Space rock 'on collision course'

BBC ^ | 2002-07-23 | Dr David Whitehouse

[Lorenb420]

An asteroid discovered just weeks ago has become the most threatening object yet detected in space.

A preliminary orbit suggests that 2002 NT7 is on an impact course with Earth on 1 February 2019, although the uncertainties are large.

Astronomers have given the object a rating on the so-called Palermo technical scale of threat of 0.06, making NT7 the first object to be given a positive value.

From its brightness astronomers estimate it is about 2km wide, large enough to cause continent-wide devastation on Earth.

Although astronomers are saying the object definitely merits attention, they expect more observations to show it is not on an Earth-intersecting trajectory.

It was first seen on the night of 5 July, picked up by the Linear Observatory's automated sky survey programme in New Mexico, in the southern US.

Since then astronomers worldwide have been paying close attention to it, amassing almost 200 observations in a few weeks.

Dr Benny Peiser, of Liverpool John Moores University in the UK, told BBC News Online that "this asteroid has now become the most threatening object in the short history of asteroid detection".

NT7 circles the Sun every 837 days and travels in a tilted orbit from about the distance of Mars to just within the Earth's orbit.

Potential devastation

Detailed calculations of its orbit suggest many occasions when its projected path through space intersects the Earth's orbit.

Researchers estimate that on 1 February 2019 its impact velocity on the Earth would be 28km a second - enough to wipe out a continent and cause global climate changes.

However, Dr Peiser was keen to point out that future observations could change the situation.

He said: "This unique event should not diminish the fact that additional observations in coming weeks will almost certainly, we hope, eliminate the current threat."

Easily observable

According to astronomers NT7 will be easily observable for the next 18 months or so, meaning there is no risk of losing the object.

Observations made over that period - and the fact that NT7 is bright enough that it is bound to show up in old photographs - mean that astronomers will soon have a very precise orbit for the object.

Dr Donald Yeomans, of Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, told BBC News Online: "The orbit of this object is rather highly inclined to the Earth's orbit so it has been missed because until recently observers were not looking for such objects in that region of space."

Regarding the possibility of an impact, Dr Yeomans said the uncertainties were large.

"The error in our knowledge of where NT7 will be on 1 February 2019 is large, several tens of millions of kms," he said.

Dr Yeomans told BBC News Online that the world would have to get used to finding more objects like NT7 that, on discovery, look threatening, but then become harmless.

"This is because the problem of Near Earth Objects is now being properly addressed," he said.

[RightWhale]

we should alter its path so that it hits the sun

It's doing about 50,000 mph. We would have to just about stop it cold to put it into the sun. Big delta vee. Much easier to capture it, and we can make handy household objects out of it.

[JmyBryan]

Maybe the Demo rats will pass a law making this sort of thing illegal.

[TigerLikesRooster]

RE #34

I am sure that this asteroid will provide enough material to build Rummy's dream, space-platforms which will drop bombs and beam death ray down to the likes of Osama. U.S. military could be the first to use this material.

[Consort]

2002 NT7 is my laptop operating system.

[BradyLS]

A preliminary orbit suggests that 2002 NT7 is on an impact course with Earth on 1 February 2019, although the uncertainties are large.

I hear Saddam is already calling it The Mother of all Meteor Strikes. BTW, whomever said this was a call for cash had it spot on. It's Y2K all over again!

[Young Werther]

Capture can be accomplished by placing an O'Neill mass driver on the surface and use some of the asteroid's mass as reaction mass to maneuver the asteroid into an earth capture orbit so that it settles at one of the LaGrange points.

If its metalic then make pots and pans and ginzu knifes. If its carbonaceous then the organic chemicals can be processed for a space colony's carbon needs, (potting soil, fertilizer, and even rocket fuel. Robert Zubrin the NASA scientist who has urged a MARS mission has suggested that Phobos and Diemos which are the Martian moons, ( and carbonaceous) could be used to produce methane which could serve as a chemical rocket fuel!)

This could be a generational project to excite this era's rocket scientists! We need another Homer Hickam, (author of Rocket Boys and the star of the movie "October Sky). This past weekend our NSS club set up a display at the Dallas Science Place. We were fortunate to have a visit from two of the Garland High School students who went to the Intel Science Fair in Louisville KY. Their project was an ion engine and the acquitted themselves quite well. Two or the original Rocket boys were in attendance but they didn't have an opportunity to meet them. Still and all the flame is alive and we must continue to fan it!!!!

[TigerLikesRooster]

RE #45

If this rock lands anywhere close to N. America, Wahabis will declare that they planned this Jihad from time immemorial with the help of Allah. :)

But what if this lands on Arabia ? Allah's final judgement for straying from his words. That would be crushing.

[lawdude]

Ah Man!!!!! Im gonna go buy a Ferrari !!!!!!!!!!!

Ya, you just might have it paid for by 2019 (big grin)

[Consort]

Klingon Empire Flags

[RightWhale]

Yeah, I know. My Master's thesis was analyzing the prospects for profit from asteroid mining. Had to figure out the technology, look at the mining industry and world economy, the legal environment. Even calculated some orbits and did some research into rocket science. Presented the report to some hardheaded engineers and scientists and economists. They were skeptical, but eventually bought off on it. Almost 25 years ago.

[Young Werther]

Sounds familiar. I got my MBA in '78 and wrote several papers on the Space Shuttle and O'Neills solar powered generating stations. I read many papers which were presented to the House subcommittee on Space and Technology and was carried away by the promise of mankinds improvment from the wealth that the High Frontier promised. Now its 33 years after Apollo and we're still marking time.

I'm 59, Type II and probably won't see 2019 but I can hope that maybe the small effort I make, to nuture the next generation rocket scientist, will help.

[RightWhale]

We're about in the same boat. It could have happened, and it's probably too late for both of us, but maybe we each helped a little. Eventually it will be done.

[txhurl]

I was pondering a Noah's Ark situation... what items to send into orbit that we'd use to re-biosculpt the damaged area (really the whole planet: 65m yrs ago the shrews re-engineered the biosphere)...theoretically it might take six months for water/wind/atmospheric systems to re-integrate into something vaguely familiar.

Looks like we really are going to lose California, but on the bright side, look what that Cretaceous monster did to develop tourism in the Yucatan.

[Momaw Nadon]

Is anyone else besides the BBC reporting on this 2002 NT7 asteroid?

[rwfromkansas]

"Although astronomers are saying the object definitely merits attention, they expect more observations to show it is not on an Earth-intersecting trajectory."

Translation: We are really scared out of our pants and are hoping against hope that future data shows a course directly attacking Earth is incorrect.

[stands2reason]

Wow. That's the best idea I've heard all year! :-)

[RightWhale]

The best things we can do in the near-term are to develop settlements off-planet -- on Mars and the moon. Self-sufficient settlements. That is, if we imagine that our world and our species are worth saving. Old Noah could have just sat on his country estate like everyone else, like we are doing now.

[rmlew]

The delta-v required to make a 2-kilometer rock in an Earth-crossing orbit hit the sun is almost certainly going to be beyond any human scale.

Would deflecting it to a shorter orbit and slowing it have the effect of causing it to be drwan in by the Suns gravity over time?

The delta-v required to make it miss the Earth, if it's really on a collision course with Earth in 2019, is probably far beyond our capabilities.

Why wouldn't a large explosion at an anlge not change its course and orbit?

[prisoner6]

October Sky

A FANTASTIC movie! It reminded me of when I grew up in the 50's and 60's. A few friends and I were probably the first in our area to build and fly ESTES rockets. (And a few home-made jobs too, hehehehe)

I can't tell you how many times we were chased/warned/scolded by the neighbors, parents and cops for "playing with illegal fireworks".

Interestingly enough and amusing to me, is a program our elementary school has been running for several years. Every October several grades spend time learning about and building ESTES rockets. It culminates with a field trip to the park where the kids get to fly their rockets.

It's a pretty big deal for us with guest speakers at the park teaching the kids how to calculate achieved alltitude, predict where the rockets will land, etcetera. Last year we had three launchers going with a rocket heading skyward evey couple of minutes.

The amusing part to me is sitting back and watching many of the same neighbors/parents/cops who chastised us now taking part in the event. Some of them even help the kids build the rockets or line up guest speakers.

prisoner6

[prisoner6]

Did you or anyone else try running the program backwards?

I came up with several interesting dates before I had to stop. Among the dates:

1998 - Close encounter
1980 - Near miss/impact
1964 - Noteworth encounter
1957 - Noteworthy encounter
1941 - Near miss/impact
1925 - Close encounter

The 1980 and 1998 incidents should have been close enough, and our technology and skywatching advanced to the point to where 2002NT could have been detected. Wonder what happened.

prisoner6