Umm.. The gear shifting example is a series of related events that are expected to progress in a particular fashion.
VRWC's post was dealing with independent events happening in a particular series.
More like a series of coin tosses or lotto numbers.
My point, AS STATED IN THE POST to which you wouldn't have replied had you finished reading, was that he was just making up numbers less than one and multiplying them. He has no reasonable basis in the whole wide world to arrive at those numbers or to assume that they can be multiplied to arrive at an overall probability.
The other, hinted point was that just as shifting gears is deterministic and so, despite the odds, quite expectable -- so, too could the hair have gotten into the drain as the deterministic and expectable result of someone putting it there, in the last place they would look after THEY DIDN'T FIND ANY EVIDENCE.