[Tokhtamish]

Beckman missed his calling. He should have been writing screenplays in the '40s.

The housing market is borne ever higher by expectations of it going ever higher. But once the consumer loses his optimism that next quarter things will be OK, once the employed consumer starts to worry about his own job, once he hears more and more horror stories about middle aged professionals destituted after nearly a year of unemployment being reduced to the jobs of 19 year olds, he pulls back.

And there are always houses that have to be sold at whatever price they can fetch. People die, people move, people get divorced. Once the price of these houses drops the entire housing market crashes.

I believe this article. I have been expecting housing prices to crash for nearly two years now.

[lelio]

What worries me is that around here small 1/4 acre plots with tiny houses on them are going for $150-175k, up from $120-150k 3 years ago. Okay so you sell and the guy buying it expects to get $200k in 3 years. Then $250k 6 years from now.
Who in their right might is buying a small one bedroom house for that? They'll probably knock it down (price to demo it $30k) and build a new house for around $80k. So we're up to $350k for a new house that's still on a 1/4 acre. Its going to get insane.