Taiwan Chief Softens Position on Independence From China

The New York Times ^ | August 6, 2002 | KEITH BRADSHER

[ASaneGuy]

Excerpts:

TAIPEI, Taiwan, Aug. 6 - Seeking to allay the concerns of local business leaders and Washington, President Chen Shui-bian today softened his position on Taiwan's degree of independence from China, even as Beijing continued criticizing him heavily.
President Chen infuriated Beijing on Saturday by declaring in a speech that Taiwan and China were separate countries and by endorsing the passage of legislation that would make it possible to hold national referendums on issues of national sovereignty. But, in a statement this afternoon, President Chen avoided saying whether Taiwan and China were separate and was silent on whether legislation should be adopted by Taiwan's legislature.
China conducted military exercises near its coast with Taiwan today, but Gen. Huang Suey-sheng said at the Taiwanese military's weekly briefing here this morning that the drills were consistent with the usual level of Chinese military activity at this time of year.
Taiwan's stock market tumbled 5.8 percent on Monday in response to tensions with China but dropped only another 1.4 percent today, less than the Tokyo or Hong Kong stock markets. President Chen's statement came out after the close of trading.
Translation problems between dialects of Chinese have complicated the fracas over President Chen's remarks on Saturday. President Chen delivered his speech in the local Taiwanese dialect - which is heavy on colloquialisms and can be hard to write in Chinese characters - and not in the more formal mandarin Chinese used by most mainland Chinese.

The president used a complex Taiwanese term for country in his speech that suggested China and Taiwan were fundamentally different groupings. Chen Ming-tong, the vice chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council, the ministry here that handles relations with the mainland, said today that there was still no consensus on how to translate the speech on Saturday into mandarin, much less into English.

[wretchard]

China should welcome the independence of Taiwan. Until then, the island will be a secure rear area for everything antithetical to totalitarian Communism. Beijing's desire to assimilate Taiwan is about as rational as an attempt by Havana to assimilate Miami. Better that they should go away.

The conquest of Taiwan, as opposed to its pure destruction by nuclear weapons, is beyond the capability of Beijing. The attempt would overstrain the PRC and likely implode it.

The President of Taiwan knows that it will take a lot more than a speech to start the mainland Chinese off across the strait.

[Free the USA]

.

[color_tear]

The President of Taiwan knows that it will take a lot more than a speech to start the mainland Chinese off across the strait.

Have your heard that CCP will ask all business people from Taiwan to declare their stand on this issue if Taiwan declares independence. (more than half million?)
So, if you declare yourself as Chinese then you stay but no more money back to Taiwan.
If you want to be a citizen of Republic of Taiwan then leave China with empty hands.

No single shot will be fired and Republic of Taiwan will be part of communist China in no time.

How many of those business people you think will declare themselves as citizen of Republic of Taiwan?

[wretchard]

Every year that passes takes Taiwan further from the mainland. Up until 10 years ago, the Kuomintang had a lock on power, and the Kuomintang's article of faith was "one China", but the other way around: they were the rightful government of the mainland, which they would one day recover. Now each succeeding generation drifts further and further away from the mainland. Can you see where things will finish up in 20 years? Do you think threats will work indefinitely?

You now have two generations of people who were born in Taiwan. Sure, China is an important market, but Taiwan does business all over the world. So China threatens: "If you want to be a citizen of Republic of Taiwan then leave China with empty hands." Well, would you give in to such a threat? If they can take your money now, they can take your money later, especially if you choose PRC citizenship.

Besides, China would take a really big financial loss if they carried out their threat. Why is Hong Kong allowed to carry on so? Because China needs Hong Kong for business. Why would cutting Taiwan off hurt less?

Note that the sort of threats you mention is tantamount to a confession by the mainland that they don't have the capability to invade Taiwan. They can't coerce the country, so they threaten individuals. Pitiful.

[color_tear]

To Survive, sir. Most of those business people will become PRC citizens because they want to survive. Yes, PRC can take their money away but nobody knows WHEN so why take the risk now.

Taiwan will not be able to survive without those business people in China. Not because of China's market, because factories setup by Taiwan's business people. Taiwan lost her ability to compete against China business wise.

My brother is in Taipei helping Taiwan's business people setup factories in China. That is the only way to survive, period. There are other countries in Asia one can go but for cultural background and manpower, China has the advantage.

China does not need Hongkong for business anymore. The new center is Shanghai.

You now have two generations of people who were born in Taiwan.That is why they are less sensitive to citizenship now. Look at the number of people from Taiwan in China and you'll understand.

[tallhappy]

No single shot will be fired and Republic of Taiwan will be part of communist China in no time.

The impression you give is that this is your goal.

Why? What happened to you?

[maui_hawaii]

link 1

link 2

Check out my posts in the above two links.

Taiwan might be setting up shop in Malaysia or Singapore, or Indonesia for their exports. With the free trade (mentioned in link 1) they will either move to Sinapore/Indonesia or their company will die and get beaten, or both.

[maui_hawaii]

see post #8

[maui_hawaii]

Here is another one.

link 3

[maui_hawaii]

What would China do? Try to corner the world market with 5 year old tech?

Chinese are also known to borrow technology.

On top of that, there is the whole military use, as well as the unfair trade, and huge deficit...

[AIG]

All the Taiwanese businesses that have moved to the mainland will never return. Taiwan's pooped out, and the mainland is where the economic action is going to be over the next several decades. Taiwan's best brains see the writing on the wall. Taiwan today already has trouble merely paying for its defense budgets due to the massive capital flight that has taken place in the past 2 years while Pres. Chen has been in office scaring away investors both with his independence talk and his extreme socialist economic policies. Taiwan is an export-based economy, but most of those exporters have either already moved to the mainland or have plans to eventually do so. Taiwan doesn't have much of domestic economy itself to fall back on, except for maybe farming and Asian boy bands.

[AIG]

Most of the consumer electronics Americans buy today is made in China. Those products are not "5 year old tech." Eventually, more and more cutting-edge tech manufacturing will migrate to China. It's inevitable.

[PhilDragoo]

Excellent three links at 8 and 10.

Interesting to hear bitching by American computer businessmen of hoops to jump through for China.

You cite hoopless venues sure to attract investment.

[maui_hawaii]

Hopefully things work out alright for the free trade with Singapore.

[wretchard]

Is it your honest assessment that China will remain a vibrant economic environment? While I am no expert, I knew a few people who were based in Hong Kong and things aren't what they used to be.

There are reports, whose credibility I have no direct way of judging, to the effect that China's banking system is house of cards, riddled with bad debts to state-owned companies.

I think I am on firmer ground in asserting that the Mainland does not have the military capability to invade Taiwan. Their most credible treat is mining the Taiwanese ports.

[color_tear]

The impression you give is that this is your goal.

This is not my goal at all. Just to know your enemy well so you can prepare. "zhi gi zhi pi bai zhan bai shen"

[AIG]

Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and other export-based economies in Asia are all suffering now because their exporters have merely shifted production to the mainland. China is a "giant sucking sound." This is a macro-economic type of thing, and any export-based economy in the region is going to suffer because of it. It doesn't matter if it was a rich, advanced economy to begin with. If it's an export-driven economy, it's vulnerable. It doesn't have anything to do really whether Hong Kong's government is competent or not. Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, etc. would all suffer anyway.

China's banking system has problems, but Moody's just announced today it gave China's sovereign debt a "Aaa" (very high) rating because, among other things, China is determined to pursue economic reforms in a pragmatic fashion no matter what. You hear all about Third World Republics like Brazil and Turkey getting IMF bailouts these days, but you don't hear China begging for any IMF bailout. China is changing over from a 100% communist to 100% capitalist banking system, which is not easy and takes time but which China is pursuing effectively. By defintion, any communist banking system is unhealthy because it makes loans based on non-economic considerations such as it must support state-owned industries and their employees even if those workers are not really needed from a business point of view. But now, China is starting to lay off its state-sector workers, so China's banks don't have to loan as much money to the state-sector and can start loaning more to true private enterprises. In other words, China's banking system is transforming from a communist system where it makes loans based on non-economic considerations to a capitalist system where it makes loans based on true economic considerations. China just can't lay off workers too quickly, though, lest it risk social instability, but be assurred it is laying of workers which is why you hear of labor unrest sometimes. But as redundant workers get laid off, state-owned industries get healthier and more efficient and China's banking system gets healthier too.

[AIG]

Taiwan's economic integration with the mainland is an increasing fact of life. A war is actually not necessary if these trends continue.

[AIG]

China's already had 20 years of the fastest growth in world history. China's growth over this period was actually faster than Japan's, Korea's, Taiwan's, and Singapore's during their heyday. China is still in the early, steep part of its growth curve. China today is like where the US or Japan was in 1970. There will be bumps along the way, but China is still a long way off from hitting a saturation point. Per-capita GDP is a good measure to track. China's is $1,000 vs. $10,000-$35,000 for Japan, Korea, etc. China's still got a lot of room to rise.