If Bush decides to attack Iraq, the strike could be sudden

Associated Press ^ | 7-10-02 | SALLY BUZBEE

[Thinkin' Gal]

Who is like Bush?

[Aric2000]

So, Bush says that it is OK to whack a political leader, mainly Saddam, tells the CIA to get to it. The CIA says, we know he is in Baghdad, but we need him to move around to get a shot at him. OK, disinformation campaign coming right up. Get Saddam nervous enough to move from his palace and take him out enroute to a bunker on the outskirts of Baghdad, taking out the rest of his leadership and his son at the same time.

Just as likely as anything else I suppose!!

[demlosers]

This article talks about 50,000 men and (I assume) heavy equipment to supply the same number. I hope we have a way to provide reinforcements. American pride tells me 50,000 is plenty -- but no smart commander would attack Iraq with 50,000 men and no way to reinforce quickly.

No doubt about that. Follow on troops would be behind the initial 50,000. gotta have back-up.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

You could be right, or you could be hitting the bong a bit too often.

[demlosers]

It will seem that way when Abrams tanks start coming out of the woodwork.

Do you care to speculate how many Abrams are on those Roll-on/Roll-off pre-positioned ships?

[LibWhacker]

To find Saddam, you watch the guys he has to meet with, and take him out when arrives.

Bingo! When our operatives on the ground tell us Saddam's generals have all converged at one spot, chances are we'll be able to get Saddam, too, in any attack on them. If not, it's always good to take out their top brass. I would hope we would use a rather powerful nuke in this situation, particularly if the site isn't too close to a large city, just in case the meeting is scheduled to take place 90 feet underground.

[Freebird Forever]

He still hasn't been hit with the tunnel plan.

Well, since you went and let the cat out of the bag.... I have heard that some Mexican narco-tunnel engineers made an interesting plea bargain recently.

[Tallguy]

I'd bet the build up is in progress.

I agree that the equipment has been moving for quite some time and that might knock a bit off the lead-time. But it still takes time to "mate" the troops with their equipment once it arrives in theater. Then you need to exercize the men with their new equipment at every level from squad on up to division. As long as the bulk of the troops are based beyond the range of Saddam's long-range weapons systems they should be OK.

BTW, I would look for more battles like the one at Khafji where a few US Marine forward observers together with TacAir were able to destroy 1 armored brigade and severly maul a second.

[Allrightnow]

"Do you care to speculate how many Abrams are on those Roll-on/Roll-off pre-positioned ships?"

If our last round of tank battles with Iraq is any indicator, I think about 20 should do.

[varina davis]

Is it just me or is the media deliberately trying to warn Saddam of any potential attack?

Could be, so civilians can protect themselves as much as humanly possible.

[CIB-173RDABN]

This is what I really enjoy about FreeRepublic, news and some serious discussion.

I am no expert in military planning, but I would guess we have been moving equipment into the area since September 12th.

I agree with the person that pointed out the real problem is the Scuds, and the type of payload that can be delivered. I am sure we were able to convince Saddam in the first war there would be some serious consequences if biological or chemical weapons were used. But this time around he knows he is a dead man. Regardless of any other goals, his death is close to the top of the list. He has little to lose by using his biological and chemical weapons.

Again, if I had to guess, I would say we are spending time tracking down those Scuds so that they can be taken out in a first strike. I would also guess we are working on some sort of missile defense for our troops and Israel.

I do not believe there will be a big build up, I think it will be a surprise to almost everyone (especially those in the media who have not gotten anything right.

The only thing I am sure of is that Saddam is a dead man walking.

[chuknospam]

I kinda like the idea of sending in the spooks and hearing about how Sadaam dies in a suspicious bathtub drowning or camel accident.

[SGCOS]

...Sadaam dies in a suspicious bathtub drowning or camel accident.

The secret weapon.....

The Camels of Carnage !!

[r9etb]

camel accident

It gives the term "died in the saddle" an entirely new meaning.... I wonder which one's on top.

[Tallguy]

Again, if I had to guess, I would say we are spending time tracking down those Scuds so that they can be taken out in a first strike.

Many military experts have been saying that the "Afghanistan model" can't work against Iraq. Probably so, but numerous, light SOF teams and Kurdish allies will be invaluable in any Scud-hunt in the western desert. The USAF just wasn't quite up to the job last time when it came to detecting-targeting-firing on the Scud launchers. Apparently the Iraqi missiliers were pretty good at getting a shot off before any ordnance could be delivered on their heads. Predator might change this, but I doubt that we have enough of the armed variant to make a significant difference.

Intel says that Iraq probably has only a couple dozen Scuds left. Fine. But what if he arms them with Bio/Chem/Nuke warheads? A few missiles so armed can make a powerful strategic deterrent.

[CIB-173RDABN]

Tallguy, I think you pin pointed our problem. If we miss just one SCUD,it could do a lot of damage.

Again if I was to guess, we will either locate all of the SCUDS or have a system in place to take them out when they launch.

[demlosers]

The USAF just wasn't quite up to the job last time when it came to detecting-targeting-firing on the Scud launchers. Apparently the Iraqi missiliers were pretty good at getting a shot off before any ordnance could be delivered on their heads. Predator might change this, but I doubt that we have enough of the armed variant to make a significant difference.

A possible solution for the Scud problem. We may could have a couple of laser platforms for next year? See below:

Published: Friday, May 31, 2002
747-400 with anti-missile laser ready for testing

Herald staff

The first airborne laser anti-missile aircraft is ready for ground and flight testing, the Boeing Co. announced Thursday.

the only way to repeatedly hit a "bullet" will be with a laser beam

Workers at Boeing's Wichita, Kan., modification center have completed the overhaul of the Everett-build 747-400F that will carry the laser system, the company said.

It was the largest modification project ever done by Boeing, dwarfing such modifications as Air Force One and requiring about 1.6 million hours of work, the company said.

The plane is intended to be the first of a fleet of seven jets that will use chemically generated laser beams to shoot down enemy missiles shortly after they are launched. The tightly focused photon beams wouldn't actually explode the missiles, but they would melt through their sides, causing the pressurized rocket fuel within to burst.

The work done at Wichita included modifying the front of the plane so it could handle the 1,500-pound laser turret mounted in the nose, and strengthening the floor to hold up the area in the back of the plane where chemicals will be mixed to create the energy for the laser's beam. Boeing workers also installed an airtight bulkhead to seal off the crew area from the space where chemicals will be mixed.

The first flight test is expected this summer, Boeing officials said. The plane will actually return to Everett sometime toward the end of this year to be painted, Boeing spokesman Bob Smith said.

After that, it will be flown to Edwards Air Force Base in California, where the laser will be installed.

The first live-fire test against an actual missile is scheduled for sometime in 2004. That's about a year behind the original schedule.

[Kermit]

I believe once a serious attack begins, Saddam's regime is going to collapse like a house of cards. Would you want to be the last Iraqi to die for Saddam?

[Magnum44]

It's new moon here, so since Iraq is on the opposite side of the world, it might be a full moon there.

I know your joking when you say this. Right?