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Doesn't our president have the most ADORABLE expressions -- he is such a humble yet charismatic man!!

Received a great memo from Matthew Dowd, senior advisor/pollster for the RNC and President Bush [NOTE: The content of this memo reinforces the analysis I posted last evening!]:

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Matthew Dowd, Senior Advisor, RNC

RE: Investors vs. Non-Investors:
Why The Democrat Attacks Aren't Working

Since the mid-80’s the number of people invested in the stock market has more than doubled. Today roughly two-thirds of American voters have some investment in the stock market from individual stocks, retirement plans,
mutual funds, etc. This is a group that carries quite a bit of weight today at the polls, but lately is has been a bit misinterpreted.

Democrats, some in the media and many pundits have assumed that the stock market falling over the last few months spelled doom for President Bush and the Republican Party. This assumption was based on the fact that so many people have investments in the market and have experienced losses. It was assumed that these investors would blame Republicans. Some "renowned" pollsters and pundits even went as far as to assert that the anger among this group of voters would mean serious trouble for the Republican Party.

I hesitate to bring this up (not really), but the facts dispute these conclusions. In January of this year Republicans had a generic ballot advantage of eight points among voters who invest (Republicans 40% to
Democrats 32%). Among voters who do not invest, Democrats had an advantage of one or two points. Again, keep in mind voters who invest out number non-investors by two to one. At this time, President Bush’s approval rating was in the mid-80’s with both groups.

Today, in the latest tracking polls, Republicans have a net generic ballot advantage of 13 points (45% for Republicans and 32% for Democrats) among investors. This is a net increase of five points since January of this year among voters who have been hardest hit by a decline in the stock market! Among voters who do not invest, Democrats have an eighteen-point advantage.
Non-investing voters are dominated to a large degree by Democratic partisans. Again, investing voters far outnumber non investors, which is why when you
look at the whole group of voters, the generic ballot number is tied, which it has been for six months.

Further, currently President Bush enjoys an approval rating in the mid-70’s among investors, and an approval rating in the low 70’s among non-investors. Thus, while we predicted the President’s approval rating would slowly decline over time, his decline among investing voters has actually been slower than among non-investors. Again, not supporting the pundit speculation.

So the question is why? There are several reasons. First, investing voters, as a whole are more optimistic than non-investors because they are in the market. While investors are worried about their retirement and savings, they understand better the cyclical nature of stock fluctuations and movement. They generally have an attitude that even though things are not where they would like them, the market has a tendency to rise over time. Second, the investing voters see the government playing a reduced role in the very large historic economic cycles. Though they list the economy as their number one issue and
desire further action, they have a pretty realistic understanding of the ebb and flow of business growth. While they want the political sphere to play a constructive role and believe that policies like tax cuts, corporate accountability rules with tough enforcement and free trade can assist in positive movement, these voters understand that the economy follows long term
patterns not necessarily dictated by hour by hour partisan back and forth. Interestingly, while Republicans have faired worse over the last few months among non-investors, the number one issue among non-investors is education, not the economy as it is with investors.

Finally, a major political development over the course of the last few years, as more and more Americans are part of the investing world, is the "Investment Gap" that has widened and become significant over time. As one can see from the above figures, the "Investment Gap" now is staggering 31 points (Republican generic ballot advantage of 13 plus the Democrat advantage with non-investors of 18). In January this "Investment Gap" was 10 points. In the past, when the now famous "Gender Gap" was highlighted as significant it was 15 to 20 points.

Today, Democrats are having difficulty at the polls to a large degree because of their inability to garner a competitive number of votes among this rather dominant group of voters who invest. A key reason they don’t have strong support is the party’s lack of a clearly defined economic agenda as a companion to their attacks. Further complicating things for Democrats is the fact that this investing group of voters is more moderate than non-investors, contains a larger share of union households, is split evenly between men and women, and nearly two-thirds of the women in this group work outside the home.
And because investors represent two of every three voters and will continue to grow over time, this puts the Democratic Party in a very difficult spot.