Astronomers Hope to Find E.T. in Next 25 Years

Reuters via Yahoo! ^ | Tue Jul 16, 6:34 AM ET | By Belinda Goldsmith

[Momaw Nadon]

CANBERRA (Reuters) - Scientists searching the stars for aliens are convinced an E.T. is out there -- it's just that they haven't had the know-how to detect such a being.

But now technological advances have opened the way for scientists to check millions of previously unknown star systems, dramatically increasing the chances of finding intelligent life in outer space in the next 25 years, the world's largest private extraterrestrial agency believes.

"We're looking for needles in the haystack that is our galaxy, but there could be thousands of needles out there," Seth Shostak, the senior astronomer at California's non-profit Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence ( news - web sites) (SETI) Institute, told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday.

"If that's the case, with the number of new star systems we now hope to check, we should find one of those in the next 25 years."

But Shostak, visiting Australia to attend a conference on extraterrestrial research, said detecting alien life, like the big-eyed alien in the film E.T., was only the start.

"Even if we detect life out there, we'll still know nothing about what form of life we have detected and I doubt they'll be able -- or want -- to communicate with us," Shostak said.

Since it was founded in 1984, the SETI Institute has monitored radio signals, hoping to pick up a transmission from outer space. Its Project Phoenix conducts two annual three-week sessions on a radio telescope at Arecibo, Puerto Rico.

Project Phoenix, widely seen as the inspiration for the 1997 film "Contact" starring Jodie Foster, which depicted a search for life beyond earth, is the privately funded successor to an original NASA ( news - web sites) program that was canceled in 1993 amid much skepticism by the U.S. Congress.

But the search has been slow. About 500 of 1,000 targeted stars have been examined -- and no extraterrestrial transmissions have been detected.

E.T. NOT ON THE LINE

"We do get signals all the time but when checked out they have all been human made...and are not from E.T., more AT&T," said Shostak.

He said the privately-funded institute was developing a giant US$26 million telescope to start operating in 2005 that can search the stars for signals at least 100 times faster.

The so-called Allen Telescope Array, named after sponsor and Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, is a network of more than 350, six-meter (20-foot) satellite dishes with a collecting area exceeding that of a 100-meter (338-foot) telescope.

The Allen array, to be built at the Hat Creek Observatory about 290 miles northeast of San Fransciso, will also expand the institute's stellar reconnaissance to 100,000 or even one million nearby stars, searching 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

Shostak said he is convinced there is intelligent life out there -- but don't expect to find a loveable, boggle-eyed E.T..

He said if any aliens share the same carbon-based organic chemistry as humans, they would probably have a central processing system, eyes, a mouth or two, legs and some form of reproduction.

But Shostak thinks any intelligent extraterrestrial life will have gone light years beyond the intelligence of man.

"What we are more likely to hear will be so far beyond our own level that it might not be biological anymore but some artificial form of life," he said. "Don't expect a blobby, squishy alien to be on the end of the line."

[RadioAstronomer]

How high into the EM spectrum are you searching? What waveforms are you looking for? Last I knew anything techincal about SETI, 20+ years ago, they were looking for extremely narrow band, long persistance signals. Not like anything we use, which are either short duration, or wide bandwidth, or both of course. We are also moving way up in the spectrum. It's not completely out the question to use lasers for space to space communications, in fact I thinks we've done that already, at least on an experimental basis

My search covers a broad band of frequencies in the mid microwave region that is above the galactic Halo noise and below the atmospheric attenuation region. We are looking at millions of frequencies for the duration of the object while it’s within the beam width of the antenna. We are also looking for extremely narrowband CW signals that would have to have been produced artificially and we are also are taking into account planetary Doppler effects and rejecting any signals that do not exhibit these phenomena. The other safeguards in the system are multiple antennas in various areas to eliminate a local source of noise (or internally generated noise) as a false positive. Even then we would reserve judgment unless we could confirm an off axis attenuation and repeatability over time. If a separate system sees the same signal with all of these criteria in place, we would then have a candidate for further study. I adhere to the statement that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

[RadioAstronomer]

What I hate the most is that SETI is largely lumped in with Crop circles and UFO groups. SETI (using radio astronomy) is a long way from both.

[LRS]

Actually, I'd bet that a good number of Christians would claim that the aliens are really demons.

I am thinking you are underestimating Christians, tho' I do admit that there are some sects that refuse to accept that man landed on the moon and there would be some sects claiming alien beings to be demonic at first, (and even some who would insist upon it even after several years passed by, afterall, some people are so willing to believe in conspiracies, theyjust can't help themselves, and some would always doubt the aliens) (btw- I tend to be an agnostic, so I am not defending myself religious beliefs that statement.)

However, what happens IF some Little Grren Dudes land and don't pray 5 times a day while bowing towards Mecca? Now, not all memebers of a group are identicle, but what would be the reaction of Islamic fundamentalists?

[Dimensio]

I am thinking you are underestimating Christians

Actually, my comments come from what I've heard from a Christian warning against trusting extraterrestrials.

[Momaw Nadon]

However, what happens IF some Little Green Dudes land and don't pray 5 times a day while bowing towards Mecca?

I think that if some Little Green Dudes land and don't pray 5 times a day while bowing towards Mecca, the Islamic Fundamentalists will call them infidels, issue a fatwah against them, and declare a jihad on them.

[LRS]

I see where you are coming from, (no offense to any Christians), as some fundamentalists do seem to interpet UFO reports as being sightings of spiritual beings, and I am aware of your "trusting extraterrestrials" comments. (Me? Well, I would follow the old Reagan motto of "trust but verify".) I just think that most people of the Christian faith(s) would realise alien life as being just that: alien life, while a minority would had trouble coming to grips with it...

[LRS]

Oh great. The first intergalatic saucer hijackings.... ;-)

[FormerLurker]

Definitions trotted out as if they were proof of your thesis.

You apparently needed to be educated as to the meaning of the word "delusional", as you were throwing it around in an invective manner, yet the word more appropriately applied to your own behavior.

Do you sometimes post under another name or are you "doing" somebody whose style you admire?

So OTHER people have found it necessary to post you definitions? That doesn't that surprise me. And no, I'm not somebody else. Do you hear voices?

In explaining the origin of something like a lot of flattened corn, the default assumption for most people is never going to be "little green men" for whom there is nothing but anecdotal evidence.

We aren't talking about "lots of flattened corn". The formations in question are a far cry from simply being a flattened field of crops. Why don't you take a look at the complexity involved in the following formation, and tell me again that it's just flattened crops, in this case wheat..

Additionally, I've never mentioned anything about "little green men". I find it amusing that you use that disparaging term when you apparently are in favor of trying to find "little green men" via the SETI project. Why would you feel the need to search for ET when you dispagarge those who might wonder about crop circles?

You continue to have this irrational, unfounded belief that ALL crop circles are man-made hoaxes. Even the "Circle Makers", argueably the best hoax team ever assembled, cannot duplicate the symmetry and geometric precision of GENUINE crop circles. When given several DAYS in New Zealand to construct a authentic looking crop circle, they fell short of the symmetry and precision of REAL formations. The stalks of wheat in their formation were broken, not bent at 90 angles as in the real thing. Also missing were the EM field changes, increased background radiation, and celluar changes within the wheat. REAL crop circles have been seen that were formed in less than 45 minutes in broad daylight, as in the Julia formation shown below which was formed in July of 1996.

Additionally, that formation was right next to a busy highway, so any pranksters would have been noticed.

You might just want to take a peek at the link below, which shows a crop circle being formed in less than a minute.

Crop Circle forming

I wondered if you were familiar with Occam's Razor. In fact, I guessed not.

From What is Occam's Razor?..

"Pluralitas non est ponenda sine neccesitate", or, "Entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily".

Many scientists have adopted or reinvented Occam's Razor as in Leibniz' "identity of observables" and Isaac Newton stated the rule: "We are to admit no more causes of natural things than such as are both true and sufficient to explain their appearances."

The most useful statement of the principle for scientists is,

"when you have two competing theories which make exactly the same predictions, the one that is simpler is the better."

So here we are with crop circles being formed with perfect geometric precision and symmetry at night within a span of 4 hours. There is celluar changes in the crops, they are bent at 90 angles without damage or sign of being trampled. There is increased background radiation, and there are magnetic field disturbances as well as RF emissions in the MHz range. Not even including the video that I've linked above, Occam's Razor would suggest something other than Doug and Dave (a pair of geriatric gentlemen who've claimed to be the perpetrators of crop circle hoaxes, one of whom died in 1998) is responsible for these formations. If you look at even the "Circle Makers", formerlly known as "Team Satan", who've never been able to reproduce the symmetery and geometric perfection of GENUINE formations, again, Occam's razor would eliminate THEM from the list of possibilities.

There are other forms of Occam's Razor. The common saying that "If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck" is one. For most people, your crop circles quack like a prank.

You quack like you're in denial. The GENUINE formations are obviously formed by forces MUCH more complex than planks and ropes, and appear to created by entities that might just be trying to get our attention. If you admit the fact that more than likely there ARE extraterrestrial entities (as you desire to search for them through the SETI project), what makes you think they aren't capable of "signalling" us in this manner?

As such, I'm in agreement with your closing remarks..

Yes, Occam's Razor suggests what should be the default assumption and what should have the burden of proof. It doesn't tell you what is true, although it should give you ideas.

[FormerLurker]

That said, I think there could perhaps be an undiscovered natural phenomenon that causes some of the circular ones.

What do you think about the video linked below?

Crop Circle Forming

[balrog666]

I can't decide if this guy's doing a full-tilt medved homage, or if he's a whacked-out troller, or whether he's really nuts. It's funny enough in itself but not interesting enough to track him down.

[Tom Bombadil]

I don't "believe" one way or the other. All I do is search. If we are alone that is momentous, if we are not, that too is momentous. SETI is win win science.

That sounds better than "should find..." which seems to assume an outcome. Keep up the good work.

[balrog666]

Funny, I'd always figured that Brussels Sprouts were demonic little space cabbages. ;-D

And so they are:

The Sprouts of Wrath

[balrog666]

"Kiss my ass" was a Heinlein reference.

I'll have to remember that one.

[Tom Bombadil]

The Hubble sees so many stars it borders on incomprehensible

I do find it incomprehensible. And it probably is safe to assume a great number of planets, given our own solar system. One still has to be careful that the language used in communicating research goals does not frame them as if they were already conclusions.

What got my attention was the apparent assumption of research outcome. "25 years" not only sounded optimistic to me, it seemed to presume an outcome. That is why I said, "they don't know". They are only hoping.

[VadeRetro]

You quack like you're in denial. The GENUINE formations are obviously formed by forces MUCH more complex than planks and ropes, and appear to created by entities that might just be trying to get our attention. If you admit the fact that more than likely there ARE extraterrestrial entities (as you desire to search for them through the SETI project), what makes you think they aren't capable of "signalling" us in this manner?

I'll grant you that your video was not done with planks and ropes. What evidence do you have that it was done with aliens?

[Tom Bombadil]

But what's pretentious about keeping an open mind?

Keeping an open mind is a little different than presuming research outcomes by saying "within 25 years,we should find..." In reality, we truly don't know what the research is going to reveal. People may hope, they may believe, they may assemble assumptions, but they still don't know. Maybe the sentence should have read "we hope to find..... within 25 years.

[VadeRetro]

It's funny enough in itself but not interesting enough to track him down.

Yeah. Been here, done this. Just change the delusional system, everything else is the same.

[balrog666]

I'll grant you that your video was not done with planks and ropes.

No? How else? It's a stop-motion video filmed with infrared filters. It could have lasted 30 or 300 minutes. A little video editting has sped it up and removed most of the people action. If fact, didn't I see this exact one on television a year or two ago?

psst-This sure looks like a medved-impersonation to me.

[VadeRetro]

No? How else? It's a stop-motion video filmed with infrared filters. It could have lasted 30 or 300 minutes. A little video editting has sped it up and removed most of the people action. If fact, didn't I see this exact one on television a year or two ago?

I wasn't assuming anything about the crop circles being real. The resolution is poor enough they could have been a bad animation effect, which if you're right about stop-motion the flying white dots are. Those latter don't seem to make shadows or have any details, for sure.

[VadeRetro]

This sure looks like a medved-impersonation to me.

The dictionary-waving put me in mind of someone else, actually.