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To: The Great Satan; piasa
Are we still waiting for a big story soon......as you said in an earlier post?

33 posted on 08/06/2002 3:30:15 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: Howlin; Mitchell; Nogbad; EternalHope
"Soon" could be six months or it could be tomorrow. My sense is it's not going to be a year, even though I don't think we'll be in a position to attack Iraq with impunity even then. However, that LA Times story and the due diligence search of Barbara Rosenberg's favorite anthrax suspect, along with the general tenor of events here and in Israel, gives me the feeling that the strategy will not be to wait until we are fully protected from Saddam's deterrent.

I think Dubya's strategy is going to be a surprise. I can't really guess what it is going to be. Remember his interview with the BBC a few months back, where they asked about such-and-such with respect to Iraq, and he just said "I have a different plan," and left it at that? Not exactly cocky, but like: I know what I'm going to do, and I'm not telling you.

I cannot resist speculating though. I don't think we're going to invade Iraq any time soon. I think, once the evidence is layed out on the table regarding Saddam's authorship of 9-11 and the subsequent anthrax threats, Saddam is going to be in an untenable situation -- even if people understand that his deterrent is good enough to keep us from striking back for now. People will understand that that situation will change eventually -- maybe in a year, maybe in two or three years. And, sooner or later, the conflict will be resolved in our favor. The only question is, how many people are going to die, on both sides, before Saddam is out. Even without making any sudden, dangerous moves, this will create the right incentive structure for a resolution. The resolution will involve a military coup in Iraq, and the handing over of Saddam Hussein, alive, to the United States.

The downside of explicitly naming Saddam Hussein as the mastermind of 9-11 before we are able to safely move against him is that we will have to endure a period of great economic uncertainty and generalized anxiety, which might last for years if the crisis cannot be resolved quickly. That is why everything has been kept ambiguous up to now -- hypotheticals do not way heavily on the public consciousness. However, at some point there is a trade-off between the benefits of facing up to reality, and the economic and psychological costs of same. Bush will calibrate this as carefully as he can, but it looks like we're inching towards the reality side of the equation.

So, that's currently my best guess as how we are going to extract ourselves from this nightmarish situation. Asked about Saddam during his last press conference, Bush's key remark was "Everybody better remember -- I'm a very patient man." Think back to the Florida election debacle, and you have a perfect model for how Bush handles things, for what qualities of character he leverages in a difficult situation. No fireworks, no hysterics, just calm resolution and unwavering commitment to a rationally-calculated objective. Expect more of the same.

42 posted on 08/06/2002 4:21:04 PM PDT by The Great Satan
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