No one has yet defined human Consciousness in any real sense. No one has yet demonstrated that Consciousness is a phenomenon of electrochemical computational processes in the brain. No one has yet demonstrated that it is possible to emulate these electrochemical processes digitally. Therefore, any speculation about creating "artificial brains" that can emulate the human brain -- let alone become Conscious -- belongs to the realm of science fiction.
Dr. Vinge and his disciples assume that human Consciousness is a material process that can be perfectly modeled in a computer -- a big assumption considering no one has the foggiest notion of what Consciousness really is. The Singularity faith proceeds from the naturalistic assumption that a Person is nothing more than a stack of electrified meat -- a biological robot -- that ultimately consists of nothing more than atoms and energy.
Obviously, I disagree. Computing power is not the same as thought. A human being is more than mere electrified meat. We have something in us that can't be simulated by a computer, no matter how sophisticated.
Lacking a definition of Mind, the prospects of creating an artificial Mind are extremely slim.
Well, not entirely—I support what these guys are doing, and I'm a dyed-in-the-wool dualist. If the brain creates Mind as the monists think, then certainly AI is possible. If the brain merely hosts Mind, as I and (presumably) you think, then I don't see why in principle we cannot create a computer that is also capable of hosting Mind. It is no more remarkable for a soul to incarnate in a network of simulated neurons than in a network of actual neurons.
Yes, AI researchers are almost uniformly monists whose worldview I reject foursquare. However, that doesn't mean they're all on the wrong track. Any "top down" approach—coming up with some theory of "how consciousness works" and creating a device to simulate that theory—is doomed to failure, but the "bottom up" approach described here—creating a machine indistinguishable from the human brain and seeing what happens—is very promising. If such a device worked, it would revolutionize the material world but leave metaphysics fairly untouched, since it would still be impossible to tell whether the device was creating or hosting a Mind. If the device failed, on the other hand, monism would be dealt a deadly blow. I find either prospect extremely interesting and worthy of support.
I've never seen electrified meat.
But I have seen poultry in motion.