Correct. Insert your own probality, your answer will be very low.
or to assume that they can be multiplied to arrive at an overall probability.,
Probality theory.
A very bad application of probability theory at that. We know that a single hair of Danielle's was found in the sink trap of the motor home. We know there are multiple ways it could have gotten there, simply because we are able to imagine multiple ways, and don't actually know the answer. The sum of the probabilities of all the ways it could have gotten there must be equal to 1.
This, then is the calculation that you're really interested in - not some single path theory. It's a much more difficult problem (in fact, it's not solvable, since you must assign a probability to the paths you have not thought of). But then, that's why we don't put probability evidence in a courtroom, and why it's not taken too seriously on these boards.
Drew Garrett
According to probability theory, this planet doesn't exist.
Makin' it up, makin' it up.
The events described are not card draws. I think your scenario might be a Bays' Theorem problem.
But really it's a quantum probability issue, what with all the spin I detect on it.