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The primary purpose of having a defense is deterrence. If deterrence fails, regardless of whether we ultimately prevail, we will have lost. We will have lost millions of American lives (including you, or someone you care about). We will have lost our security. We will have sacrificed rights that will make the traditional concept of "freedom" forever different.

The issue is not whether the U.S. can "win" a war against China, or more specifically, a Chinese led Axis, but whether we can convincingly deter such a war. The evidence is not good. The Chinese believe they can succeed in a war against the U.S., and that they could sustain the casualties such a war would entail.

If L.A. or N.Y. disappears tomorrow in a nuclear holocaust from a terrorist nuke, or a biological epidemic sweeps through the West, it will be months or years before the U.S. identifies the culprit. The Chinese, meanwhile, will move decisively to capitalize on the resulting vacuum in U.S. power, while we try to grapple with disaster, a collapsing economy, political unrest, and a dozen military situations around the world.

The threat has never been more real. I hope Bush's crew has a better handle on this behind the scenes, than is evident in public.

I think China's real move might actually be Russia. China has a huge population. Russia beyond the Urals is open and enormous. China has been chummy lately with Indonesia, which for its size is densely populated. They, at a future date, and in conjunction with the PRC, may make a move on Australia if the US and the UK are otherwise engaged.

The primary purpose of having a defense is deterrence. If deterrence fails, regardless of whether we ultimately prevail, we will have lost. We will have lost millions of American lives (including you, or someone you care about). We will have lost our security.

Excellent post. Almost every time in the last 100 years we've had to go to war, it's because we've been "sucker-punched." In WW I, the Germans assumed that Wilson's 1916 re-election campaign slogan "He kept us out of war" meant that he would avoid war with Germany at all costs, and commenced unrestricted submarine warfare at the start of 1917. The surprise attack at Pearl Harbor sucked us into WW II. Korea was a double "sucker punch": by the North Koreans after they deduced from remarks by Dean Acheson about America's defense perimeter in Asia that we would not defend South Korea, and the second time by the ChiComs who fell on totally unprepared and overextended American forces in late 1950.

The ChiComs are doing us a favor in telegraphing their punch. For the love of God and country, let's be ready to block it this time.