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Sorry, Pete. AB's got a point. If the statistics comparing "most important religious groups" are correct, then there must be at least 4.7 times as many Catholics in the world as there are Protestants.

Maybe I am a little thick today, but I don't see where you get your 4.7 number from the growth rates.

But it's impossible to make that consistent with the claimed Christian growth rate since 1970. You're the actuary -- work it out for yourself.

The Christian growth rate data is for Evangelicals only (I mentioned the unfortunate title choice in a prior post). Note the 7.5% figure for 2001, which lines up with the numbers shown in the "Important Religious Groups" chart.

Frankly, the statistics are likely constructed of whole cloth.

There is always that chance so a second source would come in handy. I was able to find a second source at http://www.religioustolerance.org/worldrel.htm. I think you would agree that these folks have a slightly different agenda than the original source I posted above. Here is what they have to say:

Within Christianity, not all denominations have the same growth rate. Some annual growth rates are:

Pentecostals: 8.1%
Evangelicals: 5.4%;
All Protestants: 3.3%
Roman Catholics and Others: 1.3%

Note that the original source combined Pentecostals and Evangelicals and here there are shown separately. While I don't have the counts to use as weights, the 7.5% shown in the original source is reasonably consistent with some blend of 5.4% and 8.1% shown above. While the other categories don't match exactly, they are reasonably consistent.

Having said all that, my intention in posting the data in the first place was to illustrate that the evangelical population is NOT decreasing. The data I have referenced supports that. If anyone can find data showing a decrease in the evangelical population, I would be happy to review it.

"...I don't see where you get your 4.7 number from the growth rates."

Its the smallest possible ratio of Catholics to Protestants given the claimed growth rates for Catholics, Protestants, Evangelicals, and "All Christians." You have to assume that the number of Evangelicals is 0, because any other non-negative number makes the ratio even larger.

If "Christian growth rate" refers to Evangelicals only, then the same table claims that there were 899 million of them last year. That would be about 1 out of every 2 Christians. I don't believe it, and in any event, its inconsistent with the statistics in the other table. "Christian growth rate" really does mean Christians of any stripe.

Thanks for the link to the religious tolerance site! There are some problems with their statistics, too (e.g., the % of Christians can't be dropping given the numbers cited, and there are over 50 million Shintoists in Japan), but I bookmarked it anyway.

Sorry if I sounded flip earlier, but I sometimes get put out when I see claims made on the basis of statistics that don't pass a cursory sanity check. I agree with you on the growth of Evangelicals.

Those statistics may be only for the USA, or only for the Western Hemisphere. Just maybe, they have some validity for the world, but require explanation. It is true, though, that Evangelical and Pentecostal sects are growing much faster even than Mormons, whose vaunted growth proves to be almost entirely from procreation: their numerous converts are balanced by large numbers leaving through the back doors.

BTW I am an actuary too, though have not practiced as such for many years...

This "pastor" at age 23 probably is rather self-proclaimed. It was never stated that he held valid ordination from any organized denomination of Christians. This boy will recover from his physical injuries, and I hope goes on to maturity in Christ. As to his assailants, we could only hope that they repent and turn to the Lord too. He is able to forgive and cleanse them of sin if they will turn to Him.

Oh BTW, there are almost exactly 4.7 times as many Catholic and Orthodox Christians in the entire world, as there are Protestants.

Estimates for 2000 have only 289 million Protestants, but some 1.3 million Catholics and Orthodox. Of course, the latter are far more generous and liberal in who they will include, namely almost everyone baptized in them at birth is counted for life, while most Protestant groups count only adults, and delete those who disappear or apostasize, or join other religions...