The greatest strategic deception since Eisenhower-Hitler-Pas de Calais

Jewish World Review ^ | August 1, 2002 | Jack Kelly

[SJackson]

The greatest strategic deception since Eisenhower convinced Hitler the Allies were going to land at the Pas de Calais?

We may find out soon whether all this talk of invading Iraq has been part of the greatest strategic deception since Eisenhower convinced Hitler the Allies were going to land at the Pas de Calais.

Rumors of war have been rife in the news media of late, and they've been contradictory. On July 5, the New York Times published a front page story on a ground heavy invasion plan for Iraq. On July 29, the Times had another, very different, invasion plan - this one involving a quick strike on Baghdad - on its front page.

Meanwhile, the British press has been reporting both a "rift" between Prime Minister Tony Blair and President Bush about invading Iraq, and that Blair has presented to Parliament the case for taking part in a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. The London Evening Standard and Pravda report that U.S. and British special forces already are staging in countries surrounding Iraq. A "massive assault" could be likely at short notice, said the London Observer. But unidentified congressional sources say unidentified administration officials told them there will be no invasion before next year.

Confused? That may be the point. Not to confuse you, but to confuse Saddam. If he does not know when and how we will strike, he will be less able to defend himself. And if Saddam isn't quite sure whether we will strike, his guard might slip a bit. That a lot of journalists may wind up with egg on their faces is lagniappe.

The first thing to note about the conflicting war plans reported in the New York Times is that both could be true, and neither deserved the play the Times gave them. The Times breathlessly implies these are THE plans, when in all likelihood they are just a couple of dozens of contingencies prepared by mid-level military bureaucrats. The real plans, if they've been formulated, will be very close hold. It should not be difficult for the Air Force's Office of Special Investigations, to whom Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has assigned the responsibility of finding the leakers, if Rumsfeld really wants them found.

The second is that there are two powerful physical constraints on the timing of an attack on Iraq. The Kosovo and Afghan wars drained our supply of JDAMs, the satellite guidance system that makes dumb bombs smart. It would be imprudent to initiate hostilities until the supply has been replenished.

The other constraint is weather. Saddam is all but certain to use chemical and biological weapons against U.S. troops. It's too hot in Iraq in the summer and early fall to be running around in chemical protective suits.

Instability in Saudi Arabia and instability in Iran could affect the timing and nature of war plans for Iraq. Three Saudi princes had died recently under mysterious circumstances. Canada's National Post reported July 31 what the London Observer had reported earlier, that extremists linked to al Qaeda are plotting a coup against the Saudi royal family. The trigger for a coup attempt could be the death of Saudi King Fahd, who is wasting away in a Swiss hospital.

Instability in Iran could provide a sudden opportunity. The country is on the brink of civil war. Anti-regime protests have become more bold, and the mullahs are cracking down hard. They've had to import Muslim extremists from other lands to do much of the dirty work, because of doubts about the loyalty to the regime of large elements of the army and the police.

There is a fair possibility Iran, not Iraq, will be the next target in the war on terror.

....snip....

The U.S. wouldn't attack Iran out of the blue. But U.S. intervention in support of a popular uprising could be in the cards. Iran ahead of Iraq. That would be a strategic deception to rival the phantom "First Patton Army" of WWII.

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[snopercod]

2. Southern U.S. unexpected bonus: an unexpected bonus or extra

Y'all talk like that around this part of the South, and we'd thank you were wunna' them commie, tree-hugging, brie nibbling, chardonnay-sipping yankees.

[GSWarrior]

Pronunciation is lan-yap

[CIB-173RDABN]

This guy has hit the nail right on the head. Until the weather cooperates (i.e. winter in the Northern Hemisphere), and until we have replaced the weapons wasted ...

Even if true, you win wars by doing the unexpected. I believe we will attack Iraq between now and the end of September.

[PhilDragoo]

Production up at U.S. weapons makers
Memo to Saddam: Rosie the Riveter Gonna Git Yo Gonads
Copyright © 2002 AP Online

By MATT KELLEY, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (July 16, 2002 12:52 a.m. EDT) - U.S. weapons makers have doubled the production rate of laser-guided bombs, added a shift to assemble satellite-guided bomb tailkits and boosted output at one ammunition factory to its highest level in 15 years.

Some of the ordnance will replace weapons used in the war in Afghanistan, but analysts say another reason for the buildup is to stockpile weapons for possible military action against Iraq.

President Bush has said he wants to see Saddam Hussein removed from power, accusing the Iraqi leader of hoarding chemical and biological weapons and seeking nuclear bombs. Bush and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld say they have no immediate plans to go to war against Iraq, however.

"The job of Central Command is to be prepared for that Iraq contingency, and that plan is probably pretty well in development," said retired Rear Adm. Stephen Baker, a former naval operations director for Central Command.

"One thing they need to do is bring the stockpiles up, particularly of the laser-guided bombs and JDAMs and Tomahawk missiles."

JDAM stands for Joint Direct Attack Munition, the satellite-guided bomb that has been a favorite U.S. weapon in the war in Afghanistan. Military planners love the JDAM for its pinpoint accuracy and relatively low cost of less than $25,000 each.

About 9,000 new JDAMs have been built this year, compared with about 10,000 total by the end of last year. Analysts have estimated that more than half of the first 10,000 JDAMs were used in Afghanistan and even more would be needed for an attack on Iraq.

The military still has only a fraction of the 40,000 to 50,000 JDAMs it wants, said analyst John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org.

"They had obviously used up a significant fraction of what was on hand, and what was on hand a year ago was only a small fraction of what they want to have on hand," Pike said.

Precision weapons like JDAMs would be key to any attack on Iraq, since they would allow the United States to focus its firepower on Saddam's military infrastructure while minimizing civilian casualties. The accurate weapons also allow the same number of planes to hit more targets in less time.

Pike said one Navy admiral has credited the JDAM with increasing the lethality of an aircraft carrier fivefold.

"It's only when you start thinking about that quantum leap in air power lethality that it starts to become plausible that you could take military action against Iraq without having a massive, multimonth (troop) buildup like they had a decade ago," Pike said.

A Boeing Co. factory in St. Charles, Mo., assembles the JDAM kits, which fit over the tail of 1,000-pound or 2,000-pound "dumb" bombs to turn them into satellite-guided weapons.

Earlier this year, the factory added a second shift of workers to increase production from about 1,000 kits per month to 1,500, said Boeing spokesman Robert Algarotti. The company plans to boost production even further, to 2,000 per month by the end of the year and 2,800 per month by the middle of 2003.

Those rates would add another 20,000 or more JDAMs to the U.S. arsenal within a year and about 37,000 by the end of 2003. At the highest rate, Boeing could make enough JDAMs to fill out the 40,000 stockpile in about 14 months.

Raytheon Co. makes laser-guided bombs at a factory in Tucson, Ariz. That factory has added a partial third shift, doubled its production rate and is delivering the laser-guided bombs five months ahead of schedule, Raytheon spokeswoman Sara Hammond said.

Citing competitive reasons, Hammond declined to discuss the precise number and rates of laser-guided bombs being made.

The United States has tens of thousands of laser-guided bombs on hand, so the need for them is not as critical. Still, up to several thousand have been used in Afghanistan and thousands would be used in any attack on Iraq.

Pike said the military had enough laser-guided bombs and must simply replace those used.

"With the JDAM, they didn't have nearly as much as they wanted and used up much of what they had," he said. "So they have to not only replace what was used but significantly increase the total number."

Raytheon's Tucson operation also makes the Tomahawk missile, another precision weapon launched from Navy ships and submarines. The United States used dozens of the missiles in the war in Afghanistan and during the 1991 Persian Gulf War to drive Iraq out of Kuwait.

While Raytheon does not have a contract to make more Tomahawks, it has sped up the process of upgrading older missiles, Hammond said. The company recently finished upgrading 644 of the missiles six months ahead of schedule, she said.

At the Lake City Army Ammunition Plant in Independence, Mo., production is at its highest rate in 15 years - higher than during the Gulf War. The plant recently got a $92 million contract to make 265 million rounds of small-caliber ammunition for the Army.

Some of that will be used for increased training and some will go into the Army's regular ammunition stockpile, said Karen Engelbret, a spokeswoman for Lake City plant owner Alliant Techsystems.

Rosie knows Saddam searches these open sources for updates, and wanted him to know she and Lorena have been busily perfecting the Saddam-Bobbitt-Bomblet, a penis-homing weapon.

[section9]

Actually, I strongly suspect that the JDAM supplies are almost, if not already at, wartime strength.

LGB's have also been brought back up to strength. Naval builds and supplies are open to the fleet like a fire hydrant on full blast.

I strongly suspect that we are nearly ready to go, or will be by September. I agree with Kelly in that full dress infantry/armor/artillery operations will not begin until late November. However, I suspect that a large scale campaign of sabotage backed up by airpower will begin in October. The Boeing JDAM plant is going three shifts, 24/7, to fill the DOD orders. Other supply plants are going at full steam as well.

Certain decisions have already been made. However, it should be pointed out that Iran is not in our planning right now. We'll simply ride that wave and be around when the Ayahtollahs are overthrown to establish friendly relations with the New Regime.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[lilburne]

I don't know about the extermination camps, perhaps you could tell us more about it. I have seen maps of where the V2's actually fell, and the maps the Germans had of where they thought they had landed, based on 'their' agents reports. The German maps show the V2's clustered around the East End, The home office maps show them falling in the 'burbs. The 'agent' reports that MI5 forwarded were statistically skewed to redirect German targeting. Churchill was not amused and said that they should not get involved with the aiming of bombs. MI5 appear to have disregarded the instruction.

To maintain the deception they also got one of the Agents a certain 'Garbo' to start radioing his control in Madrid at 3am on 6th June 1944 a warning that the Normandy Landing were underway. He eventually got through at 0608 hours, far too late, of course, for the information to be of any use the German High Command.

[VaBthang4]

Pretty interesting scenario...Iran first then Iraq....and it has been thrown around here on FR before.

If a cogent uprising does manifest inside of Iran and it is successful...I dont doubt seeing us send Troops into Iran if they are requested by the upstarts.

It would make life easier...

[Inkie]

Ditto. I thought I was the only one thinking this. LOOSE LIPS SINK SHIPS. If the NYT had had the same editorial policy during WW2, Hitler would have known all about D-Day well in advance. The entire American population, knowledgeable or not, would be enveigled into public debate, the ACLU would weigh on on the rights of the German people, and the Axis would have won the war while the NYT was still editorializing on how costly the invasion would be (and therefore, we should think twice about it because -- hey, after all -- we can live with Hitler as long as gas prices stay cheap). These despicable so-called journalists should be tried for treason.

[Shooter 2.5]

I don't think anyone remembers me posting this, but what we seem to be doing is calling up our enemy and telling him over the phone that we'll be right over to kick his @ss.
We don't want to invade. We want the Iraqi people to overthrow their dictator so that thousands of their people won't die.

[First_Salute]

Try also:

Timing is everything.

It's great when fate intervenes to make you look good.

Operation [more Bush running 75% of the Clinton Administration] Stealth

[SamAdams76]

Even though it was the British and not Eisenhower who fooled the Germans, I think the United States pulled off the greatest intelligence coup of WW2 in the battle of Midway, culminating in that brilliant transmission of a "water problem at AF (Midway)" that proved that the Japanese were planning to invade Midway. During that battle, we sank nearly their entire carrier fleet and the Japanese never recovered. It was probably the most important battle of the entire war for it allowed the U.S. to focus their war efforts on Germany. If not for Midway, D-Day might have been pushed back several more years.

[El Gato]

Sounds like "W", Cheney, and Rummy knew exactly how to spend the money they got after 9-11. I hope some of that small arms ammo is pistol ammunition, of which there was a tremendous shortage during the time of old "I loathe the Military". Only those deploying, and not even all of those, got ammunition to qualify, let alone practice.

I also hope very little of that small arms stuff gets used up, then it will appear on the surplus market in few years, so I can shoot some of it up. :)

[Arleigh]

I also hope very little of that small arms stuff gets used up, then it will appear on the surplus market in few years, so I can shoot some of it up. :)

Yup. Would it be too much to ask for some nice, cheap, fresh surplus 7.62 NATO?

[Hugin]

I tend to agree with you. I think we will attack Iraq suddenly, and before anybody expects it. It was reported within the last week that we now have finished construction of a second US military base in Kuwait, this one in the south. If Bush's team are as smart as I think they are the first word will be reports from Iraq of bombing followed by Bush going on TV to announce the attack.

As far as the weather goes, most of the fighting in the desert will be done in vehicles that are both NBC proof and air conditioned. Anyway chemical weapons only as effective as their delivery systems. That would mostly be artillery, and without obeservers the Iraqis would have to rely on pure luck. And with American counter battery technology they would have to be lucky to get off a second shot.

[SJackson]

I don't think anyone remembers me posting this, but what we seem to be doing is calling up our enemy and telling him over the phone that we'll be right over to kick his @ss. We don't want to invade. We want the Iraqi people to overthrow their dictator so that thousands of their people won't die.

I suspect it won't be the Iraqi people, but a military cabal, which works. The people could do it in Iran. That could well be the idea, since I don't see the preparations for a ground war, particularly one where we could be fighting both Iraq and Iran. I question whether it's smart to depend on that, but maybe we have a year to waste.

[Mr. Jazzy]

Whatever operations they have in mind for Sadam, they had better take an angry Iran into account. Even though the Shite's and Sunnis just barely tolerate each other, they combined hate Isreal and the U.S. even more. The myth of the reasonable Iranian Mullah that is being put forth by several Washinton think tanks, is just that, a myth. Sadam wants to be Salidin and unite the Arab (and Persian!) world under him. Isreal is once again, the key.

[SJackson]

Whatever operations they have in mind for Sadam, they had better take an angry Iran into account. Even though the Shite's and Sunnis just barely tolerate each other, they combined hate Isreal and the U.S. even more. The myth of the reasonable Iranian Mullah that is being put forth by several Washinton think tanks, is just that, a myth. Sadam wants to be Salidin and unite the Arab (and Persian!) world under him. Isreal is once again, the key.

I completely agree, we have to assume we will be facing them both. Not only for the "enemy of my enemy" rationale, but more importantly, if we are to believe the reports that the mullahs are losing control in Iran, a war against the "great satan" would be just what they need to rally the masses, which despite unrest will probably rally to an anti-American cause. It's possible you might have to stir Syria into the mix.

I don't see us preparing for an undertaking of this magnitude.

Israel, not the key, but a decisive ally if we ask.

[Barnacle]