No, Bush will not "wag the dog". He will be accused of it but even if he were that craven, I firmly believe Rumsfeld and Rice would resign in protest.
Wagging the dog is when the President starts a war for no reason other than to deflect attention away from a public scandal, like Klintoon did when he killed thousands of innocent Christian serbians to put the Islamic Al-Queada ally KLA in power in Kosovo.
Bush will merely see to it that he times this war on Iraq better than his father did, who saw his 90% approval rating destroyed by the Democrats and the press well before his reeelection bid.