Top Republicans Break With Bush on Iraq Strategy

The New York Times ^ | 08/16/2002 | TODD S. PURDUM and PATRICK E. TYLER

[Texasforever]

China gets the vast bulk of foreign investment of any developing country.

You are making the same mistake Japan did. They were just like you after the war. Their domestic economy grew at a fast rate because of offshore investment and cheap labor. Japan was seen as the next super power economically. They were rolling in dough and they provided workers to the world. Then those workers started demanding a share of the pie. Gradually labor costs rose to, at one point, higher than the United States, foreign investment dropped and now Japan teeters on the brink of bankruptcy on a consistent basis. You are making your predictions based on the number of warm bodies you can put to work. That is a double-edged sword because at some point they will demand their share of the pie and given China's history, that will end in one of two ways. Another revolution or rising labor costs that will result in having to compete on an equal footing with regard to the labor costs. China has one real asset available on which to base its economy for the foreseeable future and that a tremendous supply of un-skilled labor. Once that labor is too expensive, that advantage becomes a liability.

[AIG]

China is certainly still a developing country. But it's just progressing faster and more effectively than today's Third World republics (India, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Argentina, Turkey, S. Africa, etc.), which are plagued by legislative gridlock and majority-poor populations and thus majority-socialist politicians who oppose capitalist reforms. China's authoritarian government can enact economic reforms much more expeditiously. Despite 50 years of democracy, India has yet to enact basic labor reforms that would allow private businesses to hire people when they want to and fire people when they want to, or basic land reforms that allows private real estate transactions to occur. This year, China will exceed $50 bil. in direct foreign investment for the first time, which is more than all the other developing countries put together. So while China still has a long way to go, it's more promising than every other large developing country.

[AIG]

Japan's economy today is in bad shape, but the tremendous leap that Japan made from Third World to First World status over the past several decades was no "mistake," as you say, or bad thing. Let's worry about getting China rich first before. In fact, getting China rich to the point that its per-capita GDP is on First World's levels is virtually the entire goal. Then China can adopt democracy at that time, if it wants to. The rest of E. Asia got rich under one-party rule over the past 50 years and exports, so China is merely following this proven, effective path.

[Torie]

China will not really get going until it can allocate capital efficiently. It won't do that with a centrally directed economic system and insolvent banks, protectionist barriars, and a dysfunctional legal system that cannot be trusted by investors. It will for so long as that obtains be a poor man's Japan.

[Texasforever]

Then China can adopt democracy at that time, if it wants

That is the ass backward logic that ensures that China will never be "1st world". It will just be the "1st world's" sweatshop.

[AIG]

China's banks have problems because they have to support inefficient, overmanned state-sector industries. But China is trying to lay off its state-sector workers as we speak, a process which has led to labor unrest but ultimately will make the banks healthier. Also, China's willingness to lay off people in the first place indicates China's strong desire to move toward capitalism, which is a good thing.

[Ken H]

"I'm just disabusing Americans of the notion that Chinese don't use the internet with facts."

On the topic of Chinese internet use:

If a Chinese citizen reads Free Republic and prints up some of its pages, would he be subject to arrest and imprisonment?

[Torie]

The problem is that to have a reasonably healthy first world economy you need a free information and rule of law economy, non centrally directed. For that to happen, the authoritarian facist Chinese government would have to go. It shows no signs of doing so, and retricts all of the above. Thus China has a second class economy glass ceiling, into which it will be bumping its head.

[AIG]

The rest of E. Asia followed a one-party path toward First World economic status over the past 50 years and only afterwards adopted democracy. This is not "ass backwards" but what actually has occurred in E. Asia's modern history. Go read a history book. While you're at it, read about the European "enlightened despots" of the 18th century who helped set the stage later for modern democracy in the French and American Revolutions by codifying the laws, private property rights, etc. that allowed middle-classes to grow, which became the foundation of modern democracy. Remember, it was the "bourgeoisie" who led the French Revolution.

[general_re]

It will just be the "1st world's" sweatshop.

"Upper Volta, with missiles," as Helmut Schmidt wisely described the Soviet Union...

[AIG]

Today's Third World republics have all the freedoms you speak of; however, they lag China economically by a wide margin. So your theory doesn't hold water. Remember, China does really get 20 times more foreign direct investment than India. Freedom in today's Third World republics has only meant endless legislative gridlock and needless delay of economic reforms. Theory is one thing, but you have to start paying attention to reality.

[Torie]

E Asia really doesn't have viable democracies anywhere except Japan, which lost a war, Taiwan to some extent, which is a special case, and to some extent S. Korea, which is also to a large degree a client state. The rest are all shakey on a host of Western norms, including fair elections and the impartial application of the rule of law by a truly independent judiciary.

[Texasforever]

Yep. If one of the oldest civilizations on earth is still in the development stages, I think that, possibly, it needs to rethink its development model.

[Torie]

I don't mean to suggest that the Chinese are other than a hard working and determined people. But there are destined to hit a glass ceiling soon without major changes, and it will be far short of even prosperous second world status.

[lewislynn]

How about Gerald (make Puerto Rico a state) Ford?...What did that mental giant have to say about it?

[AIG]

Whoever said those democracies were stable or healthy? They're jokes. They might be better off reverting to their one-party rulers they had before because those rulers seemed to perform economically better, especially in Taiwan's case. Taiwan grew fabulously rich under one-party rule over several decades and then after adopting full-fledged democracy in the last 2 years, Taiwan's become an economic basketcase with massive capital flight. Same with Russia. Massive capital flight.

[Political Junkie Too]

This is why the Democrats make absolutely sure that they all speak the same story. We joke about talking points being faxed every day, but you see what happens when people on the other side go out and say their own opinions? The press pounces on it in order to create the impression of disunity and weakness.

The next step for the Times is to use this as a weapon to try to force Bush to abandon furthering the war on terrorism because his "advisors" are split on what to do.

-PJ

[mercy]

The world wants us to sit back and absorb the next attack ... likely to be exponentially more destructive. Bush's daddie's boys agree. I reackon we will. Maybe we will get serrious next time around. Maybe.

[Torie]

I take it you think most places would do better with authoritarian regimes. That is precisely the mentality which makes this planet a dangerous place, particularly to the extent that notion is extant in China.

[AIG]

First things first. Authoritarian government to pass economic reforms expeditiously without the trouble of legislative gridlock, developing a majority-middle class population as a result, and then possibly adopting full-fledged democracy later. This pattern happened in Europe in the 18th century and the E. Asian "tigers" in the last 50 years.