"... any "siege of Baghdad" would follow quickly upon successes elsewhere across the country. Given the overwhelming advantage the Americans and their allies would hold outside the city, Iraqi forces (both elite and not) would realize this was the end of the line for Saddam and company. Whether the leaders of the Republican Guard would fight to the death at that point is unknowable, but it is likely the rank and file would not. Iraq's soldiers know that an American conquest of their capital will not result in the wholesale destruction of their homes and the slaughter of their families.However Saddam came to power and ruled in his early days, he has remained in power by creating overwhelming fear among his subordinates. Once he loses the ability to sustain that fear, how can he maintain the discipline and loyalty of a sufficient number of troops to hold out in Baghdad?
No doubt some in Saddam's inner circle figure that, once captured, they will be held accountable for the crimes they have perpetrated against their countrymen. On the other hand, being captured, tried by an international tribunal, and sentenced to life in prison beats dying a violent death for the sake of a tyrannical thug. No doubt many of Saddam's cronies will prefer to rip off their uniforms and try to disappear into the crowds of Baghdad or into the countryside en route to escaping from the country. This was the choice made by many in Manuel Noriega's Panama Defense Force in 1989 (when, by the way, there was significant urban combat). Once Noriega's officers and soldiers reckoned that he would no longer be ruling Panama--and that the Americans would--their perception of their own interests was reversed. Generals in Iraq who have understood President Bush's rhetoric over the past year may already have made this calculation. ..."
The lightning capture, by Americans, of twenty significant offices, palaces and command centers in Baghdad would put Sadaam on the run and would mean the vaunted Republican Guards would have to counterattack exposing themselves to US airpower.
Civilian casulties would be minimal because the US troops would be in Iraqi Government installations and the Iraqis would be in the urban open. No civilians would hang around.
Of course, the Iraqi troops really do not like to fight other armies and may just quit.