offensive by the U.S.).

[the_doc]

Impressive writer, at the very least.

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

I've always been a subtle contrarian.

I believe all the European bluster against our impending "war" against Iraq is just a smoke screen to the reality.

That reality says that the Euros are on board.
The Saudis are on board.
The Dems and Pubbies are on board.

The proof of WMDs has been shown to the leaders.

When the time comes, we will all be amazed at the speed and efficiency with which Iraqi opposition will be dispatched.

The plan is to catch the enemy with his pants down.

The battle plan could be called the "Clinton Operation".

[Davea]

Good article. Indeed the war's on. On the other front, the Israeli's have Lebanon, Syria in the crosshairs after having placed the Palestinians in a stranglehold. Interesting and historical time in the Middle East.

[Billthedrill]

Well, with respect, what is being described is little more than prepositioning, logistical maneuvering. It isn't much more than high-tech sabre-rattling at the moment.

There will be very little doubt when the actual war, if any, really does start. Trust me on that one.

[RedBloodedAmerican]

He said there would be unseen battles. He also said there would not be invasions, but specific targets. IMO Iraq is one of them. Quick in and out.

[Dog Gone]

Already, 1,800 US troops (mostly Special Forces) are inside Iraq, at least since the end of March and, in fact, units there were visited two months ago by CIA director George Tenet during a side trip from Israel and Palestine.

[LibWhacker]

If there is even one Iraqi general who gives a tinker's damn about his army, now would be a good time to walk into the office next door and put a bullet in Saddam's head.

[foreshadowed at waco]

Today on Meet the Press Henry Kissinger said that before Bush 41 got commitments for a coalition in the Gulf War that he had put almost all the military in place. Kissinger said that once everything is set up that many Euros will jump on board.