China: From mismanagement to collapse

Rediff.com ^ | July 29, 2002 | Rajeev Srinivasan

[USMMA_83]

I wonder what Jeff Head would think about this "analysis".

[nevergore]

The fundemental and endemic structural problems for China's growth and prosperity are similar to Japan's just prior to WWII. These problems facilitated Japan's decision to expand throughout SE Asia and at the time, Japan regarded the US as it's major impediment to expansion, thus, they attacked Pearl Harbor to prevent our Pacific Fleet from blocking their expansionist goals.
China is now in the same position.
Hopefully, we have not been lulled into the same false sense of security by our "friends".......
NeverGore

[Nov3]

A totalitarian regime even broke and in chaos can in times of war do amazing things. To loosely quote a Chinese General in response to MacArthur's threat to nuke the troop marshalling points in China during Korea, "So you kill a million or two"

[Aaron_A]

I wonder what Jeff Head would think about this "analysis".

Lets find out....

[demlosers]

yes, we need Jeff head's unique perspective -- pinging... pinging.... ;-)

[alloysteel]

China about to collapse economically? Why? Favorable trade balance, strong recent advances in technology (either simply GIVEN to them, or stolen through reverse-engineering and sold as pirate copies), relatively little unrest in their homeland (except for a few dissidents, largely kept under control by the local Posse Comitatus), and a BIG influx of Western capital, how could they fail?

This is just a wordy treatise to lull us into believing China could not engage nor long prosecute military engagements with potential antagonists.

[sauropod]

China is doing an unprecedented arms buildup. And they believe that they will be at war w/ us by 2015 or 2025. See Michael Pillsbury's "China and its future" available thru the GPO.

[Red Jones]

possibly the Indian author is engaging in wishful thinking; China may have problems, but they're not going to collapse.

[Free the USA]

Index Bump

[Jeff Head]

Without our help ... meaning our manufacturing plants, our technology, the flooding of our markets with their very cheaply produced (translated into dirt poor labor policies we would neve countenance here) ... they would go bankrupt. Just like every other marxist/communist/maoist based regime.

The Chicomms are still in control ... they have just found a new place to fleace and its us. They will continue to do so until they reach what they percieve to be critical mass ... a point here they believe they can continue to produce, continue to export, continue to grow without the need of our "ownership". Then I am afraid many companies will find that there investment in the PRC was truly risk capital.

They are building their military as fast as they can against that day. When it comes, they will attempt (IMHO) to evict us from the region entirely.

If we were to "engage" then right now as Reagan engaged the Soviets ... we could forestall and prevent this IMHO.

Otherwise, I am afraid e are one day going to look at DRAGON'S FURY

FRegards.

[Aaron_A]

When it comes to Chinese finances, here are a few things that I believe will be of importance:

- money losing state enterprises, bad loans and subsidies.
- money funneled into the country by ex-pats, Hong Kong, Taiwanese, Japan, etc. This counts as foreign direct investment but is in some cases money that was initially taken out or money used by Asians to move manufacturing into China. Eventually this money will slow down.
- money raised in North America/EU. You mutual funds probably hold potentially worthless equity of debt, re-packaged by financial institutions to "eliminate" the risk, the proceeds of which went to China.
- current account surplus (I am assuming they are in surplus).
- military technology. We usually hear about them buying stuff from the Russians, but there is a huge market for Chinese (copies) weapons in Pakistan, North Korea, Burma, Bangladesh, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, and many other third world countries.

[Jeff Head]

Great points, and I agree. There are many ways we can still hurt them and drive them to reform (the PRC leadership) if we just had the will. At the same time, if allowed to go on too long, those same "ways" will work against us when the Chicomms turn off the spicket later.

BTW, here's a good link for the post above ... my bad on the typo.

DRAGON'S FURY

[AIG]

Is this why India's debt is currently rated at junk status?

[shaggy eel]

ping

[AIG]

As we speak, "China fever" has taken hold over India's business community. India's businesses are starting to invest in droves into China -- even more than in India itself in some cases. This has caused some Indians to freak out, but they should try to relax.

[shaggy eel]

ping

[AIG]

Democracy is great in theory, but all of today's Third World democracies are dysfunctional jokes. Democracy, for whatever reason, doesn't seem to work very well in countries with majority-poor populations. Such populations inevitably elect socialistic politicians who, of course, oppose capitalist reforms, raise taxes, support big government, and scare away foreign investors. Despite 50 years of democracy, India has yet to implement basic labor and land reforms that allow companies to hire and fire workers and buy and sell land when they want to. In addition, the inherent legislative gridlock of the democratic legislative process needlessly delays such capitalist reforms even further (and further motivates foreign investors to invest in China). The result is generation after generation of poor people in India and every other Third World democracy. On the other hand, one-party rule in most of E. Asia helped them implement capitalist reforms quickly, develop majority middle-class populations relatively quickly, and achieve modern, First World living standards quickly. Honestly, I can't think of a single Third World democracy today which isn't a mess. Democratic Latin America seems to be imploding as we speak due to politicians who talk too much but never act. Then, there's democratic Turkey, Indonesia, S. Africa, Russia, and India. Eastern Europe is actually voting to put the communists back into office! For a democracy not to be a joke, it needs to develop a middle-class first, and the best way to develop a middle-class in Third World countries is pro-capitalist, authoritarian rule. 18th century Europe saw pro-capitalist, authoritarian rulers in the so-called "enlightened despots" who codified the laws and made other reforms which allowed capitalism to flourish and a middle-class to grow. America's and France's middle classes (bourgeoisie) led their respective Revolutions and ushered in the era of modern democracy.

[batter]

Thanks for the post. Don't worry about AIG, s/he's on "brocken record status" - check out AIG's other posts, they constantly state "Third World democracies are dysfunctional jokes", it's quite funny, yet sad at the same time.

[USMMA_83]

Oh, I don't worry about posts. Funny thing is that if AIG's analysis is true then can he point to any third-world dictatorship that's flourshed into a democracy. I don't think there are any.

[AIG]

All of the E. Asian "tiger" economies of the last several decades were Third World dictatorships which achieved First World status in a generation. You can't say the same for India or any other Third World democracy.