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Get set for a totally new China
The Straits Times (Singapore) ^ | 2002-08-09 | By KENICHI OHMAE

Posted on 08/08/2002 7:00:00 PM PDT by Lessismore

OVER the coming decades, China will become a thoroughly new form of political and economic entity. Brutally competitive in both politics and world markets, innovative and resilient, China will be more dominant than any nation except America.

Such a shift in the global balance of power occurs only about once every century and is comparable to the emergence of the United States as a world power a century ago.

The magnitude of this change is due, in part, to a radical and rapid shift in China's governance.

Because the shift has been so sudden, it is tempting to write it off as a fluke. But China's restructuring is permanent and will affect all aspects of national life, as well as its global standing.

The People's Republic now embodies two systems: the centralised, autocratic communist administration, dominated by an outdated ideology and military interests, and the decentralised, free-market economic regime.

Whether deliberately or not, China is reorganising itself to balance central authority and common purpose with decentralised freedom, in the same way that nimble companies balance home-office and divisional control.

The result is a new geopolitical model - the country as corporation.

Call the new China 'Chung-hua, Inc'. (Chunghua translates as 'China' and actually means 'the prosperous centre of the universe'.) Like many corporations, China is moving most decision-making to the 'business unit' level - semi-autonomous, self-governing economic region-states that compete fiercely against each other for capital, technology and human resources (just as American states do).

This new, decentralised free-market regime encompasses only a small part of China's vast territory, and many Chinese officials still refuse to acknowledge its existence.

Indeed, only seven years ago, the word 'federation' was banned from the Chinese language; companies like Federal Transport or Federation Merchants were required to change their names. Today, China has the most federal governance structure of any large nation except the US.

Two broad categories of region-states exist.

The first are relatively small, comprising cities and their surrounding areas, generally with a population of five to seven million people. Some of these - Shenzhen, Shanghai, Dalian, Tianjin, Shenyang, Xiamen, Qingdao and Suzhou - are now growing economically at a rate of 15-20 per cent a year - faster than such Asian 'tigers' as Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand and Korea ever did. These smaller region-states, in turn, are propelling the growth of larger mega-regions, with populations approaching 100 million each.

The mega-regions, which tend to share common dialects, ethnic identities and histories, are becoming economic powerhouses in their own right. If they were separate nations, five of them - the Yangtze Delta, the Northeastern Tristates area (formerly known as Manchuria), the Pearl River Delta, the Beijing-Tianjin corridor and Shandong - would rank among Asia's 10 largest economies.

Regional governments also have been toughened up by the Chung-hua, Inc ethic. Most officials are appointed, not elected, but their posts are not sinecures. Not only are they held to targets of 7 per cent annual economic growth or better (like many corporate executives), but they must also improve environmental quality, build better infrastructure, and reduce local crime levels. Last October, a half-dozen bureaucrats were expelled from one of China's major cities for not meeting their economic-growth and security targets.

Local officials are often considered heroes, not oppressors. In January last year, Mr Bo Xhi Lai, then mayor of Dalian, was promoted to governor of Liaoning province. Thousands of women, many in tears, spontaneously came to a park to bid him farewell.

During Mr Bo's nine-year tenure, Dalian evolved from a ramshackle port into one of the cleanest and most prosperous cities in Asia. It now has a street life more vibrant than Singapore, a layout reminiscent of Paris before the car, and a reputation among Japanese tourists for high-quality hotels and restaurants.

All of this is taking place in a nation where communist ideology is still strong. Introduction of foreign companies, technologies, and unfettered mobility for corporations and people would be seen as a threat to the communist system if publicly acknowledged.

Instead, China's highest officials insist they run the most centrally controlled government in the world, with full authority to appoint or dismiss mayors, governments and bureaucrats.

Strictly speaking, they are right. But they dare not overrun the open, commercial ethic of China's region-states - the source of their country's prosperity.

So debates about China should not be cast as a simple matter of right or wrong, but of when and how.

A decade or two of economic freedom and growth will give China's people an appetite for self-determination and participation that may surprise the rest of us. Already, some village leaders are elected; this may slowly spread to regional officials, and then upwards to the central government.

Even top communists appear to acknowledge and embrace change. Recently, China's head of state, Mr Jiang Zemin, said that the Communist Party 'represents' every good aspect of China, including wealthy capitalists, not just the poor and the proletariat.

We should not be surprised if soon - perhaps at the party's 2002 General Assembly - China's leaders call for a new doctrine to match its new model.

The writer is one of the world's leading business strategists. He is President of Ohmae & Associates and has advised many of Japan's governments.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: chinastuff; clashofcivilizatio; prclovefest; redchinaexcrement; slavelabor; zanupf
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1 posted on 08/08/2002 7:00:00 PM PDT by Lessismore
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To: Lessismore
The Specifics of Perestroika in China
2 posted on 08/08/2002 7:05:58 PM PDT by Orion78
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To: Lessismore
NEP.
3 posted on 08/08/2002 7:08:32 PM PDT by tet68
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To: Lessismore
Actually, re: China and change, the more China changes, the more it remains the same. Call it what you want: dynastic, imperial, nationalist, communist, perestroikist -- and you still have the same thing: the elite, the bosses, the bureaucrats, all on the take, a little feudalistic, ON THE ONE HAND, shouting "Jump!", and the masses by the thousands of millions, already in the air, their buckets slung over their shoulders suspended from a stick, asking "How high?", ON THE OTHER.
4 posted on 08/08/2002 7:16:58 PM PDT by Migraine
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To: Lessismore
China will be more dominant than any nation except America

I wouldn't be so sure.

5 posted on 08/08/2002 7:18:25 PM PDT by Jordi
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To: Jordi
The author is Japanese and polite.
6 posted on 08/08/2002 7:20:13 PM PDT by Lessismore
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To: Jordi
America better get ready to strap it on -- the suddenly cocky Chinese and their billion strong Army backed by the computer technology Benedict Clinton handed them are going to be coming sooner or later.
7 posted on 08/08/2002 7:24:30 PM PDT by F16Fighter
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To: Lessismore
I'm not Japanese and probably I'm not polite, but China has the numbers to become "dominant" in a wider sense.
8 posted on 08/08/2002 7:25:59 PM PDT by Jordi
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To: Migraine
sino bump
9 posted on 08/08/2002 7:26:20 PM PDT by Soul Citizen
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To: F16Fighter
the computer technology Benedict Clinton handed them are going to be coming sooner or later.

Don't forget the technology that Microsoft, Motorola, IBM, and other major corporations are sending over there.

10 posted on 08/08/2002 7:32:09 PM PDT by blueriver
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To: Lessismore
It's pretty damn interesting that a Japanese writer would be so bullish about China and its future. Here's a question: How many Communist countries have excelled in the business world?

Here's an answer: Zero.

Look at Cuba - a failure. Look at North Korea - a failure and a disaster. Look at Viet Nam - also a failure. Look at Iraq (pseudo Communist) - the avg wage is $3 per month and the people are withering on the vine. And, of course, let's look at China, a country hungry for more, more aid, more territory (e.g. Taiwan, don't forget Tibet), more recognition on the world stage, etc. etc. etc.

China will, INMO, continue to be a failure til it rejects Communism and embraces the idea of a free Republic.

For a great perspective on China, read "White Swan."
11 posted on 08/08/2002 7:34:48 PM PDT by Chu Gary
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To: maui_hawaii; Brian Allen; Tailgunner Joe
ping
12 posted on 08/08/2002 7:35:08 PM PDT by shaggy eel
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To: *China stuff; *china_stuff; *Clash of Civilizatio
.
13 posted on 08/08/2002 7:43:33 PM PDT by Libertarianize the GOP
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To: Lessismore
Time to take the chains off the Japanese military. Reviving the capabilities of the second largest economy on earth would create a perfect balance to the growth in China.
14 posted on 08/08/2002 7:46:23 PM PDT by Blackyce
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Comment #15 Removed by Moderator

To: Chu Gary
A more fitting comparasion for nowdays China are the Third Reich and Imperial Japan. Of course those were Fascist regimes, not Comminists, but who cares. In the last 20 years China develped a strong industrial base, and its GDP increased dramatically to become the world 2nd largest (and still growing 8% this year). The regime is fully aware that only capitalism produces wealth,and that wealth is necessary to be powerful. It gives great importance to education and know-how theft ; enterprenaural initiatives (albeit in a deeply corrupt enviroment) are flourishing. The masterminds of the party are growing up a medium class of reltively wealth and highly nationalistic city dwellers ,to be the leading class of such "new China". The productive system doesn't have Jews to exploit like the Nazis had, but they have some 700-800 millions of starving peasants:cheap slave-like workforce. Anybody opposing the regime is put to death immediately.
16 posted on 08/08/2002 7:52:07 PM PDT by Jordi
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To: shaggy eel
This is nothing new. Its been thought of, and proposed long ago. Dr. Sun Yat Sen had this in mind from the get go.

read about the flag that tells the general story.

Notice everyone was equal.

There is a WHOLE LOT to be said about all this...

17 posted on 08/08/2002 7:57:57 PM PDT by maui_hawaii
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To: shaggy eel
Communist interpretation of history is bogus.
18 posted on 08/08/2002 8:00:11 PM PDT by maui_hawaii
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To: blueriver
"Don't forget the technology that Microsoft, Motorola, IBM, and other major corporations are sending over there."

Thanks for reminding me to buy a rickshaw and a 'Speak Mandarin -- Impress Your Friends' tape in time for the invasion ;-)

19 posted on 08/08/2002 8:04:55 PM PDT by F16Fighter
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To: Lessismore
China kicks ass, just ask 'em.
20 posted on 08/08/2002 8:06:16 PM PDT by AdA$tra
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