[ZeitgeistSurfer]

Right now, Europe is almost totally dependent on Arab/Muslim oil. One of the factors that will push your scenario into happening (besides the actual destructive act or acts you mention) will be when Russian oil starts to make a real impact in Europe.

[Travis McGee]

I think that not only will Europe be able to subsitute Russian oil, there will be some Islamic countries which will make a side deal: Libya comes to mind.

But the loss of Saudi and Gulf oil will result in an economic shock to the West, no doubt. But the shock will not be fatal for Europe, as it will be for the Muslim world, which will fall to ruin and starvation without its parasitic attachment to the West.

(Unless they figure out how to turn oil into food and clean water and medicine without trading it for Western currency first.)

[aristeides]

Europe and Japan do depend on Middle Eastern oil. However, they can assure themselves of access to it by establishing imperial control over the countries with the oil, as they did before we forced them out. Part of our reason for forcing them out was that, if we controlled the oil, we thereby controlled Europe and Japan. If we can no longer control those Middle Eastern countries, do we have any reason any longer for preventing the Europeans and Japanese from reestablishing imperialism?