To: AIG
But most Americans prefer white-collar jobs to blue-collar or manual-labor jobs these days. I was talking about the white-collar jobs. You must be aware that the jobs that are now leaving this country are the white-collar jobs, blue-collar jobs left during the time period when we were prospering and all a blue-collar worker had to due was get some education and move into a white-collar job. My question to you is what will happen when the white-collar working class people in America can not find work because the jobs are being shipped to Asia?
To: blueriver
In a capitalist system, there is no such thing as "guaranteed" employment, even for white collar workers. As Rush Limbaugh would say, this is part of the "creative destruction" of capitalism. White collar workers who lose their jobs simply have to retrain and find other jobs. The alternative is communistic "guaranteed" employment, which is a failed formula. China is as we speak laying off its state-sector workers who previously had "guaranteed" employment under China's centrally-planned economic system. It would be ironic if the US chose a communistic "guaranteed" employment system just as China abandons its own "guaranteed" employment system. There's no doubt that some white collar jobs will get destroyed. But so far, I don't see any evidence of America suffering a net outflow of white collar jobs. But even if that were to occur, that's all a part of the capitalist process. If Indian programmers an do a job more cheaply than American programmers, so be it. If Chinese chip designers can do a job more cheaply than American chip designers, so be it. That's the only way to go, because the alternative ("guaranteed" employment) eventually only leads to inefficiencies. But luckily for America, there's no evidence of America's white collar workforce getting shrunk in any substantial away.
Warren Buffett wrote two articles in Fortune in the past two years explaining how America's economy will actually soar through 2015. He outlined some "17-year cycles" in the US economy that have recurred regularly over the last 100 years. The 1998-2015 will be like the 1930-1947 period and the 1964-1981 period when US GDP climbed around 360-410% during these two periods (but also saw the Dow flatline due to rising interest rates). America's economy is cyclical, and by 2015 America's GDP will be around $40 tril. so don't worry about America's economy.
94 posted on
08/11/2002 7:15:28 PM PDT by
AIG
To: blueriver
Another thing to consider is that, unlike Taiwan, America is basically not an export-driven economy. America has a large domestic economy of its own to be the primary driver of America's economic growth. So America is not nearly as threatened as Taiwan is by the export of both blue- and white-collar jobs to the mainland.
95 posted on
08/11/2002 7:27:25 PM PDT by
AIG
To: blueriver
Another thing Buffett said is that the "nature of the business" of service sector firms is inherently more profitable than that of manufacturing sector firms. The reason is that manufacturing firms require huge, ongoing, expensive capital expenditures in plant and equipment just to maintain their ability to do business. Buffett says plant and equipment are the "worst kind of costs" because they experience heavy depreciation and are vulnerable during periods of rising inflation. On the other hand, service sector firms usually have much lower capital expenditure requirements, if at all, and are generally more profitable. Advanced economies like the US naturally gravitate toward more profitable ventures like the service sector and leave low-profit manufacturing to Third World countries like China. Service jobs generally also require higher levels of education than manufacturing jobs, and advanced economies like the US tend to have better education systems and more highly educated people. The ultimate service sector industry is the financial services industry. They don't sell any actual, tangible product. Nevertheless, it is a highly profitable industry. Real profits, real wealth generation. Service firms wouldn't be engaged in service businesses in the first place if it wasn't profitable. Buffett's big holdings don't include any firms involved in heavy manufacturing.
96 posted on
08/11/2002 7:37:56 PM PDT by
AIG
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