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To: Lazamataz
This is an excellent article, but I have one quibble.

The only bubble left is the housing market and even that is on a shaky foundation of debt.

A bursting housing bubble will not necessarily wipe you out like a bursting equity bubble can. When your Enron or WorldCom or Global Crossing stock is gone, it's gone. The nice thing about housing is that it has inherent value. You can still live in it even when the housing market craters. There's nothing to do with stock in a company that no longer exists. Your house will normally be worth at least SOMETHING when the dust settles, unlike stock in a dead company.

Of course, if you lose your ability to pay the mortgage (assuming you have one), you're sunk. This applies to real estate investors as well as to home owners. There's a down side to every investment.

I'd like to hear the "analysts" who helped pump up the equities bubble admit holding stocks can be ruinous in a bear market. But we are still hearing about nearing the bottom and holding on for the upturn. Did these people call the "top" in 2000? No. And they can't call the bottom.

34 posted on 07/23/2002 6:19:23 PM PDT by Semi Civil Servant
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To: Semi Civil Servant
Of course, if you lose your ability to pay the mortgage (assuming you have one), you're sunk. This applies to real estate investors as well as to home owners. There's a down side to every investment.

This is the part of the housing market that is at risk. There are a lot of loans out there that are less than 10% equity, including a rather large 2nd mortgage market. Now, most of us have at least 20% equity and can survive a bad market better than others can. But, if things get tight in the job market, the housing situation will quickly grow worse for many people.

The stock market isn't directly connected to the consumer market, but it isn't disconnected either. People have savings in the markets. If the value goes down enough, they will view it as threatening and will tighten up their spending. This will be the downward effect that could tank the economy.

39 posted on 07/23/2002 6:28:24 PM PDT by meyer
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To: Semi Civil Servant
A bursting housing bubble will not necessarily wipe you out like a bursting equity bubble can. When your Enron or WorldCom or Global Crossing stock is gone, it's gone. The nice thing about housing is that it has inherent value. You can still live in it even when the housing market craters. There's nothing to do with stock in a company that no longer exists. Your house will normally be worth at least SOMETHING when the dust settles, unlike stock in a dead company.

Eventually, the GSE money pumps will run out of suckers. A Fannie Mae implosion would simultaneously compromise the bond, stock and real estate markets.

40 posted on 07/23/2002 6:31:58 PM PDT by AdamSelene235
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To: Semi Civil Servant
"The nice thing about housing is that it has inherent value."

Don't tell your bank. They might foreclose. ;)

"You can still live in it even when the housing market craters."

In Texas, sure.

52 posted on 07/23/2002 7:24:17 PM PDT by Tauzero
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