All polls I have seen by R and neutral sources say Hutchinson is ahead in Ark.
I do not think I have seen any poll at all showing Wellstone ahead since say June 1, maybe April 1.
As to Torricelli, of course, that race is just now coming into play and being admitted as very close or even leaning R. That is why I have my "all others gee-whiz" item; it seems there is always some state that had been thought secure, where just in the last few days it collapses for the D and the R gets it.
Another question is whether you see any Republican hope at all in my "little 5:"-- IA, GA, MT, LA, and IL. I just see very large imponderables not yet assessed, the campaigns are not fought yet, new faces not yet known, old fogies not yet dissed. Indictments not handed down, whatever.
BTW even using your numbers, I still get an expected R gain around 1.23 +/-, where only 0.5 or better would switch the Senate.
On November 6, look for all the stories about how the pollsters got all the races wrong. Read the speculation regarding how the Democrats squeaked out 1% victories across the board when the polls had them 10% behind.
I bet that they're writing these stories now, for publication at a later date.
-PJ
You are correct that it is difficult to objectively assess most of these races, unless one lives in one of those states (which I do not). The most recent polling in these states are three months old (or older), before the opposition candidates were well known. Montana was clearly a lost opportunity for the GOP; had Marc Racicot run for this seat, he almost assuredly would have defeated Baucus (a January poll had Racicot with a 19-point lead in a hypothetical matchup). As it stands, a mid-April Democrat poll had Baucus with a 33-point advantage. I'd say this will be a very tough prospect for the GOP.
Likewise for GA and LA. Even just one year ago, both of these races were pretty high on the GOP watch-list; both Cleland and Landrieu had razor-thin victories in 1996, and appeared vulnerable. But it seems each has firmed up their support. Spring polling showed both Senators with well-over 20-point leads, but again, that was probably against little-known candidates at the time. I think Cleland will be very tough to beat, considerning his military service and disabilities. The strategy in LA seems to be to try and run enough alternative GOP candidates to keep Landrieu under 50%, and forced into a run-off election against the then-better-known Republican who finishes second.
I can't really comment on IL. Apparently Durbin's approval ratings have not been stellar, but I've seen no discussion of this race since May. At that point Durbin had a 20-point lead, but I would expect that to tighten up a bit. Enough to make it competitive? I'm skeptical.
Iowa would appear to be the best bet for a GOP upset. Harkin's approval ratings are not particularly strong, and Ganske had drawn within single digits in a late June independent poll.
Regarding the most recent polling I've come across in the other competitive races we've discussed:
Colorado: A mid-June Dem poll had Strickland up by 1%. An early July independent poll had Allard up by 9%. And a late July Dem poll had Allard up by 3%.
Minnesota: Two late June independent polls showed Wellstone with 3 and 4% point leads. A mid July poll showed Coleman with a 4-point lead, but it's not clear who sponsored this poll. Aside from that one, the only polls that have shown Coleman with a lead have been GOP sponsored polls.
Missouri: A late July media poll showed Talent with a 6-point lead, but the poll might be a bit suspicious because it adds up to 100%, with no undecideds. An early July independent poll showed Carnahan up by 8 points.
South Dakota: A mid-July GOP poll showed Thune with a 2-point lead. That confirms to me that this race is truly a tossup. As an item of interest, a May GOP poll found that Johnson gets a 10-point bump when it's made clear a vote for Johnson would help to keep Daschle on as majority leader.
Oregon: The last two polls I have information on (early to mid May) showed Smith up by 12 points in each.
A special thanks to Freeper "Coop" for supplementing my polling data!