Support builds for first strike

Washington Times ^ | 8/04/02 | Joseph Curl

[kattracks]

A political drumbeat is building from the Pentagon to Capitol Hill in support of a pre-emptive military strike against Iraq, but Bush administration officials are split on how to proceed and on whether Congress must first approve an attack.

While Bush officials have assured key lawmakers no U.S. attack on Iraq will occur before the November elections, the issue has moved center stage as the administration seeks to establish a link between Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden's terrorist group, al Qaeda.

[The Great Satan]

Over the next few months, Saddam Hussein's authorship of 9-11 will be incrementally foregrounded into public consciousness. The process started two days ago, when the White House confirmed for the first time that 9-11 operational commander Mohammed Atta flew to Prague last year to meet with an Iraqi intelligence agent. This is, of course, something that George Bush has known since last September, but the time is nearing when we are ready to move, so now we are going to hear about. And the White House has promised we will be hearing more about it.

Over the same time period, the long-running stall over the origin and significance of the anthrax letters will also be gradually phased down. An important step was taken a few days ago, with the highly-publicized due-diligence search of biodefense scientist Steven J. Hatfill. The mythology of the renegade CIA contractor, which has served as a useful distraction for the last several months, has assumed a life of its own, especially in the European media, and the air will have to be cleared before the truth can be told. But not just yet.

The United States political leadership understands perfectly well that Saddam Hussein has no intention of going quietly into the good night, and would never have dared to pull off something as daring as 9-11, even behind the veil of terrorism, without a truly terrible deterrent to back it up.

THIS IS NEXT
WE HAVE THIS ANTHRAX
YOU CAN NOT STOP US
ARE YOU AFRAID?

The US government is taking what steps it can to protect the citizenry from Saddam Hussein's doomsday weapons. It has ordered 100 million doses of Cipro, 25 million doses of a brand-new anthrax vaccine, and 300 million doses of smallpox vaccine. But it will be 6-18 months before these supplies are on line. Further, having the supplies and being able to deliver them in a timely fashion are two very different propositions. Then again, Saddam would always have the option of revenging himself on a softer target, such as one of our allies. Wherever there are muslims, there are potential human missiles to deliver his biological WMD. Finally, it is perfectly possible that there are weapons in Saddam's arsenal against which we have no possible defense, such as genetically-engineered smallpox. The long and the short of it is, if Saddam doesn't want to die, he can probably raise the stakes high enough that we can't touch him.

So, what to do? What cards to we have in our favor, now that Saddam has the initiative, with the destruction of the Trade Center and the subsequent anthrax threats? Well, Saddam Hussein is not a popular guy. His megalomania has already brought immense suffering to his own country. A resourceful thug, he has maintained power by establishing a robust system of carrots and sticks. Nevertheless, his life is as paranoiac as the most despised Roman emporaer, with food tasters, constant shuttling between bunkers, and frequent coup attempts. So, once Bush makes clear to the world the real state of play with respect to Saddam, 9-11, and the anthrax, the pressure to remove Saddam will be immense. (BTW, when you see that coming, get out of the market, because it's going into the dumpster for the duration.)

Nobody wants to die for Saddam Hussein. Nobody in Baghdad wants their city to end up like Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Saddam won't last long in that pressure cooker, and it is unlikely that the US will have to lay a finger on Iraq militarily to complete the goal of regime change. That will be the easy part, once this thing swings into high gear. The hard part will be ensuring that, when he goes, he doesn't take most of our Eastern Seaboard cities with him (all those subways, just perfect for distributing anthrax!). I'll wager that Saddam will not die in the coming conflict. Worst case, he'll be placed under house arrest for the rest of his life. His two crazy sons will be his constant companions, which should be a fitting punishment. But we ain't gonna kill him, not knowing if he's bluffing, or has four aces up his sleeve. No way.

All this was mapped out ten months ago. If you've been paying close attention you should have figured it all out by now. I invite you to bookmark this thread, and check back in a year to see how my predictions turned out.

[The Great Satan]

for discussion

[kattracks]

Baghdad called easy foe

[The Great Satan]

I agree. Even if we do have to go in militarily to support a coup, by the time that happens, people will be cheering us in the streets. Not just because Saddam's army is in a shambles and the people hate him and because it will mean the end of sanctions, although all those things are true. It will also be because, by that time, everybody is going to understand what Saddam's role in 9-11 was and what he's threatening to do if we try to bring him to account for it, and they will understand that as long as Saddam Hussein rules, a Sword of Damocles hangs over every Iraqis' head.

[kattracks]

...as long as Saddam Hussein rules, a Sword of Damocles hangs over every Iraqis' head.

And, were he to get the bomb, over the heads of every neighboring state.

[Mitchell]

I generally agree with your assessment. I'll add a couple of points.

-----------------

There is a new, seemingly technical, but very important report. An August 3, 2002, Washington Post article hints that there are small genetic differences between the anthrax mailed to Sen. Leahy and the anthrax mailed to AMI in Florida. (It's the Washington Post, so I won't post a quotation -- click on the link, search for Leahy, and read that paragraph and the following paragraph.)

Why is this important? Because it suggests that someone somewhere has cultured large vats of anthrax over substantial periods of time (otherwise genetic variation is unlikely to have emerged). This is very unlikely to have been the result of a lone domestic terrorist; the time required makes it impossible to do this through surreptitious use of a domestic lab, and it also is very unlikely that somebody could have maintained an in-home lab for that period of time, without any instances of contamination -- and without being discovered at all.

You may recall the differential symptomatology associated with the different mailings that I pointed out some time ago. The Washington Post article hints at confirmation of what I suspected at the time, that there is a genetic basis for at least some of the observed differences.

So the likely conclusion is that the anthrax was developed abroad, with state sponsorship, and the biowarfare program underlying it is substantial and long-standing.

This report is in line with the growing acknowledgment of the Prague meeting; the ducks are being placed in a row.

-----------------

Switching gears, there is one thing that I find curious in terms of the geopolitical analysis of the situation. What is the role of Pakistan (or Pakistanis) in this affair? While pointing to Iraq makes logical sense, virtually all the people detained in connection with the anthrax mailings were Pakistani, and Pakistani nuclear scientists are known to have been discussing anthrax bombs and the like. (And, for that matter, how does al-Qaeda, or radical Islam in general, fit in? But Pakistan is the key question.)

[Mitchell]

One more thing: Overthrowing Saddam Hussein won't get rid of the anthrax, nor will the knowledge of how to weaponize it disappear. The genie is out of the bottle. The world balance of power will change dramatically, even without Saddam Hussein around.

Yes, the world will be better without Saddam than with him, and I fully support the actions necessary to overthrow him. But the fundamental issue is that we're looking at technological changes which are leading to increasingly inexpensive weapons of mass destruction. In the long run, this is a much trickier problem to deal with than one madman.

[dennisw]

If we don't move before November elections then this strike on Iraq will never happen. The Dems are poised to take control of the House and grow larger in the Senate. Due to the economy mostly. 

The entire move doesn't have to take place. But the ariel assault must begin before the elections. While Iraq (Baghdad really) reels back, dazed and confused, the troop build up will occur at a very rapid pace to our nearby Central Asian bases. We are already pre-positioning equipment. We will knock out Baghdad water and electric. Kill their radio, TV, telephone and communications. Same for other large cities. We will do a Yugo on them.
Iraqi commanders will be warned that will be tried as war criminals if they launch chem. and bio. Iraqi army will run chickens**t except for their most elite men.
Muslims talk big but at the end of the day they will fear, respect and obey the brand new alpha dog.

Our depressed airlines will be happy to lease their jets for troop transport.
Total troops needed? 30,000 to 50,000. With many others on instant standby stateside.

[Nogbad]

Because it suggests that someone somewhere has cultured large vats of anthrax
over substantial periods of time
(otherwise genetic variation is unlikely to have emerged).

Possibly. But a few weeks back Keri suggested
that they are beginning to believe
that anthrax may mutate more rapidly
than previously was thought.

In any case, there has been little doubt in my mind
for a long time now,
that the anthrax was not made in the USA.

The very notion seems absurd.

[mewzilla]

Hasn't that Hatfill guy been under close surveillance? If he were the person responsible for this, wouldn't the Feds have caught him at it by now?

[Sabertooth]

Switching gears, there is one thing that I find curious in terms of the geopolitical analysis of the situation. What is the role of Pakistan (or Pakistanis) in this affair?

Yeah, I was noticing that last Fall as well. Pakistan's ISI was shoulder to shoulder with the Taliban, so there's your Al Qaeda link. Also, their sundry Jammat fronts have cels and mosques all over the place.

And I've also never forgotten about the Pakistani kid who predicted the attack on the WTC the week before 9/11...

In Brooklyn, a high school freshman who recently immigrated from Pakistan was investigated by federal agents after his teacher reported that he had predicted the Trade Center's collapse a week before the towers were attacked.

The student pointed out a third-story window of New Utrecht High School toward the Trade Center and said, "Do you see those two buildings? They won't be standing there next week," according to three police sources and a city official familiar with the investigation. They said the comment came in the midst of a heated political discussion the student was having with his teacher in an English class for Arab-American students...

Federal agents who visited the New Utrecht school questioned the student and his older brother, who also attends there, the sources said. Afterward, the agents tried to question their father, who chastised them for harassing his children, they said.

Police sources said that, after the interviews, the boy's father left for Pakistan. After his departure, investigators conducted a second interview with the boy and his mother, who told them that her son was having psychological problems.
LINK

Anyone ever hear any follow-up on that story?

[palmer]

I invite you to bookmark this thread, and check back in a year to see how my predictions turned out

Done. I can't see even a tenth of what you are postulating. There is a much simpler explanation for 9/11: a loosely organized group of fanatics carries out an unanticipated attack. Total cost: living costs plus flight training. Total communication required: "Here's the plan...", "Are you ready?", "We'll do it next Tuesday".

I think the anthrax was more complicated and find it hard to believe the rogue scientist theory. On the other hand, I don't think it required state sponsorship.

[Mr. Mojo]

Bump for truth

[EternalHope]

I think the anthrax was more complicated and find it hard to believe the rogue scientist theory. On the other hand, I don't think it required state sponsorship.

Yes, you can grow anthrax easily. But that is not the same thing as converting anthrax goo into a weapon.

To be a weapon the anthrax must be easily dispersed in the air, and the particles must be small enough to get deep into the lungs. Anything less will not be an effective weapon.

To convert the goo into a very fine powder that does not stick together is very difficult. Making small particles is difficult, and coating or otherwise treating them to eliminate static cling is even harder. You cannot do this in a bathtub.

Some of the anthrax used against us was "very high grade", meaning the particles were very small and treated to eliminate static cling. They could have been dispersed in the air very easily.

Very few nations have the capability to make the stuff that was used against us. Russia and Iraq are on the list, but few others. NO ONE could have done it in a bathtub.

The above info is in the public domain, but usually overlooked by our news media. When the Bush admin decides the time is right, I expect to see this info start to "leak" out.

[Mitchell]

Possibly. But a few weeks back Keri suggested that they are beginning to believe that anthrax may mutate more rapidly than previously was thought.

Yes, that could be correct. But it's still hard to imagine rapid mutation while in the spore state. And the existence of genetic variation among the samples almost certainly would eliminate the idea that somebody simply stole a sample, doled it out into the envelopes, and mailed them out. In any case, Keim's earlier work showed anthrax to be among the most genetically stable organisms ever studied.

[Nogbad]

And the existence of genetic variation among the samples
almost certainly would eliminate the idea that somebody simply stole a sample,
doled it out into the envelopes, and mailed them out.

I think that possibility was discounted by serious people months ago.
As I have previously argued, genetic analysis is not necessary to establish that.

[Mitchell]

I agree, but more evidence pointing in the same direction is helpful in confirming that one is on the right track.

[muawiyah]

So far there are absolutely NO individuals from Pakistan or anywhere else who have been proven to be instrumental in the Anthrax Attack.

There are certainly allegations, and those involved Paks, but investitation of those folks yielded nothing.

On the other hand, the thesis that has AlQeada itself mounting the attacks involves no people beyond those who were in the airplanes who are now dead and most of them are Saudis.

If you follow the hypothesis of the lunatic fringe of the left (and the FBI) that it was some white guy that did it, then there would probably not be any Paks anywhere around it.

My favorite at the moment has the lunatic left in its guise as YPSL conspiring with AlQeada to "deliver the goods", those "goods" having been cooked up in an Ivy League laboratory.

Remember, YPSL still carries a grudge against the Postal Service for so many of its members having been fired at the New York Bulk and Foreign Mail Facility. Postmaster General Bolger had to be provided with round the clock body guards. YPSL operatives had announced their intention to murder him!

After 30 years assume some of these people have gravitated into higher level leadership positions in a variety of left-wing organizations - particularly those dedicated to the "hate America first" campaign!

Worst of all, people who were "anti-war" in the 60/70 period, who also had a "soft" attitude toward leftwing organizations like YPSL, have actually climbed their way into the higher reaches of USPS management and cannot be trusted to encourage the FBI and the Postal Inspection Service to investigate their "friends".

[Ordinary_American]

Your theory is the mirror image of Barbara Hatch Rosenberg's conspiracy theory. She has claimed that the FBI knows who the perpetrator is and is stalling or covering up because the government is too embarrassed to admit that its personnel are involved in the anthrax mailings. You say that the FBI knows who the perpetrator is and is stalling or covering up because the government is too embarrassed to admit it is being blackmailed by Saddam Hussein's WMD. Your unremarkable theory doesn't hold water for at least two reasons. First, a theory is no longer a theory when everybody knows it. Even Joe Biden says: "The real value that such weapons have for Saddam, Biden suggested, is their deterrent effect — that they would protect him from being attacked by the United States." Second, Steven Hatfill, who is taking a public beating, would have to be in on the ruse, or the Feds would be leaving themselves open for lawsuits and perhaps criminal action after the ruse has been revealed. Of course, if the ruse is never revealed, we will never know and that is the beauty of conspiracy theories.